Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
- 40,787
- 136,187
It's normal for now though. Feel like we've been talking about 2-3% daily moves for a really long time in this thread.
- 2
Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
- Start date
-
Guest, it's time once again for the massively important and exciting FoH Asshat Tournament!
Go here and give us your nominations!Who's been the biggest Asshat in the last year? Give us your worst ones!
It's normal for now though. Feel like we've been talking about 2-3% daily moves for a really long time in this thread.
Funny you mention UNP, I've been looking at the railroads pretty hard lately, several of them have reduced their share count by 1/3 over the last decade (UNP included).
I've been trying to decide between CSX and UNP. Their economics all look surprisingly close, you have a reason you like UNP in particular? I'm guessing larger size and larger dividend (though on a CF basis CSX could match pretty easily).
- 13,512
- 52,605
For a little bit of that "politics and investing intersect" fury this morning...
Sanrith Descartes
You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
- 45,812
- 126,442
I owned UNP last year and flipped it to take profits off the board when it had a nice spike upwards off of the Covid shipping fiasco. I am patiently waiting to find a reentry
I normally only choose what I think is best in a sector (ie. Coke or Pepsi, not both), and I had chosen UNP so to be honest i havent followed CSX much lately. I do prefer dividends and low debt strong balance sheets as a general guide which ia why i went with UNP originally.
I like sectors to offset my tech heavy portfolio.
Let me add, rails are/were due for a reversion to the mean at some point once ahipping finally truly normalizes. Im not sure yet if the price is there yet. I think its PE is still a bit high. So if you go long in either be cognizant there could be some rough track ahead short/mid term outlook.
Definitely agree on upcoming volatility, especially with how expensive/broken diesel is currently. Once I pick one its basically a hold forever for me though (unless we get a weird railroad bubble or something). Big fan of this type of industry due to necessity and impossibility to enter.
Sanrith Descartes
You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
- 45,812
- 126,442
Agree they have the big moat. Watch the rail union contract issue. This could begin a quick move downward and present a long term opportunity. Biden cant allow them to strike so i would expect a quick resolution if they walk followed by a quick pop when its resolved. Its down below real support and the next stop of any real kind should be around $175-ish. This would give it a PE just above 16. That is probably where I might be looking to get back in. Granted it might not hit that low either.
Sanrith Descartes
You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
- 45,812
- 126,442
Furry
Email Loading Please Wait
- 22,694
- 30,029
Japan has straight up embraced its future as a third world country. At least the EU is pretending to fight.
- 1
Japan is literally dying as a matter of demographics. Their population has been flat/declining since ~2004 and they're xenophobic enough that immigration is extremely difficult. You can't have an economy without new people.
- 1
Zog
Blackwing Lair Raider
- 1,812
- 2,341
Bought some shares of sqqq on Fridays close, dollar was losing ground because of the yen manipulation.
I was assuming the desperate attempt of propping up the yen wouldn't last long.
I'm halfway right but futures are pretty damn green... Still a lot of time before the open but the 4th? fed pivot front running bear rally making me eat shit is most likely the case.
I was assuming the desperate attempt of propping up the yen wouldn't last long.
I'm halfway right but futures are pretty damn green... Still a lot of time before the open but the 4th? fed pivot front running bear rally making me eat shit is most likely the case.
- 1
- 53,129
- 312,372
You can though, this concept of nonstop growth for the sake of nonstop growth to prop up government pyramid schemes is one of the most baffling bullshit ideas people cling to.
- 10
Sanrith Descartes
You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
- 45,812
- 126,442
Sanrith Descartes
You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
- 45,812
- 126,442
I'm not talking about infinite growth. I'm talking about their population not replacing itself. When growth rates drop the average population age increases steadily. If you don't maintain an appropriate faction of people of working age everyone is in for a bad time.
You can call it baffling, but it's historical reality. As a practical matter we've all been borrowing from our futures in a way that is predicated on future populations being larger than they are now. While it's not necessary in the logical sense, the transitions will be ugly and take the better part of a century before they balance out. China is in DEEP shit for similar reasons.
Last edited:
- 1
ToeMissile
Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
- 3,354
- 2,202
There was a section on Japan in freakonimics. Not sure how everyone feels about it, but was pretty interesting.
Sanrith Descartes
You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
- 45,812
- 126,442
Sanrith Descartes
You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
- 45,812
- 126,442
- 53,129
- 312,372
Eventually all bills come due. Japan does have a birth rate issue but so do all developed nations at this point.
Still the point remains a smaller GDP for a smaller population isn't necessarily a bad thing, yet most people fail to ever take that into account.
Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
- 40,787
- 136,187
It's funny people acknowledge that technology can drive GDP, but still cling to population growth as being required.
- 1
Furry
Email Loading Please Wait
- 22,694
- 30,029
I’d rather have a third world ethnostate than well, whatever the fuck were becoming but with the money we won’t have too. Unfortunately it seems I’ll get neither.
- 1