TJT
Mr. Poopybutthole
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I keep looking into this but everything I read is that AMZN basically has zero reason or incentive to do so. Maybe that will change with Bezos out the door though.
Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
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Guest, it's time once again for the massively important and exciting FoH Asshat Tournament!
Go here and give us your nominations!Who's been the biggest Asshat in the last year? Give us your worst ones!
Falstaff
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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Sanrith Descartes
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Yeah turns out oil was a good spot to park a little while back. Good job.
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Sanrith Descartes
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I havent been keeping up. Why is F trading under $18 and getting crushed the last few weeks? That RIVN investment doing a 180 not good for the F share price?
Fogel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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Sludig
Potato del Grande
- 9,948
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Think they'd do well at least in future. Bronco and maverick orders closed for 2022 already.
Errors coworkers want to do the below. Feel like you could cheese it with a penny stick that goes up 300% somehow? Or just do a couple shares of SPY or something and watch that beast everyone's individual choices?
Errors coworkers want to do the below. Feel like you could cheese it with a penny stick that goes up 300% somehow? Or just do a couple shares of SPY or something and watch that beast everyone's individual choices?
Kirun
Buzzfeed Editor
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Sanrith Descartes
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swayze22
Elite
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Good read:
www.zerohedge.com
In summary, while the markets had been trading for months on fake data when the BLS failed to catch up to covid reality, and was applying stale seasonal adjustments, they are doing so again today, only in the opposite direction with the BLS now overextending itself in the opposite direction, with a January seasonal adjustment that has never been greater!
So for those who feel like discounting the Seasonally Adjusted data, please do: the bizarre Seasonal Adjustment that created distortion and distorted the underlying trend for much of 2021 is back, only now it's in the other direction.
What is the take home message? It's two fold:
Zerohedge
ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero
www.zerohedge.com
In summary, while the markets had been trading for months on fake data when the BLS failed to catch up to covid reality, and was applying stale seasonal adjustments, they are doing so again today, only in the opposite direction with the BLS now overextending itself in the opposite direction, with a January seasonal adjustment that has never been greater!
So for those who feel like discounting the Seasonally Adjusted data, please do: the bizarre Seasonal Adjustment that created distortion and distorted the underlying trend for much of 2021 is back, only now it's in the other direction.
What is the take home message? It's two fold:
- First, we can effectively ignore covid's effect going forward. As Southbay notes, "It would appear that COVID is no longer a brake on employment or on the economy" which is good news: the end of the artificial covid restrictions couldn't come too soon.
- Second, while the January report was stellar, its all downhill from here, because "January's win is a loss for February payrolls" or put otherwise, this month's strong payrolls will come at a price: i) Seasonal Adjustment will unwind - reducing payrolls in future months and ii) Seasonal workers will be laid off, resulting in a roughly 100K downside to February and/or subsequent months.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Sanrith Descartes
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SPIR 10-day chart. Stock "appears" to have found a bottom about a week before earnings. The 10-day trend is looking healthy and the stock is up about 35% over the last ten days but doing it in a controlled non-parabolic rise.
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Moglyzoke Moogleman
This Site Sucks Hairy Asshole
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I'm debating with myself with the idea of adding a few shares of PYPL down here at 125. I'm thinking of adding enough to get my cost/share down to 157, while not quite doubling my overall $ position (which is not big).
Good idea, bad idea? I mean medium term, PYPL isn't really falling much further, right?
Good idea, bad idea? I mean medium term, PYPL isn't really falling much further, right?
Mist
REEEEeyore
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BLS has underreported jobs massively the past 3 months vs ADP.
Now they overreport massively vs ADP.
This is just different metrics evening out.
And investors seem shocked at the performance of AWS. They don't seem to understand cloud. The cloud hype phase is over, which to investors who know nothing of the actual industry, they think that means cloud is basically old news now. What it ACTUALLY means is now that the hype phase is over, cloud is mature, and you see companies putting actual internal infrastructure into the cloud, rather than just their latest and greatest apps. Cloud still has the potential to grow as a market by 20-100x. Now that the hype is over, it's just getting started. Companies of all sizes want all that legacy stuff, the stuff that actually runs their business operations day-to-day, that all currently sits on on-premises servers off their premises, because they want the flexibility to sell or repurpose those premises.
Now they overreport massively vs ADP.
This is just different metrics evening out.
And investors seem shocked at the performance of AWS. They don't seem to understand cloud. The cloud hype phase is over, which to investors who know nothing of the actual industry, they think that means cloud is basically old news now. What it ACTUALLY means is now that the hype phase is over, cloud is mature, and you see companies putting actual internal infrastructure into the cloud, rather than just their latest and greatest apps. Cloud still has the potential to grow as a market by 20-100x. Now that the hype is over, it's just getting started. Companies of all sizes want all that legacy stuff, the stuff that actually runs their business operations day-to-day, that all currently sits on on-premises servers off their premises, because they want the flexibility to sell or repurpose those premises.
swayze22
Elite
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What evens out? It doesn't even out.
It's changing the seasonality adjustment drastically from the past 8+ periods for whatever reason, the most unlikely of which is to provide a more realistic representation of the market. It's simply changing the "rules of the game" for the data. Analysts might not be able to price Facebook without having all the information but economists can look at the methodology and historical data and use that to project data moving forward. But not when that methodology changes which is what happened here as you see the most optimistic estimate be half of what the "official" number was. This is further obfuscated by the fact the official numbers keep having significant revisions to previous quarters after the fact.
If I was doing this in class my professor would tell me to stop being a dipshit.
This is likely similar to what's going to play out with the fed although completely and wholly unrelated. Too slow to react & adapt and then eventually will overreact when they do make a change.
but yes as
Sanrith Descartes
says - the government lies.- 1
Sanrith Descartes
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I would be quite jelly of your cost basis at $157. I am right around $200.
Lot of data to unpack. 49 analysts have an average 12-month price target of $195. Here is a good breakdown of their various estimates. "IF" the average price target is correct (big if), then at $159 you would be looking at a 12-month return of 22.64% at that cost basis.
PYPL | PayPal Holdings Inc. Analyst Estimates | MarketWatch
PayPal Holdings Inc. analyst estimates, including PYPL earnings per share estimates and analyst recommendations.
www.marketwatch.com
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Sanrith Descartes
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Good breakdown of the 6 real players in the Space Data as a Service group.
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