Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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Seems like if it were a case of an insider liquidating before the market crash, he would've done so back in December/January, not after the market is down 14-20%.
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Investing General Discussion
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Seems like if it were a case of an insider liquidating before the market crash, he would've done so back in December/January, not after the market is down 14-20%.
Sanrith Descartes
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NVDA preliminary results are not good. Trying to parse through them but basically gaming sales down because "economy" but center sales up 1%
Sanrith Descartes
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Sanrith Descartes
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Furry
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With the buyback tax, stocks will probably do good this year and next.
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Tmac
Adventurer
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So, I did a good job of buying the downtrend, but now I kind of feel frozen knowing what to do as everyting is bouncing hard for the last few weeks.
My first question is, is it reasonable to think that I've missed the jump and need to wait for the next dip? I feel like the answer is no.
Secondly, how do I pick my next investments when they're all bouncing?
Been following QQQ, SPY, XBI, and BLK mostly.
My first question is, is it reasonable to think that I've missed the jump and need to wait for the next dip? I feel like the answer is no.
Secondly, how do I pick my next investments when they're all bouncing?
Been following QQQ, SPY, XBI, and BLK mostly.
Sanrith Descartes
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If you are buying for the long term, you keep what you bought and add on weakness. What is weakness? Use the skills reading charts and resistance/support levels that we have taught you the last few years. If anything is not a long term hold, the consider selling when it runs into overhead resistance and try to recapture it if it fails and falls.
In my opinion this is no v-gap recovery. I expect lots more buying opportunities in the coming months and we test resistance and retest support.
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Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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We're at the same spot we were back in June. The market has a long way to go. It's about 14% down from the start of the year, although that lines up pretty much with the ATH.
I got in on your first post about it. I can buy lambos and unlimited Bitcoin now.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Not being political in the investing thread, but the Dems using the FBI to raid the home of a former President who is the front runner to win the Presidency away from the same Dems running the FBI is a black swan event that even the algos couldnt have calculated. Tomorrow is going to be interesting.
Jysin
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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I don’t care what political affiliation any president is, but the accusation of taking classified documents from the WH should have the same result. Who else is going to knock on the door and search? Hillary server was just as ridiculous and should have had further repercussions as well.
ps. Market won’t care about this.
ps. Market won’t care about this.
Falstaff
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Aldarion
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Anyone still expecting surprising bad news to cause the market to tank hasnt paid a minute of attention in 2022.
China could announce theyre launching nukes in 5 minutes at the start of the bell and we'd either see a flat day or rocket to ATH that same day. Equal probability of both outcomes.
Clown world doesnt end when you reach the stock market
China could announce theyre launching nukes in 5 minutes at the start of the bell and we'd either see a flat day or rocket to ATH that same day. Equal probability of both outcomes.
Clown world doesnt end when you reach the stock market
Sanrith Descartes
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Furry
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It seems there may have been a Himars attack on Russian military base deep in Crimea. Still unconfirmed at the moment, but Russia has stated the reaction to something like that would be extreme.
Aldarion
Egg Nazi
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I'm balls deep in inverse ETFs, don't get me wrong, theres no doubt in my mind we've got another leg down.
But as far as I can see, almost every piece of extremely bad news this year has been followed by a flat or green day. I don't pretend to know why that is, unlike just about every market article posted on the internet this year. I'm just watching and can't help but notice obvious patterns. (I'm sure someone will chime in and try to convince me thats because the bad news wasnt actually bad news, I read that argument a lot, and find it pretty unconvincing)
I hope you're right! Crashes are beautiful things and we deserve one.
Jysin
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Sentiment changed a bit recently where any negative news is just looked past with the hopes that peak inflation is behind us and the Fed becomes more accommodative. The CPI print will mean a lot on that sentiment tomorrow, however there are still quite a few external factors to get beyond. Risk-on is certainly here for the moment. I will point out, that sentiment can change very quickly if we start diving lower on sticky inflation (more aggressive Fed), recession, Russia / China politics, etc.
The risk-on right now is the hope we navigate through it all and start the grind back higher. I really would have loved to see another leg down and a capitulation trade. We really haven't seen that in this bear cycle (not all bear cycles get them). But the capitulation trade can typically be far more profitable and I would have taken leveraged positions into those (SPXL / TQQQ).
So, for now we are in slightly positive sentiment. But we can still see back to 380-400 SPY quite easily. The truth is, you shouldn't be trying to cherry pick a bottom and should have been scaling into the market weakness of the last months. My last SPY buys were ~377. I had orders around 360 and kick myself for missing that fill when we rounded the (current) bottom around 362.
You need to have a good chunk of your money at work, especially when we had discounted 20% off the highs.
The risk-on right now is the hope we navigate through it all and start the grind back higher. I really would have loved to see another leg down and a capitulation trade. We really haven't seen that in this bear cycle (not all bear cycles get them). But the capitulation trade can typically be far more profitable and I would have taken leveraged positions into those (SPXL / TQQQ).
So, for now we are in slightly positive sentiment. But we can still see back to 380-400 SPY quite easily. The truth is, you shouldn't be trying to cherry pick a bottom and should have been scaling into the market weakness of the last months. My last SPY buys were ~377. I had orders around 360 and kick myself for missing that fill when we rounded the (current) bottom around 362.
You need to have a good chunk of your money at work, especially when we had discounted 20% off the highs.
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Jysin
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Just noticed NCLH (Norwegian Cruise Lines) posted worse than expected Q2 and issued Q3 guide below estimates. Occupancy in the 80% range.
So much for all of that "pent-up demand" and "unprecedented bookings" that the CEO was talking about for the last year.
Stock is down more than 10%.
**Our nameles forum member here was posting "all-in" on the sector when it was trading ~$27 a share. Here we are at $12. Just a lesson not to let your emotion / bias get in the way of actual price action on a chart. Supply and demand stock prices are the true determinate of value.
So much for all of that "pent-up demand" and "unprecedented bookings" that the CEO was talking about for the last year.
Stock is down more than 10%.
**Our nameles forum member here was posting "all-in" on the sector when it was trading ~$27 a share. Here we are at $12. Just a lesson not to let your emotion / bias get in the way of actual price action on a chart. Supply and demand stock prices are the true determinate of value.