Investing General Discussion

Sanrith Descartes said:

The market is anything but boring. Cant say I saw this coming. This can't be true.

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Taking that step tells me that banks are expecting to take ownership of some of some of those assets through margin calls/defaults. It mostly tells me that the general reluctance to make margin calls we've seen in some sectors is probably coming to an end.

Furry said:

Taking that step tells me that banks are expecting to take ownership of some of some of those assets through margin calls/defaults. It mostly tells me that the general reluctance to make margin calls we've seen in some sectors is probably coming to an end.

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Its not margin calls. Its shale debt the banks hold on their books from these companies. They don't want to admit the losses when the companies go belly-up so they are taking them over instead. Because banks know about fracking. Oh and because fracking is so profitable at 25$ a barrel. This will end badly for the banks.

Locnar said:

I have a friend who is hyperventilating over commodity ETFs (corn/hogs, etc), saying they are super low and with the printing presses rolling out money and pent up demand going to be unleashed once everyone starts eating out again they will go through the roof.

Is this pie in the sky or is he onto something?

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My limited advice. Commodities are a little odd. Its not like equities. I dont trade them because its a space I dont understand that well. Do some reading before parting with hard earned dollars.

For example, copper is actually rising a bit with the economy stopped. Turns out about 1-2 kg of copper are used to make ventilators. This is the type of thing that makes trading commodities something for people who understand the space. I wouldn't have considered the copper/ventilator correlation.

Sanrith Descartes said:

My limited advice. Commodities are a little odd. Its not like equities. I dont trade them because its a space I dont understand that well. Do some reading before parting with hard earned dollars.

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Pretty much the same boat for me. Will they go up? Probably. Do I see a major inflationary event? Not likely.

Pops said:

We should have inflation now after brrrrrmageddon. Everything has been in a disinflationary spiral. Zero interest rates and zombie corps leads to overproduction. Full employment though.

Is it going to be food? I don't know. Are we overproducing? Like oil? Hard assets should benefit. Gold, collectibles. Real estate, stocks.

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Buy MSFT. Your portfolio will thank you in 10 years.

Not enough. I believe the market had already priced in a bigger cut. Unless Mexico gets on board by 9:30am tomorrow I expect this to not make Mr. Market happy in the morning. It is at least a starting point for the Cartel.

A really great thread on investing.

Yeah crude gapped up and immediately filled. The market had priced in more than 10m barrels a day cut last week. Trump needs to pick up Twitter tonight and tweet/lie his ass off.

Apparently this 10% oil cut is supposedly actually 20%. Still not enough and too slow.

Buying a pile of calls on GME makes as much sense as anything now. Who needs employees, stores, revenue or a plan.

I think there are two parts to the market right now. Fundamentals we basically have nothing to look at. You can't value a company on earnings when it doesn't have any or we can't predict when it will have some. At best we have balance sheets but that only tells us if the company can survive for a certain period of time based on cash burn rate. There are i believe some exceptions that are going to show less impact than anyone else (MSFT for example) and its why I am pumping MSFT. It should come out less shitty than most of the pack.

The other is feels. 3/4 of a trillion sitting in money markets right now. People want to buy stocks. Its just how they are wired. FOMO is powerful. People are buying (myself included) with our economy closed. Its not rational. So its like playing poker. Sometimes you have to play the guy not the hand. Im playing the fact that people want to buy and what I am buying are companies that have the highest percentage chance of coming out on the other side of this in the best shape possible. And the fact the Fed has decided that it is going to moral hazard the shit out of this and cover a whole lot of bad decisions.

Now I just need a nice deep red opening so I can sell my SPY puts and make a little cash today

Punched out of my SPY puts. Time was against me (I was trading on time value since it was so out of the money). Made 7%. Shitty compared to the 30% I left on the table on Friday due to greed, but happy to have been given an opportunity to be in the plus column.

AMZN $52 from a new 52-week high.