Trying to find stuff to buy today thinking Xom might hit 140 over the summer before gas prices and interest rates crash the economy. That would be about on par with the highs they saw in 08.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Sanrith Descartes
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Just wait until tomorrow.Power hour gonna be interesting to see today
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Ya I got nothing… probably just going to keep buying company I like who have already dropped a ton from their highs.Energy, huh?
Sanrith Descartes
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Sanrith Descartes
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I got my ass beat in energy a while back so dont take advice from me in that sector. You do you. I was just making fun.
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Zog
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For all the hubris on cnbc, twitter and fed face ripping rallies... being short has still been the right play since January.
At what point do you just give up and accept were crashing. It's like a slowmotion train wreck that you refuse to believe what you're seeing. A soft landing sounds like gently landing at zero.
At what point do you just give up and accept were crashing. It's like a slowmotion train wreck that you refuse to believe what you're seeing. A soft landing sounds like gently landing at zero.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Sanrith Descartes
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Sanrith Descartes
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How many times in history has the market stayed off its highs for a long time. Depression was 25 years. 2000 was 7 years. 2008 was 6 years. 2020 was 6 days (jk)
it feels more like 2000 than anything else with tons of meme stocks and insane optimism for the last 3-5yrs, Covid panic excluded.
Near term to me the most likely outcome is energy and housing continue to depress discretionary consumer spending and retail investment in the markets as savings rate dips and we see another ~3-6 months before we find the bottom. Fed is a huge wildcard obviously but it isn’t an election year and inflation is already slipping out of control so I don’t think they will intervene to save stocks this time.
it feels more like 2000 than anything else with tons of meme stocks and insane optimism for the last 3-5yrs, Covid panic excluded.
Near term to me the most likely outcome is energy and housing continue to depress discretionary consumer spending and retail investment in the markets as savings rate dips and we see another ~3-6 months before we find the bottom. Fed is a huge wildcard obviously but it isn’t an election year and inflation is already slipping out of control so I don’t think they will intervene to save stocks this time.
Blazin
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It's times like this for the people with the patience to get through it "earn" the returns they get. It's easy to look at charts in the rear view mirror and say wow just hold from A to B but getting through indecision of corrective periods is extremely challenging emotionally. This market behavior is why so many people underperform, because they just can't get through it without doing self harm to their portfolio.
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Fogel
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Blazin
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Looking at QQQ
We have been below the 200d avg for almost 6 months now. That's not a great look. Fear is at extreme levels. Because with every 10-20% correction there is always the thought, "Is this a corrective period in a larger uptrend (2018) or is it a full fledged bear (2008)." You will never have a 20% correction that you aren't left wondering if it is going to steepen.
Here is 2018 correction:
We spent five months battling below the 200d and were able to recover it and go much higher.
Now in 2008:
We battled below the 200d for 8 months and just could not recover the trend and went on to much lower levels.
The longer we stay under the 200d the more probable the 2008 scenario becomes. So this begs the question do we have periods of consolidation that were longer that didn't need to flush much lower to reset?
TUNE IN TO FIND OUT...
We have been below the 200d avg for almost 6 months now. That's not a great look. Fear is at extreme levels. Because with every 10-20% correction there is always the thought, "Is this a corrective period in a larger uptrend (2018) or is it a full fledged bear (2008)." You will never have a 20% correction that you aren't left wondering if it is going to steepen.
Here is 2018 correction:
We spent five months battling below the 200d and were able to recover it and go much higher.
Now in 2008:
We battled below the 200d for 8 months and just could not recover the trend and went on to much lower levels.
The longer we stay under the 200d the more probable the 2008 scenario becomes. So this begs the question do we have periods of consolidation that were longer that didn't need to flush much lower to reset?
TUNE IN TO FIND OUT...
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Gravel
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I think people forget 2008 and how it didn't all come crashing down in an afternoon. It was really a 3-5 month event from top to finally fitting bottom.
In this current situation, we've done so much to try to soften the landing that it'll probably get drawn out for way longer.
Edit: And as C Creslin pointed out above, the dotcom bust took almost 2 whole years to reach bottom, and then took a decade to recover to the previous highs.
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