Investing General Discussion

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Blazin

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I think the one to watch out for is HBO Max. If that gets better traction, WB has a SHITLOAD of property they can strip from Netflix and why wouldn't you at that point? Same for Paramount+, but their platform is dogshit.

I'm betting one of the "big boys" (WB, Paramount, Universal, etc.) eventually consumes Netflix - buys them out and incorporates their library/tech.
big boys? Netflix is way too large for other media firms to buy even the largest of them in Dis, it would be too much. Only people who would/could buy Netflix is Apple or Amazon and neither have any history of making purchases anywhere close to that size.
 
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Borzak

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Half the people I know don't understand that there's a difference between those terms.

Personally, I'm here for edutainment and am one of those super-boring guys who started putting money in index funds at age 16. Seems to be working out pretty well for my admittedly low risk tolerance and willingness to micromanage, so I'm happy.

I'm relatively low risk in my long term retirement. I would be less risk adverse in that stuff if I spent a lot of time researching the stuff I needed to feel comfortable. Instead I just leave it there and then do X amount of investing in private companies that I have a LOT more input in. Long term stuff I do mostly indexes and spread the risk around to a certain degree. A fair number of those companies are companies that I have no clue how they operate and how they make their money. On my short term swing trade stuff is mostly centered around companies I understand how they make their money and their plans going forward. I'm a control freak in some ways, some I just let it go in some ways.

Talking about netflix, not on an investment level. Lot more streaming services now that are fragmenting it. Same way sort of happened to Hulu. Lot of stuff you could get on hulu several years ago just left to be on another or their own stream service.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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big boys? Netflix is way too large for other media firms to buy even the largest of them in Dis, it would be too much. Only people who would/could buy Netflix is Apple or Amazon and neither have any history of making purchases anywhere close to that size.
I stand slightly corrected on NFLX. After the ass beating it has taken since earnings it's PE is down to 34. It is actually a lot lower than I thought it was.
 

Blazin

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I stand slightly corrected on NFLX. After the ass beating it has taken since earnings it's PE is down to 34. It is actually a lot lower than I thought it was.
PE metrics are just meh. Their goal is to expand, they added like what another 18mil subs in the last year? I think it's reasonable that people have cash flow concerns that they can't stop pumping money into content or things will fall apart. I think Hastings knows he needs to stay focused on growth, Disney still outspends them in total content spending. They need to get bigger. How they manage cash in 2025 and beyond is a big unknown and it's answer is going to be very important to a long term investment. If they are sitting on $60B in revenue in the not too far of future the company be worth a lot more. They need a push into gaming, maybe not gaming as this forum would define it.

We only care about earnings as owners if we get the money via buybacks or divys, otherwise its rather meaningless. If a company thinks the best use of cash to grow bigger to judge them by how much money they are wasting on earnings and the taxes that go with it seems counter productive.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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PE metrics are just meh. Their goal is to expand, they added like what another 18mil subs in the last year? I think it's reasonable that people have cash flow concerns that they can't stop pumping money into content or things will fall apart. I think Hastings knows he needs to stay focused on growth, Disney still outspends them in total content spending. They need to get bigger. How they manage cash in 2025 and beyond is a big unknown and it's answer is going to be very important to a long term investment. If they are sitting on $60B in revenue in the not too far of future the company be worth a lot more. They need a push into gaming, maybe not gaming as this forum would define it.

We only care about earnings as owners if we get the money via buybacks or divys, otherwise its rather meaningless. If a company thinks the best use of cash to grow bigger to judge them by how much money they are wasting on earnings and the taxes that go with it seems counter productive.
Part of my issue is them dropping $50mil on the Obamas for "original content". A drop in the bucket perhaps, but that money could have went to James Gunn or some other content creator.

Meh, I flipped it once for profit but decided it wasn't a long term hold for me. I needed to make room for SPIR 😀
 

Blazin

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Part of my issue is them dropping $50mil on the Obamas for "original content". A drop in the bucket perhaps, but that money could have went to James Gunn or some other content creator.

Meh, I flipped it once for profit but decided it wasn't a long term hold for me. I needed to make room for SPIR 😀
While taking a look at Media companies take a look at VIAC and wrap your head around how the market prices disney and netflix vs. CBS
 

Mist

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While taking a look at Media companies take a look at VIAC and wrap your head around how the market prices disney and netflix vs. CBS
Disney has pretty much all of the most valuable IPs in entertainment, plus theme parks, resorts, merchandizing, etc. It's way more than just a media company.
 
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Blazin

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Disney has pretty much all of the most valuable IPs in entertainment, plus theme parks, resorts, merchandizing, etc. It's way more than just a media company.
Thanks Dan I wasn't sure what Disney did.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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While taking a look at Media companies take a look at VIAC and wrap your head around how the market prices disney and netflix vs. CBS
I almost pulled the trigger on VIAC a while back. DIS is different than the other two due to its normally massive money made on these parks, hotels and merchandising. But yeah, market pricing is fucky with a lot of companies.
 

Fogel

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In my scenario with the VIX so high, its the IV crush that sucks the premium out of options. The stock can literally be moving in the direction you want it to and your premium will still get eaten up faster than the stock moves.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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In my scenario with the VIX so high, its the IV crush that sucks the premium out of options. The stock can literally be moving in the direction you want it to and your premium will still get eaten up faster than the stock moves.
A couple of years ago I tried playing the VIX. got my lunch handed to me already eaten. Lesson learned.
 

Kiroy

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Umm well maybe it's not such a bad thing.

well just catching up and reading blazin explain mutual - in my vanguard simple ira I only have access to mutuals so /shrug learned something new - would have still done it the same still.

guess it's not "slow", it just is what it is
 

Sanrith Descartes

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well just catching up and reading blazin explain mutual - in my vanguard simple ira I only have access to mutuals so /shrug

guess it's not slow, it just is what it is
Your IRA only has access to.mutual funds? Do they not have a self directed IRA you can convert to?
 

Kiroy

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Your IRA only has access to.mutual funds? Do they not have a self directed IRA you can convert to?

It's vanguards simple ira that we use for us and our employees (small business) and i'm pretty sure it only let me buy vanguard mutuals. I have mine and my wifes personal IRAs that I can still add to for 2022, so I guess I could have done that.
 

Mist

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I just put in some very large orders for FSKAX so I really hope we have a down day tomorrow.