Moglyzoke Moogleman
This Site Sucks Hairy Asshole
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Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
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Guest, it's time once again for the massively important and exciting FoH Asshat Tournament!
Go here and give us your nominations!Who's been the biggest Asshat in the last year? Give us your worst ones!
Jysin
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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Asking how to short a stock right when we have ripped >20% off the peak is the equivalent of buying high / selling low. You're trying to sell the low.
Sure we can have more downside, but this thesis of being negative on the market should have started months ago.
Same shit in the bull market / crypto market. They go on a tear and post huge gains, then the noobies get FOMO and start buying tops expecting the same results.
Buy low (now) and sell high (6 months ago when the wheels started falling off the bus). Or in the case of shorting, Sell (short) highs.
It becomes a simple case of downside risk vs upside potential. TLDR: You're doing this all backwards.
PS> I distinctly remember a post I made back in Q4 where I disclosed my cash position in which
Sanrith Descartes
replied with a bit of shock. Go look at Q4 charts (particularly the massive Sept/Oct wobble and the December chop). I started lightening positions then. I also openly critcized another member here who went balls to the wall "all-in" in the travel sector when that started seeing headwinds. (That was roughly 50% price decline ago and he has since disappeared btw). As soon as the Russia shit kicked off and the Fed started changing their tune is when you should have started reconsidering your market thesis.
My strategy is as an active trader who is literally staring at this stuff every day. For most people, you should just be looking to DCA into the huge swings low for the long term accounts. If you want to try and time some quick profits, use the 20 daily EMA and look for extremes. It basically acts as a rubber band. The further extended we get in either direction, the more violent moves back to the mean we get. This doesn't change an overall trend, but will definitely point out when we get extended to one direction or another in the short term.
Sure we can have more downside, but this thesis of being negative on the market should have started months ago.
Same shit in the bull market / crypto market. They go on a tear and post huge gains, then the noobies get FOMO and start buying tops expecting the same results.
Buy low (now) and sell high (6 months ago when the wheels started falling off the bus). Or in the case of shorting, Sell (short) highs.
It becomes a simple case of downside risk vs upside potential. TLDR: You're doing this all backwards.
PS> I distinctly remember a post I made back in Q4 where I disclosed my cash position in which
Sanrith Descartes
replied with a bit of shock. Go look at Q4 charts (particularly the massive Sept/Oct wobble and the December chop). I started lightening positions then. I also openly critcized another member here who went balls to the wall "all-in" in the travel sector when that started seeing headwinds. (That was roughly 50% price decline ago and he has since disappeared btw). As soon as the Russia shit kicked off and the Fed started changing their tune is when you should have started reconsidering your market thesis.My strategy is as an active trader who is literally staring at this stuff every day. For most people, you should just be looking to DCA into the huge swings low for the long term accounts. If you want to try and time some quick profits, use the 20 daily EMA and look for extremes. It basically acts as a rubber band. The further extended we get in either direction, the more violent moves back to the mean we get. This doesn't change an overall trend, but will definitely point out when we get extended to one direction or another in the short term.
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Sanrith Descartes
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TLDR version:
Trading Index ETFs and Mutuals are for noobs.
Trading Individual stocks are for casuals.
Trading Options are for Raiders
Shorting stocks are for Hard-core Raiders.
Trading Index ETFs and Mutuals are for noobs.
Trading Individual stocks are for casuals.
Trading Options are for Raiders
Shorting stocks are for Hard-core Raiders.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Sanrith Descartes
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This is the way. They are doing layoffs while producing recod numbers of cars. This means they see they have a 1-year backlog on orders and a shortage of materials to bring that number in tighter so they cut excess headcount now and try to front run the recession. This is actual good management.
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Sanrith Descartes
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If anyone is thinking of going long anything today, I would highly advise waiting until the 3:51 dump that we all know is coming. If you cant be at the screen at the close then I would calculate some really crazy low entry points for limit orders and then make it even lower.
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Aldarion
Egg Nazi
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I've been riding inverse ETFs down the slope since April, took profits over the last week. I suspect we'll see a small fools rally from here. No illusions about trying to time it to a particular time of day but I'm betting on a short rally, maybe a week or so. People just cant seem to help themselves buying and I figure might as well profit from that too.
Still thinking SPY 300 to 340 is the real bottom. We're all throwing spaghetti at the wall here so feel free to mock!
Still thinking SPY 300 to 340 is the real bottom. We're all throwing spaghetti at the wall here so feel free to mock!
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Arden
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Been riding the same train. It's been good so far. When to get off is always the question, but like others in this thread have mentioned, I don't see any reason good economic news in the near future, so I'm going to keep riding.
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Sanrith Descartes
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GD/LMT/RTX
We call this reversion to the mean. Mr. Market is telling us those Ukraine-bux are about done...
GD 0% gain YTD
RTX 2% gain YTD
LMT 11% gain for the year and falling fast.
GD and RTX already below their pre-Ukraine frenzy.
We call this reversion to the mean. Mr. Market is telling us those Ukraine-bux are about done...
GD 0% gain YTD
RTX 2% gain YTD
LMT 11% gain for the year and falling fast.
GD and RTX already below their pre-Ukraine frenzy.
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Sanrith Descartes
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UNH first time under the 200-DMA since the week of Covid Black Monday. I am still not as buyer at this level. $415 - $420 is another story tho.
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Masakari
Which way, western man?
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Asking how to short a stock right when we have ripped >20% off the peak is the equivalent of buying high / selling low. You're trying to sell the low.
Sure we can have more downside, but this thesis of being negative on the market should have started months ago.
Same shit in the bull market / crypto market. They go on a tear and post huge gains, then the noobies get FOMO and start buying tops expecting the same results.
Buy low (now) and sell high (6 months ago when the wheels started falling off the bus). Or in the case of shorting, Sell (short) highs.
It becomes a simple case of downside risk vs upside potential. TLDR: You're doing this all backwards.
PS> I distinctly remember a post I made back in Q4 where I disclosed my cash position in which
My strategy is as an active trader who is literally staring at this stuff every day. For most people, you should just be looking to DCA into the huge swings low for the long term accounts. If you want to try and time some quick profits, use the 20 daily EMA and look for extremes. It basically acts as a rubber band. The further extended we get in either direction, the more violent moves back to the mean we get. This doesn't change an overall trend, but will definitely point out when we get extended to one direction or another in the short term.
lol... things are going to keep going down. I would not buy anything long term right now.
Sanrith Descartes
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JPM at a nearly 7-year low on PE. That being said, banks historically do not normally excel during a recession.
Jysin
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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Banks do better in higher rate environments, however .. consumer confidence in the toilet and a looming recession? Yea, not so great.
Keep in mind with the PE picture, these PEs are still kind of lofty on Earnings expectations coming out the covid run. As soon as these companies (not JPM specific) start posting misses and losses, the earnings come down, and with it the PE readjusts and doesn't look as favorable anymore.
Keep in mind with the PE picture, these PEs are still kind of lofty on Earnings expectations coming out the covid run. As soon as these companies (not JPM specific) start posting misses and losses, the earnings come down, and with it the PE readjusts and doesn't look as favorable anymore.
Sanrith Descartes
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Yep which is why i tend to use a 10-year backward look on stuff. Also, I have zero idea what the market will do tomorrow or next week. But I also know that some of the best long term deals are made during downturns. If I find quality on sale relative to its historical data I consider shopping. I am about 85% invested right onow so I dont have room for a lot of new positions and have instead added to existing stuff that I wasn't carrying a full position on. I am still shopping though for 2 or 3 new positions if the price looks right. BLK for example.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Jysin
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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Quoting myself, relevant link:Asking how to short a stock right when we have ripped >20% off the peak is the equivalent of buying high / selling low. You're trying to sell the low.
Sure we can have more downside, but this thesis of being negative on the market should have started months ago.
Same shit in the bull market / crypto market. They go on a tear and post huge gains, then the noobies get FOMO and start buying tops expecting the same results.
Buy low (now) and sell high (6 months ago when the wheels started falling off the bus). Or in the case of shorting, Sell (short) highs.
It becomes a simple case of downside risk vs upside potential. TLDR: You're doing this all backwards.
PS> I distinctly remember a post I made back in Q4 where I disclosed my cash position in which
My strategy is as an active trader who is literally staring at this stuff every day. For most people, you should just be looking to DCA into the huge swings low for the long term accounts. If you want to try and time some quick profits, use the 20 daily EMA and look for extremes. It basically acts as a rubber band. The further extended we get in either direction, the more violent moves back to the mean we get. This doesn't change an overall trend, but will definitely point out when we get extended to one direction or another in the short term.
Post-Lehman Path Makes a Case for Buying the Rout
Anyone who bet on US stocks in October 2008, well before the market bottomed, would have been up 440% by the peak last year.
www.bloomberg.com
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