Investing General Discussion

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Gravel

Gravel

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Sanrith Descartes said:
$GOOGL +3% on the double miss. $MSFT less than 1% down on the double miss. Maybe the markets priced in a steeper miss?

Who Knows Idk GIF


edit: apparently GOOGL beat last years Rev by like 12% even though it missed analysts estimates. $70b vs $62B last year.
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You should know better by now that after market doesn't matter. Shit is going to tank today, big time.

The only thing that might make it trade sideways is everyone waiting on the Fed, but after that it's a red day.
 
Jysin

Jysin

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The only thing I would caution is that there has been some shift where things are being bought on bad news. It is expected at this point. I honestly only see a 75bp move out of the Fed, but what we are looking for is the language. If they say they are seeing results from their actions, it will be considered bullish. If they aren't seeing progress (or enough of it), then it can be taken that they need to act more agressively.

Just be careful when trying to impose your expectations on the market. They are so far forward thinking that we can eat some Q2 misses, Fed tightening, and slowdowns if it means Fed is working as intended and doesn't need further surprise QT in the market in the near term. People will buy to get ahead of that and that is why I think we are trading these levels and not at the lows. Everything happening the last month has been (relatively) as predicted.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Gravel said:
You should know better by now that after market doesn't matter. Shit is going to tank today, big time.

The only thing that might make it trade sideways is everyone waiting on the Fed, but after that it's a red day.
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So far your bet would be a loser. We are looking green going into the wait for Janet and the Fed.
 
Zzen

Zzen

Potato del Grande
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Jysin said:
The only thing I would caution is that there has been some shift where things are being bought on bad news. It is expected at this point. I honestly only see a 75bp move out of the Fed, but what we are looking for is the language. If they say they are seeing results from their actions, it will be considered bullish. If they aren't seeing progress (or enough of it), then it can be taken that they need to act more agressively.

Just be careful when trying to impose your expectations on the market. They are so far forward thinking that we can eat some Q2 misses, Fed tightening, and slowdowns if it means Fed is working as intended and doesn't need further surprise QT in the market in the near term. People will buy to get ahead of that and that is why I think we are trading these levels and not at the lows. Everything happening the last month has been (relatively) as predicted.
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Activist invest Elliot capital taking some serious stake in PYPL. This is what has been moving it higher.
 
karma

karma

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The hardest thing I have had to do (and am still working on) as I learn to market, is understand my expectations/reality are not the markets expectations and/or reality.

I tend to be too much of a pessimist, so miss a lot of plays thinking things are gonna go further down than they do.

It has cost me money and opportunity in both directions!
 
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Mist

Mist

REEEEeyore
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Sanrith Descartes said:
There is an assload of buying going on for a Fed Rate Hike day.

Dice Vegas GIF by The Weeknd
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And the fact that they're going to announce a recession on Thursday.

karma said:
The hardest thing I have had to do (and am still working on) as I learn to market, is understand my expectations/reality are not the markets expectations and/or reality.

I tend to be too much of a pessimist, so miss a lot of plays thinking things are gonna go further down than they do.

It has cost me money and opportunity in both directions!
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The hardest part is realizing what good or bad news has already been priced into the current valuations.
 
C

Creslin

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One of the hardest things in a highly inflationary environment is realizing that even if the markets go up slightly it can still be a negative real return. If they markets rally an insane amount from now to year end and finish up 4% in nominal points from where they were on Jan 1, that is a negative 5% real return. It's a hard thing to wrap your head around that inflation also inflates the nominal value of the markets making nominal declines less likely the higher inflation goes.
 
M

Mikey

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Msft is up because their cloud numbers were strong. That's the future and what the market wants to see.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Mist said:
Same with Google.
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It was even more with GOOGL. There year over year numbers were insanely good. 12-14% increase for the quarter. It was just the "miss" on expectations. Their actual numbers are strong and did not show the decline in advertising that others had seen.
 
Furry

Furry

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I'm fully onboard with the fact that this recession is going to be unique in history. The debt levels and amount of money we have flinging around are just insane compared to any point in history. I think it's anybody's guess on what will happen, but that's the main reason I haven't flinched through any of this red we've seen. Money goes into market.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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My portfolio is +3.10% on the day. I know it wont last and its most likely going to disappear as soon as Janet begins talking but it does feel good for this small moment in time.
 
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