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Blazin

Blazin

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Gravel said:
So my question is, are they just going to eat that? Or are they expecting these people to pay several missed months? Because that seems unlikely.
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They are in the process of figuring that out, they are doing some amount of forgiveness. He told me they will wait, make sure they are doing everything they need to evict people soon as it's legally and politically feasible. It's the same story, they have the cash to survive like this for a little bit but it can't go on for an extended period. It is already at a higher rate of delinquency than during any previous economic downturn. Prior, the demand was huge and they were at full occupancy, if the replacement demand is not there they have to be little more picky about how hard they push people out if they believe that tenant can recover back to regularly paying.
 
Sanrith Descartes

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Sanrith Descartes said:
I bought puts on the SPY with an 8 day expiry. I almost hope I lose money on these, but I don't think I will sadly.
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Greed. On the drop at around 2pm or so I was up about 25%. By the time I am filling out the sell order its up 30%. I look at the clock and pause. Ill easily hit 50% on the 330pm sell. Its basically Friday for the market. I delete the order. Market goes up and stays up. In the red 10% at the close.

Moral of the story. Pigs get fat. Hogs get slaughtered.

If we open down on Monday I should make some cash on it. But damn, even though I know not to let emotion get in the way, I did it anyway. This is why you stick to limit orders. I feel like such a noob.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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Blazin said:
They are in the process of figuring that out, they are doing some amount of forgiveness. He told me they will wait, make sure they are doing everything they need to evict people soon as it's legally and politically feasible. It's the same story, they have the cash to survive like this for a little bit but it can't go on for an extended period. It is already at a higher rate of delinquency than during any previous economic downturn. Prior, the demand was huge and they were at full occupancy, if the replacement demand is not there they have to be little more picky about how hard they push people out if they believe that tenant can recover back to regularly paying.
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It doesn't help to have members of Congress and governors basically calling for people to live rent free for 3 months.
 
Big Phoenix

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Greed. On the drop at around 2pm or so I was up about 25%. By the time I am filling out the sell order its up 30%. I look at the clock and pause. Ill easily hit 50% on the 330pm sell. Its basically Friday for the market. I delete the order. Market goes up and stays up. In the red 10% at the close.

Moral of the story. Pigs get fat. Hogs get slaughtered.

If we open down on Monday I should make some cash on it. But damn, even though I know not to let emotion get in the way, I did it anyway. This is why you stick to limit orders. I feel like such a noob.
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It's ok,I lost a few hundred dollars today too because I'm an idiot as well.
 
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Hateyou

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I’m just trading with thousands and making thousand/hundreds here and there and it can be frustrating. I can’t imagine doing it at the levels you guys are, or the people that do it with millions. I can see why people on Wall Street eat a bullet once in a while.
 
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Furry

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Not surprising, crude prices right back down. Those cuts they announced were just not nearly enough. It'd take almost twice the cut to start unraveling this mess, and even then it'd be a couple months.
 
Nester

Nester

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Furry said:
Not surprising, crude prices right back down. Those cuts they announced were just not nearly enough. It'd take almost twice the cut to start unraveling this mess, and even then it'd be a couple months.
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can they even cut enough with no jets in the air or cars on the road? They are running out of tankers to fill and anchor.
 
Furry

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Nester said:
can they even cut enough with no jets in the air or cars on the road? They are running out of tankers to fill and anchor.
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I read that demand was down ~35% somewhere, so I think a 35% cut would have been the minimum they should have aimed for, probably 40% with the current overstorage.

35% drop in demand is pretty massive.
 
Sanrith Descartes

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Hateyou said:
I’m just trading with thousands and making thousand/hundreds here and there and it can be frustrating. I can’t imagine doing it at the levels you guys are, or the people that do it with millions. I can see why people on Wall Street eat a bullet once in a while.
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I dont trade massive amounts. Its one reason I deal strictly in percentages. Dollars can bias my decisions. If I make 25% in 3 days I'm ecstatic. If I make $125 in 3 days I am less ecstatic. Its psychological for me. My long term investments are where the bulk of my balances are. QQQ, IVV, MSFT, JPM, LMT etc. I actively try to keep my "trades" in the less than $1000 range unless I feel really strongly about it (or am feeling stupid). My Jan '21 BA calls are well over $1000 due only to the cost of the underlying option at the time of purchase and the multiplier of 100 shares in a contract. If BA gets it shit together this summer I will win big. If they ass up, I'm out about 2k.

My strategy is simple for my trades. If I can hit 25% or more in a shirt window I am happy to take it off the table. And look for another trade. 150 here, 300 there and it all adds up as cash profits in the cash account. Also the more options plays I make the better (hopefully) I get through experience. Another reason I keep my trades small. I'm building my experience and learning from each one.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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Furry said:
Not surprising, crude prices right back down. Those cuts they announced were just not nearly enough. It'd take almost twice the cut to start unraveling this mess, and even then it'd be a couple months.
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The maket had bought up the rumor and then sold the news. Almost in every case, the actual event underwhelms the anticipation of the upside.
 
Sanrith Descartes

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Furry said:
I read that demand was down ~35% somewhere, so I think a 35% cut would have been the minimum they should have aimed for, probably 40% with the current overstorage.

35% drop in demand is pretty massive.
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For anyone interested in learning or following the energy sector and oil in particular follow @Chigrl on Twitter. She is a chick in Canada who trades exclusively the oil sector. Her feed is a treasure trove of info on Energy.
 
Sanrith Descartes

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Things to think about. Want to know what is driving this rally? Look at the 200 DMAs.
AMZN 10% above its 200 DMA
MSFT 10% above its 200 DMA
AAPL 6% above its 200 DMA
NFLX 15% above its 200 DMA
NVDA 25% above its 200 DMA
WMT 5% above its 200 DMA

Those names sound familiar?
 
Araysar

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Why arent delivery services blowing up? UPS, Fedex, etc?
 
Furry

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Captain Suave said:
I imagine a large portion of their business is B2B, and thus presently nonexistent.
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There's still lots of stuff moving around. I'm sure they are negatively effected, but worst case scenario they furlough people and keep working. Delivery services are used to large swings in demand already, with holiday seasons and what not.
 
Fogel

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We stopped sending stuff fedex because we send out a lot of frozen food samples with dry ice over night, and fedex was taking 2+ days for priority over night
 
C

Captain Suave

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Furry said:
There's still lots of stuff moving around. I'm sure they are negatively effected, but worst case scenario they furlough people and keep working. Delivery services are used to large swings in demand already, with holiday seasons and what not.
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Right, I just meant they're not blowing up because it seems plausible that whatever increase in residential shipping they're seeing is offset by the loss of business shipping. As you say, they're used to short-term scaling.
 
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