Investing General Discussion

Khane · Apr 27, 2020

There's gonna be a lot of angry vegans this morning!

LachiusTZ · Apr 27, 2020

Sanrith Descartes said:
Gonna be an exciting week for earnings.

Anyone doing options prior to warming ws?

Or waiting until after to buy etc?

Sanrith Descartes · Apr 27, 2020

LachiusTZ said:
Anyone doing options prior to warming ws?

Or waiting until after to buy etc?

Earnings right now is like a blindfolded dart throw. And I believe options have priced in the "nobody knows shit" factor. Also, even a beat may not mean much depending on the overall market that particular day. LMT beat got flushed away on a down day.

Sanrith Descartes · Apr 27, 2020

The USO shitshow continues. Only down about 20% this morning. I bet all the Robinhood traders are dollar cost averaging down today

LachiusTZ · Apr 27, 2020

Sanrith Descartes said:
Earnings right now is like a blindfolded dart throw. And I believe options have priced in the "nobody knows shit" factor. Also, even a beat may not mean much depending on the overall market that particular day. LMT beat got flushed away on a down day.

I'm tempted to throw a couple darts

Lol

Sanrith Descartes · Apr 27, 2020

I think the big tech companies most at risk are FB and GOOG due to their exposure to advertising revenue. I think AAPL is at risk due to handsets. I think AMZN, MSFT will be the big winners this week.

Gravel · Apr 27, 2020

TJT said:
Truth. I've always lived well below my means and just invested anything extra. Which is the majority of my income. This doesn't prevent you from doing anything because I still do plenty of dumb shit that, "wastes" money. I travel when I want and buy what I feel like. However I do not give into emotional buying under nearly any circumstances. I have no debt other than my house which is <$100k right now and the only reason I don't just pay it off is because the ROI on my returns is greater than the interest I am paying on the remaining home loan.

If you do this and invest the rest in just about anything you'll be in a strong position in the long term. Be lazy and buy nothing but index funds. Whatever.

This is how we were for years. And we found the FIRE movement at a good time, probably when our household income was around $50-60k.

We've accelerated over the years and now we're about at the top 10% of income earners, still living like we did when we were earning the median household wages.

The plan had been to retire next year, but this little market drop has pushed that back a good amount (we'll see how much, but we were down well into six figures so there's a lot of ground to make up). On the plus side, we've now had our big market drop that should've happened years ago. So now we can go into retirement much more comfortable.

Furry · Apr 27, 2020

Sanrith Descartes said:
The USO shitshow continues. Only down about 20% this morning. I bet all the Robinhood traders are dollar cost averaging down today

I know USO has detached off of the futures it's supposed to track to a big degree, but good god. The bloodbath in oil looks like it's going to keep going with the contagion spreading to a lot of other staples. Agri productions look like there's going to be a few entering nightmare spirals.

This is a siege completely unlike what the fed has seen before. Commodities and credit market are a major problem that the earning seasons are really just a facade to. Normally when there's too much and it becomes unprofitable, the gov steps in to buy and dump extra product and stabilize it. Can you really see them doing that now with everyone in the public seeing a shortage? What an ugly spot to be in.

Sanrith Descartes · Apr 27, 2020

Furry said:
I know USO has detached off of the futures it's supposed to track to a big degree, but good god. The bloodbath in oil looks like it's going to keep going with the contagion spreading to a lot of other staples. Agri productions look like there's going to be a few entering nightmare spirals.

This is a siege completely unlike what the fed has seen before. Commodities and credit market are a major problem that the earning seasons are really just a facade to. Normally when there's too much and it becomes unprofitable, the gov steps in to buy and dump extra product and stabilize it. Can you really see them doing that now with everyone in the public seeing a shortage? What an ugly spot to be in.

It announced this morning it is changing its portfolio composition again. 30% in June contracts and 15% in each of the following months (aug, sep, oct and dec). Its making the move over the next 3 days. So more selling low and buying high. God what an ass-fucking this is giving to its shareholders.

Flobee · Apr 27, 2020

Gravel said:
The plan had been to retire next year, but this little market drop has pushed that back a good amount (we'll see how much, but we were down well into six figures so there's a lot of ground to make up). On the plus side, we've now had our big market drop that should've happened years ago. So now we can go into retirement much more comfortable.

Gotta feel good having this happen while you're still employed rather than a couple years into FIRE. Good for you man! Wish I'd learned about FIRE earlier myself, although I don't envy you for having to watch that number drop.

Sanrith Descartes · Apr 27, 2020

Been a long time since I said the words DIS and JPM are leading the pack up.

Sanrith Descartes · Apr 27, 2020

Indexes up 1% and all the FANG/MAGA stocks in the red.

LachiusTZ · Apr 27, 2020

Sanrith Descartes said:
Indexes up 1% and all the FANG/MAGA stocks in the red.

Elon making me rich

Pops · Apr 27, 2020

Was a freedom rally. My hotel and grocery reits caught their first real bid in forever. Lux apparel CPRI is slip sliding away. Have to reassess. I'm finally out of the energy and shipping biz. Just seemed like rotation from techs. Which is very healthy. Need to broaden the new Bull.

Sanrith Descartes · Apr 27, 2020

Pops said:
Was a freedom rally. My hotel and grocery reits caught their first real bid in forever. Lux apparel CPRI is slip sliding away. Have to reassess. I'm finally out of the energy and shipping biz. Just seemed like rotation from techs. Which is very healthy. Need to broaden the new Bull.

Pops · Apr 27, 2020

You may think it's a roulette wheel. I don't. But then again you buy options.

Sanrith Descartes · Apr 27, 2020

Pops said:
You may think it's a roulette wheel. I don't. But then again you buy options.

I'm just funnin' with you

Pops · Apr 27, 2020

Haha. After wormie getting under my skin, I'm irritable at those that have no skin in the game.

Sanrith Descartes · Apr 27, 2020

This week is the test I think. SP almost at 2900 and we have the big dogs reporting results. If things go well on Thursday I can see a blowout to the top on Friday. If they screw the pooch on Thursday I can see an elevator down 5+ %.

Ain't it cool.

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