Investing General Discussion

fris · Oct 20, 2022

i've had to cut back on 401k, still well above company match but no longer on target to make out at end of year. still doing hsa max and i put 6k in roth on jan 1. /sigh

the worst part on cutting back 401k is you really see the difference in taxes. 500 less a paycheck going into 401k nets about 250 more going into my checking account. stings not buying things that are on sale now too. i was running as lean as i could to max everything out, couldn't keep up with inflation.

Blazin · Oct 21, 2022

reavor · Oct 21, 2022

ugh this past couple of weeks...

Jysin · Oct 21, 2022

Nija · Oct 21, 2022

Sanrith Descartes said:
My 1-yr return is now below -20%

Nice work breaking through. I’m sitting at -24%!

Jysin · Oct 21, 2022

Still relatively flat on the year in long term accounts. -0.3% in one account and -0.16% in another. (Active swing trading through this bear market)
A separate (small) Roth IRA I landed some nice options plays this year and up nearly 20% in it.

Green on daytrade account, albeit significantly smaller size trading in the volatility.

DayTrade journal:

More stats YTD in daytrade:

Sanrith Descartes · Oct 21, 2022

Nija said:
Nice work breaking through. I’m sitting at -24%!

I owe it all to selling my shitty Cramer stocks.

Sanrith Descartes · Oct 21, 2022

Jysin said:
Still relatively flat on the year in long term accounts. -0.3% in one account and -0.16% in another. (Active swing trading through this bear market)
A separate (small) Roth IRA I landed some nice options plays this year and up nearly 20% in it.

Green on daytrade account, albeit significantly smaller size trading in the volatility.

DayTrade journal:

View attachment 439164

More stats YTD in daytrade:
View attachment 439165

Interesting that your avg winning trade is 17 hours but your avg losing trade is 2 days.

Jysin · Oct 21, 2022

My trade style. I am only entering with multiple support zones below. eg: buying on a big pivot support, but there is also a 100DMA right below. I never go full size on any trade. So I may put 1/3 on the first spot, leaving 2/3 for the support below it. Initial reaction to the pivot and first buy may be a short bounce, but later fall (or overextend) to the 2nd support for the larger buy. May take longer for that trade to fail and I cut the loss.

So naturally my usual trades are planned and executed and only need to hit that first support entry.

And when I am implying a full size 3/3 trade, that is only an allocated (maybe 10-20%) total cash BP (rarely use margin outside of extreme circumstance).

I am also trying to stop catching falling knives in this market and buy "the other side of the V". Lance Breitstein has a lot of talk about this.

(EV = Expected Value)

Sanrith Descartes · Oct 21, 2022

Jysin said:
My trade style. I am only entering with multiple support zones below. eg: buying on a big pivot support, but there is also a 100DMA right below. I never go full size on any trade. So I may put 1/3 on the first spot, leaving 2/3 for the support below it. Initial reaction to the pivot and first buy may be a short bounce, but later fall (or overextend) to the 2nd support for the larger buy. May take longer for that trade to fail and I cut the loss.

So naturally my usual trades are planned and executed and only need to hit that first support entry.

And when I am implying a full size 3/3 trade, that is only an allocated (maybe 10-20%) total cash BP (rarely use margin outside of extreme circumstance).

I am also trying to stop catching falling knives in this market and buy "the other side of the V". Lance Breitstein has a lot of talk about this.

(EV = Expected Value)

View attachment 439169

So you thirds for measuring a full position and not quarters? You have been in England too long

Jysin · Oct 21, 2022

Sanrith Descartes said:
So you thirds for measuring a full position and not quarters? You have been in England too long

More of a hyper simplified explanation.

Jysin · Oct 21, 2022

Yields pulling down from highs, VIX back below 30. Check your bias.
This article being cited for the catalyst for the move up today:

Fed Set to Raise Rates by 0.75 Point and Debate Size of Future Hikes

Some officials have begun signaling their desire to slow down the pace of increases soon and to stop raising rates early next year to see how their moves this year are slowing the economy.

www.wsj.com

10:30 (US) Market Trading Hours Summary: Risk appetite resurfaces after Fed whisperer Timiraos hints at a downshift by the Fed
Summary:
Markets were under some duress ahead of the opening bell as fresh cycle highs in global interest rates weighed on sentiment. Earnings were not providing much help as investors sold off shares of AXP, VZ, THC, and SNP post results. The Dollar was rising, while commodities and most other risk assets were heavy. Futures markets were briefly beginning to price in a Fed funds rate above 5% by the middle of next year. Risk-on trade found significant legs, though, after a report in the WSJ suggested Federal Reserve officials could set the stage in November to slow the pace of rate hikes to 50 bps in December. The benchmark US 10-year had been trading above 4.3% for the first time since 2007 but yields quickly came off by 10bps or so across the curve. Stocks rose amid strong volumes on the NYSE. Commodities climbed, led by oil, and the US dollar gave back ground. - Source TradeTheNews.com

Sanrith Descartes · Oct 21, 2022

One thing I do that I recommend to people is to follow trades you exit for a time. See if your initial thoughts were correct down the road. Example, i twice this month got in and out of the $25 strike MP puts expiring today. First time I got out with near max profit and the second time I bailed at minor profit when the market really puked and I lost confidence in the trade.

So today is expiry and looking at MP its at $28.88 and at its low it only hit $26.19 so my initial trade analysis was sound. The trade was a winner. I have no regrets bailing early the second flip but by tracking the trade it lets me really see if the trade was a good one from the get go.

Sanrith Descartes · Oct 21, 2022

Also one of my new ways to watch the market is focusing on my SPIR position its been bouncing between more than -50% down and less than -50% down lately. So on days like today I can look at it and think "Yes!, Less than 50% down!". By lunch i expect it fully be over 50% but gotta find the little joys you can these market days.

Edit: back over -50% down.

Sanrith Descartes · Oct 21, 2022

Last thing.
Put in some small bids:
META at $123 (lots of support at this level) and its PE is 10 with EPS of about 14

TSLA at $200. Fuckton of puts expiring at the 200 strike today. I think it if hits 200 it bounces and the company is still showing growth and keeping its market lead as everyone else is now learning its not that easy to just make EVs that work.

HD adding at $265

I am still researching UNPs earnings. I am trying calculate a good entry price.

Sanrith Descartes · Oct 21, 2022

For those playing at home who havent been investing very little long, this isnt normal.

Furry · Oct 21, 2022

Sanrith Descartes said:
Last thing.
Put in some small bids:
META at $123 (lots of support at this level) and its PE is 10 with EPS of about 14

TSLA at $200. Fuckton of puts expiring at the 200 strike today. I think it if hits 200 it bounces and the company is still showing growth and keeping its market lead as everyone else is now learning its not that easy to just make EVs that work.

HD adding at $265

I am still researching UNPs earnings. I am trying calculate a good entry price.

TSLA scares me a bit because China hasn’t officially responded to America trying to gut their chip supply, and a lot of people think the response will be in the area of EV batteries. How exposed would Tesla be if battery supplies were cut off?

I feel like so much stuff is off kilter right now. One sudden fire and the bond markets will put a test to the words too big to fail.

Sanrith Descartes · Oct 21, 2022

Furry said:
TSLA scares me a bit because China hasn’t officially responded to America trying to gut their chip supply, and a lot of people think the response will be in the area of EV batteries. How exposed would Tesla be if battery supplies were cut off?

I feel like so much stuff is off kilter right now. One sudden fire and the bond markets will put a test to the words too big to fail.

Im totally with you. But China can be an issue for years to come. At some point that exposure gets priced in and mitigated.

One thing that strikes me with TSLA (and I say this having owned a vehicle OEM), their manufacturing margins are insane. It is such an advantage for them over competitors.

Its chart is hard to really read because of its astronomical moves up. I went $200 based on the options chart.

Zog · Oct 21, 2022

Furry said:
TSLA scares me a bit because China hasn’t officially responded to America trying to gut their chip supply, and a lot of people think the response will be in the area of EV batteries. How exposed would Tesla be if battery supplies were cut off?

I feel like so much stuff is off kilter right now. One sudden fire and the bond markets will put a test to the words too big to fail.

Fed swaps have been open for months and you've already seen the bailout swap for credit suisse with what everyone assumed is a margin call to the tune of almost 9billion, It's already happening, shit is blowing up all over and assuming the fed is just going to choose hyper inflation isn't a great alternative.

The cracks are showing and the fed already has their bucket of quik Crete ready.

While US banks have at least got their shit together, the rest of the world hasn't learned their 2008 lesson.

Sanrith Descartes · Oct 21, 2022

One mistake I think investors make in times like this is to just sit and stop putting cash in. Now I am not saying buying large chunks. But if you dont have a full position of a stock/etf you like then on tests of lows add a few bucks. Historically when the bottom is finally in and some of the horrible news we have dealt with gets resolved we will (in my opinion) see some sharp moves up.

At some point, we will get peace in Ukraine. That is gonna be a parabolic move upwards across the board. Thats one example. Dont miss those moves.

Its why i look for places to add a few bucks on the lows. Like HD, like TSLA, like UNP.

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