Big Phoenix
Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
- 47,013
- 100,666
Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
- Start date
-
Guest, it's time once again for the massively important and exciting FoH Asshat Tournament!
Go here and give us your nominations!Who's been the biggest Asshat in the last year? Give us your worst ones!
Sanrith Descartes
You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
- 45,877
- 126,703
Market is moving up as money thinks the Fed wont have the nuts to raise 100 bp next week. How quickly they forget the CPI of 9.1% from 2 days ago.
- 1
Jysin
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
- 6,554
- 4,557
Because they literally have Fed members saying stuff like this today:
08:41 (US) Fed's Bostic (non-voter, hawk): 75bps was a 'big move in policy'; Fed wants policy transition to be orderly
- Moving too dramatically could undermine positive aspects of the economy and add to uncertainty
09:06 (US) Fed’s Bullard (voter, hawk):
- Inflation can come down to 2% over the next 18 months if the FED plays their cards right
Sanrith Descartes
You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
- 45,877
- 126,703
Blazin
Creative Title
- 7,254
- 36,884
Just a reminder since this thread has clearly forgotten. The markets will begin moving up when news is at it's worst not when it improves. That's how this shit works it's how it's always worked. Markets are a forward looking mechanism, nobody cares what inflation was last month outside of how it helps guide where it will be tomorrow. Tomorrow is all that matters and it's all that will ever matter.
- 8
- 1
Blazin
Creative Title
- 7,254
- 36,884
I moved in! Settlement on old house is today and it's a complete cluster. They tell me last minute that a bank back in 2005 failed to properly file a satisfaction piece with court house so scrambling around trying to fix.
Let lower field go way too long while I was working on house.
- 6
- 2
Tmac
Adventurer
- 10,132
- 17,336
Jysin
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
- 6,554
- 4,557
Let’s at least keep it in theme of the forum. Looks a bit like The Commonlands.
- 2
- 1
Mist
REEEEeyore
- 31,682
- 24,319
Do you think the odds that we're at the bottom of this cycle is greater than 50%?
Sanrith Descartes
You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
- 45,877
- 126,703
Is there where you are going to grow all the pot and poppies?
- 1
Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
- 40,946
- 137,200
That's definitely a true statement, but completely meaningless until we're in the future. We won't know the "bad news, market bottom" until we're already well past it. Is today's bad news the worst? Who knows!
- 1
Sanrith Descartes
You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
- 45,877
- 126,703
Yesterdays move down was pricing in a 50% chance of a 100 basis point hike next week. Today's move is pricing in a 17% chance of a 100 basis point hike next week. The future is now. And five minutes ago. And the next tweet in 5 minutes by a Fed president.
- 1
Mist
REEEEeyore
- 31,682
- 24,319
If inflation remains high, but the economic engine of the country remains chugging along reasonably well mechanically (especially when compared to the rest of the world in chaos) just everything has 30% bigger arbitrary fiat numbers associated with it, you're going to wish you moved your money out of cash and into equities now, while the prices are still depressed.
Avoid tech stocks that are dependent on selling software/subscriptions to overseas customers at terrible currency exchange rates though.
- 1
Sanrith Descartes
You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
- 45,877
- 126,703
Here is the 2-year SPY
Has the market priced in the worst at this point? Only the Shadow knows. We have to navigate earnings right now. Has the market already priced in a shitty earnings season? Remember when earnings misses were 10-20% drops a few months ago?
JPM missed and its green today. BLK missed and its green today. WFC missed and its green today. C missed and its green today.
Zog
Blackwing Lair Raider
- 1,812
- 2,341
Im looking for a sign from Bidens Saudi meeting to maybe have some effect.
Im assuming Saudi's will play nice but still be unable to bail out Biden with any increase to oil supply, WTI futures are waiting for a decision, could be the start of the run Buffett has been waiting for.
Im assuming Saudi's will play nice but still be unable to bail out Biden with any increase to oil supply, WTI futures are waiting for a decision, could be the start of the run Buffett has been waiting for.
Blazin
Creative Title
- 7,254
- 36,884
I'd say it's greater than 50% that we are within 10% of the bottom. I feel 1970 could be rather analogous to current market set up.
Years like 1970 is a reminder to keep an open mind. Many similar concerns to now and like now one of the worst first halves the market has ever had. Yet the market rallied back to even by year end. Were the concerns gone? Nope in fact the market struggled in this range for several years and didn't finally set a low until 1974.
We all can list the headwinds and they are concerning but it's very easy to become too bearish and think it's a lock. This game is not that easy. I'm quite sure that if the market gets any decent whiff that inflation is on the decline even if still elevated you are going to see a considerable shift in sentiment.
The bulls have a lot to work to do to prove their case, the trend is down and reversing it won't be easy. The market now has a set up for a leg/trend move just like it did in 1st week of June, at some point we are going to see a shift/change in behavior and it will rally through resistance rather than crash and burn. For people on the sidelines you don't have to guess, the more conservative position would be to wait for that follow through, let the market prove itself.
Do we need to drop to 3300 before that can happen? There is not an unreasonable chance of a yes. I chose to bet on this 380 level. I'm all in on retirement money. I have another $500-700k I'm looking to put to work and I'll be following the above advice, if the bottom is in then we will start noticing market behavioral changes. Moving averages will be captured and turn up.
- 5