Investing General Discussion

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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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I have been on both sides of the fence. About a year ago Blazin Blazin was making fun of my conservative strategy. I was watching macro data and bond yields and I was sure a down turn was coming. The problem (like Michael Burry) was I was off by about a year. I benefited from being near 90% cash when the crash hit but I lost out on gains last year by being in cash.

I realized that I had spent a long time fighting the market. Mr. Market always wins. Once I accepted this and put together a go along to get along strategy I went to work in Feb. The result is my brokerage is up over 10% and my IRA is 3% from green. Tech is the lead dog and I am running with the pack this time. QQQ, MSFT. AAPL, V, SPYG and IVV make the core of my new portfolio. We have to forget what we "think" about the market and just go wherever the data points to.
 
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Furry

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Blazin said:
In regards to retirement, how do you plan on living on those funds if interest rates stay low? You say different people different goals but you don't sound much different than me other than just being further back. You mentioned only having a few hundred thousand how would you live on that for potentially 40+ yrs? I live pretty simply with no debt and I still don't see how that is doable without really skimping.
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Don't gotta worry about my feelings.

I'm not going to keep it in govies forever, I'll move back in the market and stay there for the majority of my time to and post retirement. This is actually my longest time out by far since I started excluding the week long waffle. As for the math side of thing, I have a pretty sizeable pension which will give me enough to live off of immediately if I skimp. It's direct from the US fed so it's at less risk than most pensions. Past that I figured to live comfortably and do everything I want I'd need another 500k. So I set my sights on 1m and am sticking to that. I contribued around 26k last year, and my goal was to hit 27k this year. Probably wont make it, but on a normal year I would have.
 
Blazin

Blazin

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Sanrith Descartes said:
I have been on both sides of the fence. About a year ago Blazin Blazin was making fun of my conservative strategy.
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Probably not the fairest of characterizations :)

Sanrith Descartes said:
We have to forget what we "think" about the market and just go wherever the data points to.
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I don't try to get anyone to be bearish or bullish people need to make their own choices. I only try to help people look at things from a less bias perspective and avoid common pitfalls of thought and this sentence here gives me hope that message is being heard. Keep an open mind, follow the weight of the evidence. That's my mantra, up market, down market, whatever. The more we realize our bias and emotions are the biggest impediment to reaching goals the better suited we will be to achieve them. Never act emotionally with your investments.

And as a constant reminder to others who may be reading, better than all of these guidelines for navigating the markets is to SAVE money, live below your means, and get rid of debt. These actions dramatically lower the investing bar you have to hurdle over, so not a big risk taker that's fine you can still achieve financial independence without big market returns.

Now if we can just get our Fed to stop hating the shit out of savers, life will get a lot easier.
 
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Furry

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Blazin said:
And as a constant reminder to others who may be reading, better than all of these guidelines for navigating the markets is to SAVE money, live below your means, and get rid of debt. These actions traumatically lower the investing bar you have to hurdle over, so not a big risk taker that's fine you can still achieve financial independence without big market returns.
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I stick to that philosophy pretty strongly. I've almost never been in any form of debt outside of my house (which is 1/3 of what I was approved for), and didn't even have a credit card until over 30. I was extremely poor and hungry for a period in my life, so I cook my own food religiously and most of the plants in my garden are edible. Money is comfortable for me now, but I've actually done this:

 
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TJT

TJT

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Blazin said:
Probably not the fairest of characterizations :)



I don't try to get anyone to be bearish or bullish people need to make their own choices. I only try to help people look at things from a less bias perspective and avoid common pitfalls of thought and this sentence here gives me hope that message is being heard. Keep an open mind, follow the weight of the evidence. That's my mantra, up market, down market, whatever. The more we realize our bias and emotions are the biggest impediment to reaching goals the better suited we will be to achieve them. Never act emotionally with your investments.

And as a constant reminder to others who may be reading, better than all of these guidelines for navigating the markets is to SAVE money, live below your means, and get rid of debt. These actions dramatically lower the investing bar you have to hurdle over, so not a big risk taker that's fine you can still achieve financial independence without big market returns.

Now if we can just get our Fed to stop hating the shit out of savers, life will get a lot easier.
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Truth. I've always lived well below my means and just invested anything extra. Which is the majority of my income. This doesn't prevent you from doing anything because I still do plenty of dumb shit that, "wastes" money. I travel when I want and buy what I feel like. However I do not give into emotional buying under nearly any circumstances. I have no debt other than my house which is <$100k right now and the only reason I don't just pay it off is because the ROI on my returns is greater than the interest I am paying on the remaining home loan.

If you do this and invest the rest in just about anything you'll be in a strong position in the long term. Be lazy and buy nothing but index funds. Whatever.
 
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Fogel

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Furry said:
I stick to that philosophy pretty strongly. I've almost never been in any form of debt outside of my house (which is 1/3 of what I was approved for), and didn't even have a credit card until over 30. I was extremely poor and hungry for a period in my life, so I cook my own food religiously and most of the plants in my garden are edible. Money is comfortable for me now, but I've actually done this:

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Back when I worked in the restaurant there was a bus boy who would put half eatten sandwiches in his pockets and take them home
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Some bear porn for you doom and groomers. Its a long read but it has pretty charts.

 
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Furry

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Sanrith Descartes said:
groomers.
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I can definitely see that happening in EURO zone. You could argue there was a bit of deflation going on there before this crisis. One of the reasons I've been against the fed's approach. Our national debt gonna be yuge coming out of this. Deflation would be catastrophically bad in that situation. Fed should have let the fire burn in the wild before sucking in so much bad debt.
 
Sludig

Sludig

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As a non investor, looking for andvice on multiple 401ks. I have bulk of my money in one from a job I've had a few years in vanguard or other market indexed. (Empower I think) I left for another job for 1 year and have a 401 with Tiaa. I returned to first job but the contract company changed so now my money is going into a 3rd companies 401, forget name atm.


I'd kinda like to get them all rolled into one place for simplicity. Any drawback or benefit of trying to consolidate them right now vs in a possible recovered market?
 
Furry

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Sludig said:
As a non investor, looking for andvice on multiple 401ks. I have bulk of my money in one from a job I've had a few years in vanguard or other market indexed. (Empower I think) I left for another job for 1 year and have a 401 with Tiaa. I returned to first job but the contract company changed so now my money is going into a 3rd companies 401, forget name atm.


I'd kinda like to get them all rolled into one place for simplicity. Any drawback or benefit of trying to consolidate them right now vs in a possible recovered market?
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Do you like the 401k you got now? How accessable it is, fund choices, managament fees ect. If they aren't as good as vanguards I'd roll your 2nd into vanguard and keep it and your current one. Roll what ya got now into vanguard when you leave.

If what ya got now is good, can put everything into it, but vanguard is kinda a gold standard. They run a good ship and are as good as any other company to have your money in. Other companies are as good, though.
 
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Pops

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Sludig said:
As a non investor, looking for andvice on multiple 401ks. I have bulk of my money in one from a job I've had a few years in vanguard or other market indexed. (Empower I think) I left for another job for 1 year and have a 401 with Tiaa. I returned to first job but the contract company changed so now my money is going into a 3rd companies 401, forget name atm.


I'd kinda like to get them all rolled into one place for simplicity. Any drawback or benefit of trying to consolidate them right now vs in a possible recovered market?
Click to expand...

Roll it all over into one account at a main US discount broker. I use Fidelity. If I was more aggressive I would be using Interactive Broker. If I was crazy, I would use Robinhood.
 
Furry

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Pops said:
Roll it all over into one account at a main US discount broker. I use Fidelity. If I was more aggressive I would be using Interactive Broker. If I was crazy, I would use Robinhood.
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He might be required to keep his current one while working there. Some places have vesting rules and similar things worth considering. It may be a big hassle to keep rolling over in those cases. Fidelity is a great choice, but he already has a vanguard, so I'd stick with them.
 
Sludig

Sludig

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Furry said:
Do you like the 401k you got now? How accessable it is, fund choices, managament fees ect. If they aren't as good as vanguards I'd roll your 2nd into vanguard and keep it and your current one. Roll what ya got now into vanguard when you leave.

If what ya got now is good, can put everything into it, but vanguard is kinda a gold standard. They run a good ship and are as good as any other company to have your money in. Other companies are as good, though.
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One of those companies offered a vanguard option but wasn't vanguard itself.if that matters.

I have no idea what's good or not honestly. My rehire was kinda off the cuff and I don't think I've even made my selections since I restarted in January since I skipped some of the normal HR rigamorole. Doesn't help the new contract company is technically filing back ruptcy so theoretically in the next year another company could scoop up the contract if they dissolve.
 
Pops

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Sludig said:
One of those companies offered a vanguard option but wasn't vanguard itself.if that matters.

I have no idea what's good or not honestly. My rehire was kinda off the cuff and I don't think I've even made my selections since I restarted in January since I skipped some of the normal HR rigamorole. Doesn't help the new contract company is technically filing back ruptcy so theoretically in the next year another company could scoop up the contract if they dissolve.
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I would fill out transfer papers Monday.
 
Furry

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Sludig said:
One of those companies offered a vanguard option but wasn't vanguard itself.if that matters.

I have no idea what's good or not honestly. My rehire was kinda off the cuff and I don't think I've even made my selections since I restarted in January since I skipped some of the normal HR rigamorole. Doesn't help the new contract company is technically filing back ruptcy so theoretically in the next year another company could scoop up the contract if they dissolve.
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401ks are a great investment generally. If your company matches it's the best investment up until the match. It a really good idea to pick up that at the very minimum.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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There can be a little more to it. My advice, contact Fidelity, Schwab, Merrill etc ,(pick one) and ask them to examine all your 401ks (they will need the info on each) and tell you what can be consolidated, what fees are involved if you move them to another company and if they will cover those fees (usually the answer is yes). Once you have all that info you can make an informed decision.
 
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