Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
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Guest, it's time once again for the massively important and exciting FoH Asshat Tournament!
Go here and give us your nominations!Who's been the biggest Asshat in the last year? Give us your worst ones!
Sanrith Descartes
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2s and 10s looking about to invert. Watch all the algos go wild when it does.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Sanrith Descartes
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Better to go ask in the crypto thread about stablecoins. I posted it here mainly for the MBS lulz, because what could possibly go wrong with backing shit with mortgages? I mean, people always pay their mortgages, amirite?
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Uh huh, uh huh.
I remember last time 2s and 10s inverted, it was wild! 2s and 10s inverting is totally something that I know what... is. Yup, very familiar with it.
Tmac
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Sanrith Descartes
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Reader's digest version:
Time value of money tells us that longer dated debt should pay more interest. So 2-yr treasuries should pay less interest than 10-yr treasuries. The 2s are about two basis points from inverting with the 10s. Which means the 2yr would be yielding more than the 10s.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Lol, with the THOT SPAC post before it, I thought you were talking about hoes or something. I'm thinking, wait how could 2's ever replace a 10?? Is he doing an old Carlin-esque I never had a 10, but one time I had 5 2's joke?? Do THOT's that are 2's even register as THOT's??
I must need more coffee.
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Sanrith Descartes
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To add some clarity to the 2/10. If you bought a new 10-yr treasury today you would tie up your money for 10 years and get the same return you would get buying a 2-yr treasury and tying up your money for 2 years.
edit: for historical reference ONLY! since the market is a forward looking monster. Since the 1970's the 2/10 has inverted six times and all six had preceded a recession. But of course, that is just history and doesn't mean it will happen again.
edit: for historical reference ONLY! since the market is a forward looking monster. Since the 1970's the 2/10 has inverted six times and all six had preceded a recession. But of course, that is just history and doesn't mean it will happen again.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Big Phoenix
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Sanrith Descartes
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Sanrith Descartes
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Tmac
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So, the 2/10 inversion has meant recessions 6 out of 6 times, but that doesn't mean it will happen again?
Things that make you go HRMMMMMMM...
Big Phoenix
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Gravel
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I'd argue we've been in recession for the last 2-4 quarters, but the printing presses are obfuscating it.
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Sanrith Descartes
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