Sanrith Descartes
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Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
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Guest, it's time once again for the massively important and exciting FoH Asshat Tournament!
Go here and give us your nominations!Who's been the biggest Asshat in the last year? Give us your worst ones!
Loser Araysar
Chief Russia Reporter. Stock Pals CEO. Head of AI.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Ravishing
Uninspiring Title
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Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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I mean, I've been saying this for the last week. There is no good economic news. Anyone thinking we'd see something good this month isn't paying attention to anything. There's been no catalyst for change, the economy isn't going to magic itself healthier.
The recession is imminent. We're not pulling out of it anytime soon, either, because nothing is being done to start the change upwards.
Sanrith Descartes
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We are nearing the point again where whoever bought the 2000 nasdaq high is back to just break even when adjusted for inflation.
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Fogel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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He made some prediction of Dow crashing and never going above 20k again in our lifetimes or something along those lines. Shortly before being banned.
Sanrith Descartes
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I'm not a Wall Street guy. I refused to work there. But I gotta ask myself "why the fuck would you be massively selling out of positions now, down 20%+?"
Either they all know something we dont, or they aren't nearly as smart as they think they are. Could be a combo of both.
Either they all know something we dont, or they aren't nearly as smart as they think they are. Could be a combo of both.
Arden
Blackwing Lair Raider
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Presumably with something like a recession or a crash it could go quite a bit lower though, right?
Sanrith Descartes
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My point was if we have figured this out months ago, shouldn't they have and sold out then?
Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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They were probably hopeful, as we all were, that our politicians would do something that could pull us out of the tailspin. Instead, we're getting ideas thrown out that exacerbate the problems (like shitting on domestic oil producers instead of helping them).
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Captain Suave
Caesar si viveret, ad remum dareris.
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While there's little controversy about what "should" be done, I think there's still a large amount of uncertainty, and thus speculation around, about which levers will be pulled how hard and when.
Plus, everyone's time horizons are so fucking short these days I'd be surprised if anyone was really looking forwards more than a quarter, two at the most. (This, of course, is a big part of the fundamental problem.)
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Sanrith Descartes
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Yes. but we are talking about professional traders with a fiduciary duty to their clients. Not normies like us.
You nailed it in your first post, they aren't nearly as smart as they think they are and this has been proven again and again over the last hundred years.
Plus I think confidence in the admin and JP has plummeted over the last 4 months, many of these guys were probably true believers in Biden being a good president at one point, with how right this board leans most of us were never under that opinion and probably assumed he would fuck everything up from the start.
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Captain Suave
Caesar si viveret, ad remum dareris.
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I meant them. I went to school with those guys. They're winging it like everyone else, just with more of other people's money and fancier justifications for their guessing. Just look at the articles they write. At any given time there's +/- 100% variance in the forecasts. While many of them have deep but narrow knowledge and expertise in certain sectors, no one understands the whole economy.
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Arden
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I get what you're asking though: why now, and suddenly? As in- did they get some new significant info that substantially changed their outlook for the worse?
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Sanrith Descartes
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My great awakening came when I sat down with my mom's Merrill rep and asked them why they were charging her 1% to put her in the absolute dogshit positions they had put her in. I looked him dead in the eye and asked him to show me a single justification for putting a 70-year old in emerging market bonds. When he had no answer, I asked him if he put his mom's money in emerging market bonds. Again he refused to answer. I am most assuredly am not better than everyone on Wall Street but I sure as fuck was better than the guy she was paying 1% to. If for no other reason than I actually give a shit about her returns.
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The guy coming to your house isn't really even the investment banker, he is just a salesman with a fancy finance title to lend him credibility. He sells various index funds and talks about diversification and a portfolio with a balanced allocation of stocks and bonds because that is what the book on investing 101 said he then locks you into that and probably doesn't touch it again until his next visit.
That is part of the reason the markets act the way they do, because Grandma is locked into some index fund that was setup to buy certain types of companies and isn't nimble because it can't be, it's prospectus said it would invest in pet hair removal stocks, the fund manager can't suddenly pivot and decide to start shorting tech just because he thinks its a good idea.
The analysts posting articles and posting price targets to the public are also not analysts, they are sales men, thats why every article reads like some crypto tard BTC to $1M fantasy and why you can still go on to websites and see price targets for YE tech stocks that are all like 20% above the 2021 ATHs.
This is literally Amazon's Analysis on MSN Money right now:
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