Investing General Discussion

Furry · Apr 3, 2020

More ETNs blowing up.

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Pops · Apr 3, 2020

Ford baby bond 10.4%.

Pops · Apr 3, 2020

Furry said:
More ETNs blowing up.

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That one's futures thank god.

Furry · Apr 3, 2020

Coming up on that bell. Be interesting to see how scared people are of the weekend again.

Sanrith Descartes · Apr 3, 2020

I was looking at XOM options for May 1st.
At the money calls, $2.00 bid $5.60 ask
At the money puts, $1.13 bid and $5.55 ask

Look at those spreads. Translation. No one has any idea where the fuck XOM is going to be in a month.

Blazin · Apr 3, 2020

Sanrith Descartes said:
I was looking at XOM options for May 1st.
At the money calls, $2.00 bid $5.60 ask
At the money puts, $1.13 bid and $5.55 ask

Look at those spreads. Translation. No one has any idea where the fuck XOM is going to be in a month.

when they are that far apart you have to slowly creep your price to see if the algos adjust to your new price. When they stop following you let's you know you are getting closer to the real price. The mid is not always the price. The bid could be close and ask way off. It's a real PITA. This is one of the reasons I stick to monthly expiration only on individual names at least improves the issue a little bit, but likely still have to be careful when entering and exiting. I have learned that I can get a computer to take my trade sometimes with a little shock and awe past the bid and ask but I'm usually doing 10-20 contracts to get that to work.

Pops · Apr 3, 2020

Hah, how you guys trade those.

Sanrith Descartes · Apr 3, 2020

I saw what you meant about volatility being priced in. At the money options for everything I looked at were either over priced or really over priced. I wish I had a program that could just dump reams of option pricing data into a spreadsheet so I could search for bargains.

Daidraco · Apr 4, 2020

If I was more than just an opportunity stock trader, I would probably wish for the inside info on all the algo's that these companies are using to watch stocks. I'm starting to feel like they control the market, more so than analyze it.

Furry · Apr 4, 2020

Trying to beat algos at their game requires being an algo yourself. Saying they control the market is a step too far, though. It's more like a huge grazing heard that occasionally gets spooked one way or the other. Normal people should just look for opportunities and generally invest long.

Sanrith Descartes · Apr 4, 2020

Daidraco said:
If I was more than just an opportunity stock trader, I would probably wish for the inside info on all the algo's that these companies are using to watch stocks. I'm starting to feel like they control the market, more so than analyze it.

Algos are just programs written by really smart people. They do what you could do, just like a bazillion times faster and more efficiently. Can you read all the headlines and look for tradeable news? Yep. So do they. Just a bazillion times faster. Can you calculate the odds of a certain variable impacting a stock price by analyzing every trade that stock has made in the last 50 years? Yep. So can they. Just a bazillion times faster.

Because they are programs they are susceptible to manipulation (like Trump tweets). Don't fight the algos as you won't win. Understand what they are and use it to your advantage. See a Trump tweet about "spoke to Russia and MBS and we have a "deal" to cut oil production" and know that oil is going to go parabolic off it. If you think the tweet is bullshit you can play the spike as the next OPEC statement says "we have not spoken to Russia" will crash oil back down.

Don't fight the algos. Play their game.

Furry · Apr 5, 2020

Sanrith Descartes said:
Don't fight the algos. Play their game.

Opportunities come betting against algos, but it's gambling along the line of options.

Take crude futures. Algos have it priced in that OPEC will come to some sort of deal. If you think they're wrong and they all just continue fighting, crude prices gonna be FREE$$ dollars overnight. They're to the point where shit is literally gonna be spilling out onto the streets soon with most storage gone and all tankers full.

Sanrith Descartes · Apr 5, 2020

The OPEC meeting got pushed out to Thursday (from tomorrow). I expect this to hammer oil and consequently the overall market tomorrow. Unless there is some really good news dropping today, tomorrow should have more blood running in the streets. Or maybe just what passes for a "normal" down day in our new world. Down 3 or 4%.

Furry · Apr 5, 2020

Sanrith Descartes said:
The OPEC meeting got pushed out to Thursday (from tomorrow). I expect this to hammer oil and consequently the overall market tomorrow. Unless there is some really good news dropping today, tomorrow should have more blood running in the streets. Or maybe just what passes for a "normal" down day in our new world. Down 3 or 4%.

I'm looking forward to the futures later today. Been a while since we've had a limit down, so I feel like we're getting due.

Jysin · Apr 5, 2020

Headline on Bloomberg was all about Trump comparing C19 deaths in the coming weeks to world wars. Whether true or not, those headlines have spooked markets over the last month. Tomorrow could be bloody.. Or, as

Sanrith Descartes said.. Just "the new normal" world we live in.

Sanrith Descartes · Apr 5, 2020

"US and Canada discuss putting tariffs on Russian and KSA oil".

Ps.. if you are into the energy sector and oil in particular, Chigrl lives and breathes the oil sector. Lots of good info there.

Furry · Apr 5, 2020

Sanrith Descartes said:
"US and Canada discuss putting tariffs on Russian and KSA oil".

Ps.. if you are into the energy sector and oil in particular, Chigrl lives and breathes the oil sector. Lots of good info there.

Alberta really, really, really wanting tariffs of oil coming into america is something I can believe.

America going along with it? That I can't see happening. Our natural gas situation is already stupid enough. Add in reprisal tariffs and it makes no sense to us.

brekk · Apr 5, 2020

I thought we were an exporter of Oil since last year.

Excluding Canada imports.

Fogel · Apr 5, 2020

brekk said:
I thought we were an exporter of Oil since last year.

Excluding Canada imports.

Technically yes, but if OPEC keeps the taps flowing, it becomes cheaper to import it then to buy domestic, or our domestic goes bankrupt trying to keep up with OPEC prices.

Sanrith Descartes · Apr 5, 2020

If KSA doesn't like tariffs what will they do? Stop buying or tarriff our weapons we sell them? Nope. Stop selling us oil? Nope

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