Investing General Discussion

Sanrith Descartes · Jan 24, 2022

Blazin said:
It's never one thing, I watch so many inputs. I had made a post the other day about that subjective gut read of large amounts of data. Some people try to more strictly quantify a model with many inputs, I have always stuck to my intuitional read of many inputs. I watch individual names in certain sectors, counter asset movements, the vix, moving averages, volume, media as a contra indicator (including this thread). More than 50 different inputs that I study.

If you want to hone in on "one thing" for this one. Load up NFLX chart and take look at 11:20 till 12:30. There was a sentiment turn on an insane flush. This setup in NFLX on the 5m is by far my favorite pattern, classic double tap that doesn't go lower and recapture of previous hump. I'm like BUbbles in a room of 12yr asian boys, I just can't help myself on a setup like that. I flicked to several more names to check that I was satisfied they had hit my flush out goals and then jumped in.

I was really shocked you bought into NFLX. Of all the names... NFLX. At least it wasn't PTON.

LachiusTZ · Jan 24, 2022

Oh dont worry, I'll always inject a steady stream of stupid in this thread.

My etrade acct has replaced my once or twice a year gambling trips.

NO WHAMMIES!

Lightning Lord Rule · Jan 24, 2022

Sanrith Descartes said:
I was really shocked you bought into NFLX. Of all the names... NFLX. At least it wasn't PTON.

I think he meant he was using NFLX as an indicator?

Sanrith Descartes · Jan 24, 2022

Lightning Lord Rule said:
I think he meant he was using NFLX as an indicator?

I thought I saw him post a buy order on NFLX this morning. Maybe I misread it and it was just a chart.

Edit: I looked back, NFLX order filled at $360 around 1pm.

Fogel · Jan 24, 2022

LachiusTZ said:
I'm so glad I took out most of my money.

SPXU is a real whore.

You were buying/selling options, right? One thing I've learned, when the VIX is high, you can't swing options, only scalp. Trying to swing options when the VIX is high will kill you with how fast the premium moves.

Borzak · Jan 24, 2022

All my long term stuff is in in index ETF's. I swing trade from time to time in industries I deal with short term. I don't know but reading online sometimes (not here) a fair number of people seem to be speculators and not investors. Flavor of the day they heard from somewhere else and on top of that the thought of put money in and leave it long term is almost a new thought. Of course I still read of people a year from retirement and have never ever re allocated any risk at all. It was put in and set it and forget it.

Blazin · Jan 24, 2022

Sanrith Descartes said:
I was really shocked you bought into NFLX. Of all the names... NFLX. At least it wasn't PTON.

Was already up $27/share by EOD on the trade you don't like making money? Some of that old Sanrith coming back, you're going to start grumbling about schiller PE next.

You didn't see (I bought for my long term divy portfolio) attached to that trade.

LachiusTZ · Jan 24, 2022

Fogel said:
You were buying/selling options, right? One thing I've learned, when the VIX is high, you can't swing options, only scalp. Trying to swing options when the VIX is high will kill you with how fast the premium moves.

Not mostly.

I simply took a lot of money off the table so I wouldn't lose it learning over the next year.

But yeah, gamma, Delta, whatever the fuck it is that erodes value over time usually fucks me with options.

I'm ok losing thousands learning, but not tens of thousands. Lol

Sanrith Descartes · Jan 24, 2022

Blazin said:
Was already up $27/share by EOD on the trade you don't like making money? Some of that old Sanrith coming back, you're going to start grumbling about schiller PE next.

You didn't see (I bought for my long term divy portfolio) attached to that trade.

I am just not a fan of NFLX. I think their first to market advantage has waned, they overspend on original content and the lack of a broad library of titles they own to be long term detriment. I could and very well may be wrong though.

I spent the first few weeks of Jan really analyzing and honing in on stocks I want to own long term. I feel I had strayed a bit from my original parameters of trying to own strong balance sheet, moat companies.

But hey, you have a solid batting average so you will most likely prove me wring with this one.

Sanrith Descartes · Jan 24, 2022

LachiusTZ said:
Not mostly.

I simply took a lot of money off the table so I wouldn't lose it learning over the next year.

But yeah, gamma, Delta, whatever the fuck it is that erodes value over time usually fucks me with options.

I'm ok losing thousands learning, but not tens of thousands. Lol

Theta.

Sanrith Descartes · Jan 24, 2022

Official MCD account trolling the Crypto Boyz. El-oh-fucking-el

Gravel · Jan 24, 2022

Sanrith Descartes said:
No, this isn't paper or play money. I don't believe in play money. I earned the shit and I treat each dollar like I sweated for it (which I did). I manage my own portfolios, my mom's and my daughter's Minor account. When I say I am all in, it means as I showed I have less than 1k in my cash accounts. I even posted how I moved extra cash from the bank into my brokerage account this morning to try to grab some more FTEC but it didn't fall enough.

Jesus, so you're trading your entire net worth?

Not just that, but your family's too?

Captain Suave · Jan 24, 2022

Borzak said:
a fair number of people seem to be speculators and not investors. Flavor of the day they heard from somewhere else and on top of that the thought of put money in and leave it long term is almost a new thought.

Half the people I know don't understand that there's a difference between those terms.

Personally, I'm here for edutainment and am one of those super-boring guys who started putting money in index funds at age 16. Seems to be working out pretty well for my admittedly low risk tolerance and willingness to micromanage, so I'm happy.

Kirun · Jan 24, 2022

Sanrith Descartes said:
I am just not a fan of NFLX. I think their first to market advantage has waned, they overspend on original content and the lack of a broad library of titles they own to be long term detriment. I could and very well may be wrong though.

I spent the first few weeks of Jan really analyzing and honing in on stocks I want to own long term. I feel I had strayed a bit from my original parameters of trying to own strong balance sheet, moat companies.

But hey, you have a solid batting average so you will most likely prove me wring with this one.

I think the one to watch out for is HBO Max. If that gets better traction, WB has a SHITLOAD of property they can strip from Netflix and why wouldn't you at that point? Same for Paramount+, but their platform is dogshit.

I'm betting one of the "big boys" (WB, Paramount, Universal, etc.) eventually consumes Netflix - buys them out and incorporates their library/tech.

Blazin · Jan 24, 2022

Sanrith Descartes said:
I am just not a fan of NFLX. I think their first to market advantage has waned, they overspend on original content and the lack of a broad library of titles they own to be long term detriment. I could and very well may be wrong though.

I spent the first few weeks of Jan really analyzing and honing in on stocks I want to own long term. I feel I had strayed a bit from my original parameters of trying to own strong balance sheet, moat companies.

But hey, you have a solid batting average so you will most likely prove me wring with this one.

It's a trade, it's already a win. I'm not taking a position for or against yours in regards to LT investment. I would say I think it's a reasonable consideration below $400 for a LT hold , but obviously "reasonable consideration" is not a "screaming buy" either, but it is in the range of interesting.

Sanrith Descartes · Jan 24, 2022

Gravel said:
Jesus, so you're trading your entire net worth?

Not just that, but your family's too?

Trading? No. Investing? Yes. I have a BS in Quant Econ and an MBA in Finance. I do have some background. I don't day trade. I have posted my portfolio a number of times in terms of its holdings. My Mom's IRA generates enough dividends to cover her RMD which goes directly into her brokerage account. I beat the S&P in 2020 and finished a few points below it in 2021.

I also keep more cash than I should in my bank accounts mainly because I grew up dirt poor and psychologically I need to see a certain level of cash in the bank. It's a character flaw.

Captain Suave · Jan 24, 2022

Kirun said:
I'm betting one of the "big boys" eventually consumes Netflix, buys them out, and incorporates their library/tech - WB, Paramount, Universal, etc.

Edit. Bad numbers. Fixed:

Netflix's current market cap is 7x the combined market cap of those three.

Locnar · Jan 24, 2022

Things got real dark for awhile there today, but luckily I was working. But strangely, I ended the day flat, as in like down 20 dollars total. Hopefully things keep going....

Because I am scarily all in. NOT with options, memes and all that nonsense. I need FANG, semiconductors, etc. to take offffffffff

Oh, and I still have a far too large position in PLTR. My diamond hands have crystalized into the next level. I'm still a true believer in this one stock. Pray for me.

Sanrith Descartes · Jan 24, 2022

Blazin said:
It's a trade, it's already a win. I'm not taking a position for or against yours in regards to LT investment. I would say I think it's a reasonable consideration below $400 for a LT hold , but obviously "reasonable consideration" is not a "screaming buy" either, but it is in the range of interesting.

Gotcha. Yeah a flip trade in days like these is always a good strategy. I'm still adjusting to being out of dry powder. It is the suck.

Kirun · Jan 24, 2022

Captain Suave said:
Netflix's current market cap is 15x the combined market cap of those three.

Yeah, it isn't happening tomorrow. Give it another 10 years?

The movie industry taking such a beating due to China Virus really makes shit fucky though.

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