Jysin
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Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
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Guest, it's time once again for the massively important and exciting FoH Asshat Tournament!
Go here and give us your nominations!Who's been the biggest Asshat in the last year? Give us your worst ones!
Sanrith Descartes
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Its not about patience and I preach patience constantly. Its about not "guessing" which is exactly what you are suggesting. When you use the term "could add 5%" it can just as easily be substituted for "Could lose 5%". This is called guessing. Over a 30 year time horizon, buying today or tomorrow doesnt matter.On this page alone we have a couple people asking what index to buy and not one discussion of the timing?
Waiting a week or so could add 5% to your portfolio but we don't like to talk about that kind of patience
I'm sure someone will deliver a stern lecture about not "trying to time the market". I'm just saying, just because a person gets an opportunity to buy stocks today, doesnt mean today is the right day to buy that stock. Its a kind of impatience that we all fall victim to, but I don't often see it discussed.
Why dont you post your portfolio and performance numbers like many of us have and lets see how your guessing strategy has paid off over the last couple of years.
Sanrith Descartes
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Sanrith Descartes
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A tale of two IPOs (or direct listings). PLTR and ASAN came public the same day. They took two different roads to end up at the exact same place today. Shit like this is why I love the market.
Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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Yep, time in the market beats timing the market.
Put it in today and move on. If you're really paranoid about it, dollar cost average it over the next several months.
But trying to time the market is a fools errand. Look for market timing simulators, which use actual market performance, and I bet you still fail to properly time it, despite knowing what the market did.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Sanrith Descartes
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I am keeping an eye on UNP for a re-entry. Will probably grab a half position at the long term support of $222 and see how it reacts there.
Sanrith Descartes
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Sanrith Descartes
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4.89% earnings growth on 14% revenue growth. This is why the markets are where they are. Fundamentals.
Aldarion
Egg Nazi
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Thats quite a play to throw at someone who you know very well has literally just started investing.
I'm not trying to take down the consensus position on "buy quality and hold it forever". I'm saying maybe its worth considering the meeting thats about to announce the largest rate hike in a very long time is tomorrow.
It is absolutely a question of patience, and thats the only thing I'm really arguing with. Always buying something the second you have settled cash is FOMO, not rational. People should play the game however they want, but not every day is the same. Maybe its worth considering things like the rate hike.
If its not, why does anyone bother with this thread?
Tmac
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We've had like 100 fed meeting rumors where "they are gonna rate hike" and 100 meetings where they didn't. So you're just guessing and his point is that your guessing is gonna net you negative dollars.
You have to look at what the market is doing, not what you think it's going to do. Blazin preaches this enough that I guess I can repeat it now.
What you're suggesting is the opposite of sound advice. It's not a knock, it's just counter to what the good investors/traders tell us here.
Furry
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That doesn't scare me that much. It's natural for companies to try and suck up some of the blow of inflation.
Sanrith Descartes
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It wasn't a "play". It doesnt matter how long you have been investing. I was merely stating that many of us who opine here aren't larping (not accusing you of doing so) and show our trades and holdings to demonstrate it. There are readers here who will make trades with real savings based on what
Blazin
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Jysin
, and others might say. That is a lot of responsibility. I have felt it when someone followed me into a trade or two and it went sideways (hello to you TRIT). I post my trades and holdings because coming in here and giving advice while not actually following said advice oneself is some CNBC level stuff.We have been discussing the FED and rate hikes for months. There is zero way anyone of us can know what Powell and the fed will do this week. 75? 50? 25? who knows. If you can't know a variable then you cant actually factor it in. What if Janet says "recession coming so we are not raising rates this month" and the indexes scream up 7%? That would be a huge loss for someone on the sideline. So yes, I believe we should ignore it because we cant know it. Markets could be up 10% on Friday or down 10% on Friday. We gots no way to know.
That is what I am trying to say.
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Zog
Blackwing Lair Raider
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TQQQ/QQQ:
Pretty significant moment here that can be pretty devastating.
Failing to break out of the channel puts the next bounce up at 31-32ish area... Mother of god indeed.
I should add the bull case here that closing above the channel at least lets us put 43 on the table.
Pretty significant moment here that can be pretty devastating.
Failing to break out of the channel puts the next bounce up at 31-32ish area... Mother of god indeed.
I should add the bull case here that closing above the channel at least lets us put 43 on the table.
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for long term investment timing is mostly fruitless. We are still way off the highs so this should be a ok time to buy in even if it isn’t the bottom which none of us know.
my personal opinion of the fed is that they are retarded but it is so hard to say if that will mean they rate hike us into recession in which case stocks are going down another 20% or let us go into stagflation and stocks are the best of a bunch of bad options.
My personal opinion is they will rate hike us into recession because inflation is good for the poor and bad for the rich and we know who they serve.
my personal opinion of the fed is that they are retarded but it is so hard to say if that will mean they rate hike us into recession in which case stocks are going down another 20% or let us go into stagflation and stocks are the best of a bunch of bad options.
My personal opinion is they will rate hike us into recession because inflation is good for the poor and bad for the rich and we know who they serve.
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Tmac
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Uh, you've got that backwards. Inflation is great for the class with all the assets.
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Zzen
Potato del Grande
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Furry
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lmao, inflation is way worse for the poor than the rich. Physical possessions are immune to inflation. What universe did you beam in from.
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