Investing General Discussion

  • Guest, it's time once again for the massively important and exciting FoH Asshat Tournament!



    Go here and give us your nominations!
    Who's been the biggest Asshat in the last year? Give us your worst ones!
Edaw

Edaw

Parody
<Gold Donor>
14,048
95,479
Sanrith Descartes said:
Click to expand...

NecessaryUnripeDore-size_restricted.gif
 
  • 2Worf
  • 1Like
Reactions: 2 users
Mist

Mist

REEEEeyore
<Gold Donor>
31,680
24,332
Rais said:
Just means to buy the dip.
Click to expand...
Kuro said:
How much did Mist buy before posting
Click to expand...
I bought 10k today.

>20% of F500 companies are heavily dependent on Avaya Aura and related products in some way or another, and many of them have massive new projects already in motion. Even if they all decided to move off Avaya today, those projects would take at least 3 years to scope and complete, likely with a massive loss of functionality. A couple very large companies, namely AT&T and Comcast, are so dependent on Avaya that they might just be forced to buy it to keep it afloat.

The company has massive debt and will start to default in about 3 quarters. It will either get sold off in parts or as a whole. As a penny stock, the upside is potentially huge. It's a massive gamble but uh, I've got money, and this is a good Bayesian bet. I'd say there's a 30% chance that Avaya is able to recover to at least $5, netting a >7.5x return, and a 70% chance it collapses and gets sold off for parts, which might still net shareholders more money than the current price. Avaya's channel partners and the rest of the industry have a lot of faith in the new CEO, and faith that he wouldn't have taken the job if there wasn't an above 50% chance of turnaround. Even if it just recovers to $2 that's a huge return from the price right now.

Also, Avaya was in this exact situation 5 years ago. They went into chapter 11 and became the property of their creditors and got relisted later that year.

Again, it's a huge bet, but when you look at the upside, it makes sense.
 
  • 1Thoughts & Prayers
Reactions: 1 user
Lightning Lord Rule

Il_Duce Lightning Lord Rule

Lightning Fast
<Charitable Administrator>
11,169
59,752
Mist said:
I bought 10k today.

>20% of F500 companies are heavily dependent on Avaya Aura and related products in some way or another, and many of them have massive new projects already in motion. Even if they all decided to move off Avaya today, those projects would take at least 3 years to scope and complete, likely with a massive loss of functionality. A couple very large companies, namely AT&T and Comcast, are so dependent on Avaya that they might just be forced to buy it to keep it afloat.

The company has massive debt and will start to default in about 3 quarters. It will either get sold off in parts or as a whole. As a penny stock, the upside is potentially huge. It's a massive gamble but uh, I've got money, and this is a good Bayesian bet. I'd say there's a 30% chance that Avaya is able to recover to at least $5, netting a >7.5x return, and a 70% chance it collapses and gets sold off for parts, which might still net shareholders more money than the current price. Avaya's channel partners and the rest of the industry have a lot of faith in the new CEO, and faith that he wouldn't have taken the job if there wasn't an above 50% chance of turnaround. Even if it just recovers to $2 that's a huge return from the price right now.

Also, Avaya was in this exact situation 5 years ago. They went into chapter 11 and became the property of their creditors and got relisted later that year.

Again, it's a huge bet, but when you look at the upside, it makes sense.
Click to expand...
This seems like sound logic assuming the info is true, but then again it's Mist posting...

tenor.gif
 
Mist

Mist

REEEEeyore
<Gold Donor>
31,680
24,332
I'm a Contact Center/SIP engineer for an Avaya channel partner, personally involved with a few very massive Avaya projects. 8 figure projects. These are companies that explored every other possible option and still landed on Avaya. If you need to build something on the scale of having your own personal phone company, like say, a company like Comcast or AAA, then Avaya is pretty much your only option.

Then again, the main upside of Avaya is that it's developer-friendly. If they get sold off for parts, whomever gets Avaya Aura and the related components would need to follow through on that. If Avaya stays afloat as a corpse, but cuts its developer relations, it will just die a slower death.

Avaya's business model in its current form is terrible. It directly competes with its own channel partners for revenue.
 
Last edited:
  • 1Like
Reactions: 1 user
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
<Gold Donor>
45,850
126,616
Kuro said:
How much did Mist buy before posting
Click to expand...

Mist said:
I bought 10k today.

>20% of F500 companies are heavily dependent on Avaya Aura and related products in some way or another, and many of them have massive new projects already in motion. Even if they all decided to move off Avaya today, those projects would take at least 3 years to scope and complete, likely with a massive loss of functionality. A couple very large companies, namely AT&T and Comcast, are so dependent on Avaya that they might just be forced to buy it to keep it afloat.

The company has massive debt and will start to default in about 3 quarters. It will either get sold off in parts or as a whole. As a penny stock, the upside is potentially huge. It's a massive gamble but uh, I've got money, and this is a good Bayesian bet. I'd say there's a 30% chance that Avaya is able to recover to at least $5, netting a >7.5x return, and a 70% chance it collapses and gets sold off for parts, which might still net shareholders more money than the current price. Avaya's channel partners and the rest of the industry have a lot of faith in the new CEO, and faith that he wouldn't have taken the job if there wasn't an above 50% chance of turnaround. Even if it just recovers to $2 that's a huge return from the price right now.

Also, Avaya was in this exact situation 5 years ago. They went into chapter 11 and became the property of their creditors and got relisted later that year.

Again, it's a huge bet, but when you look at the upside, it makes sense.
Click to expand...
Most likely event is a reverse split to avoid de-listing from the exchange. Following the reverse split it will get shorted/sold right back down. Just my guess.
 
SeanDoe1z1

SeanDoe1z1

Avatar of War Slayer
7,312
18,834
I bought 6 EVs today with a bank loan at 24% and 40kyr income

Economy back on all cylinders
 
  • 1Like
Reactions: 1 user
Mist

Mist

REEEEeyore
<Gold Donor>
31,680
24,332
SeanDoe1z1 said:
I bought 6 EVs today with a bank loan at 24% and 40kyr income

Economy back on all cylinders
Click to expand...
You joke, but that's the upside of inflation; it encourages purchases now, and discourages savings, which keeps demand high, and high demand keeps the labor market strong.

Once the supply chain issues finally settle down, I would expect CPI to come down from where it is, but not as dramatically as people would hope.
 
SeanDoe1z1

SeanDoe1z1

Avatar of War Slayer
7,312
18,834
I’ve been at one of Motorolas corporate office this last couple weeks.

I’ve been floating the idea of avaya operating a cloud based service on the cheap for them in a purchase.

I’m doing my part Mist Mist
 
  • 1Mother of God
Reactions: 1 user
You must log in or register to reply here.