Sanrith Descartes
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Investing General Discussion
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Guest, it's time once again for the massively important and exciting FoH Asshat Tournament!
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Sanrith Descartes
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Big Phoenix
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Sanrith Descartes
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I always find it funny how this thread dies out once the markets really turn south.
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karma
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the chatter is reduced, but my guess is the number of times it gets checked goes up significantly as those of us riding the coat tails of real traders anxiously reload the page waiting for you, blazin or one of the others to post your new positions
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Jysin
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We are basically at lows of yesterday. Nothing really to report that is any different for buys.
The fact we completely reversed yesterday's bounce attempt in a single day is pretty damn bearish though. I feel we either double bottom bounce today, or we are headed straight to Feb 24 lows of 410, or perhaps 400. Beyond that we are getting close to flirting with SPY bear territory (384).
I am roughly ~50% invested, ready for any contingency.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Jysin
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And re my thought process.. the slow bleeds across the indexes are hard to buy into. It is far easier buying into quick volatile emotional selling into very specific support levels. The VIX is starting to get moving. I'd ideally like a big volume panic sell event to really dig in. You want the panic where emotional traders are throwing out the baby with the bathwater (dumping good quality stuff indiscriminately).
This environment, patience pays. Less is more.
This environment, patience pays. Less is more.
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Sanrith Descartes
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You also need to look backwards as well as forwards. This is doubly so for indexes. I added to FTEC at $108 because it was a good number back in May of 2021 and its a good number now. In essence people buying indexes are buying them at almost a year ago prices. I feel somewhat differently about individual names, but for the main indexes dollar cost averaging for a long time horizon is the way to go during these periods. When it hits a technical level add a tranche.
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Sanrith Descartes
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PS.. if we get a miss on AAPL, MSFT or GOOG this week the real selling will begin.
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Jysin
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By far, the biggest macro threat currently isnt the big bad Fed meeting next week, it is the risk of companies writing off Q1 Russia / Ukraine exposure and guiding lower for the year. Some companies will have little, if any exposure. Some have already said from 3-9% revenues depending on the name. This earnings season is going to be the make or break on how far we dive. And as
Sanrith Descartes
said, if we get misses on the big boys, there's nothing left to prop up the indexes.
Sanrith Descartes
said, if we get misses on the big boys, there's nothing left to prop up the indexes.- 1
Furry
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I’m feeling like I should buy ruble bonds.By far, the biggest macro threat currently isnt the big bad Fed meeting next week, it is the risk of companies writing off Q1 Russia / Ukraine exposure and guiding lower for the year. Some companies will have little, if any exposure. Some have already said from 3-9% revenues depending on the name. This earnings season is going to be the make or break on how far we dive. And as
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Zog
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By far, the biggest macro threat currently isnt the big bad Fed meeting next week, it is the risk of companies writing off Q1 Russia / Ukraine exposure and guiding lower for the year. Some companies will have little, if any exposure. Some have already said from 3-9% revenues depending on the name. This earnings season is going to be the make or break on how far we dive. And as
The Russian pullout is definitely on the minds of many, coke still did well but who knows for the other big boys.
I'm using Fridays price action to pass on trying to find a bottom here, every pop was followed by lower lows on Friday.
Earnings will dictate direction as always, trading a position before seeing any of these earnings is straight gambling.
Netflix is a good reminder that things are changing in the markets, i would rather just see how things go and miss out on the very bottom.
Sanrith Descartes
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I'm only doing index buys in small amounts at this level. I've got a good bit of powder if things spike down, and if things go up from here back to 3 weeks ago level I'm good with that too. IMO buying dow index is the less risky play than either the S&P and especially the NASDAQ, but it's also got less upside potential for when/if things head back up. Speaking in the near term.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Sanrith Descartes
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Here is the big three laid side by side. The problem with the DIA is that stocks like DIS have been killing it. If AAPL or MSFT miss, it will be annihilated.
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Not that I disagree, but won't those also annihilate the other 2 indexes to an equal or even greater degree? It may be my imagination, it just seems the dow has been far less volatile since Jan 1st, and hasn't dropped as far either. It just seems more of risk-off play than the other 2, I could be wrong of course.
Sanrith Descartes
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The DJIA isnt cap weighted like most other indexes. It is price weighted using some secret formula. Also since it only has 30 components. Now since AAPL split it wont be as bad but if both miss I expect the impact on the DJIA to be brutal. And you could be correct that the selling will just be across all sectors and indexes so I guess it would be a matter of degrees.
Also you are correct that the DJIA has outperformed since Jan. This is partially due to UNH (the most influential) having been on a tear the last 4 months.
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