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Blazin

Blazin

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Reading the details of results, biggest ouch I see is the 19% increase in costs YoY coupled with declining rev is just a huge fail. Seems like they have had a complete lack of cost control, and they are guiding for massive spend next year. What they are being paid for ads has declined 18% which they are trying too offset by spamming more ads, increasing them by 17%.

These are concerning cracks forming in their money printing machine.

Kiroy Kiroy we can only hope man, I freaking hate social media if we could get rid of the dumpster fire of Tik Tok things could really start moving in a more healthy direction.
 
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Kiroy

Kiroy

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Blazin said:
Reading the details of results, biggest ouch I see is the 19% increase in costs YoY coupled with declining rev is just a huge fail. Seems like they have had a complete lack of cost control, and they are guiding for massive spend next year. What they are being paid for ads has declined 18% which they are trying too offset by spamming more ads, increasing them by 17%.

These are concerning cracks forming in their money printing machine.

Kiroy Kiroy we can only hope man, I freaking hate social media if we could get rid of the dumpster fire of Tik Tok things could really start moving in a more healthy direction.
Click to expand...

interestingly with tiktok, it's actually far superior than youtube to find a quick video for say, how to convert your gas range from natural to propane, notching wood groves, or the proper way to splice wire, it's all the other shit that ruins it

in my fantasy world this stuff still exists but is near purely informative vs performative, and with the way youth and counter culture works I hope they can overcome their brave new world corporate overlords (not easy when your 1984 governments are working with them)
 
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Mist

Mist

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People are going to stop using social media and go back to what exactly? TV? Radio? Telegrams? Nothing ever goes backwards, especially communication mediums.

There will just be yet another iteration of this shit, and another after that, and so on.

The only hope is that the profitability of social media goes into the toilet and the barrier-to-entry of building new platforms continues to drop, so you end up with a proliferation of cheap platforms (potentially interconnected/interoperable ones) without so much centralized content aggregation. But it'll still be the same handful of ad companies running everything; since the invention of media, nobody has ever beat the ad-men at their game.

No matter how much social media disgusts basically all of us, it's still better than 3 TV channels dictating everything you see and know, and "influencers" are still better than "AS SEEN ON TV" ads.
 
Sanrith Descartes

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Blazin said:
Reading the details of results, biggest ouch I see is the 19% increase in costs YoY coupled with declining rev is just a huge fail. Seems like they have had a complete lack of cost control, and they are guiding for massive spend next year. What they are being paid for ads has declined 18% which they are trying too offset by spamming more ads, increasing them by 17%.

These are concerning cracks forming in their money printing machine.

Kiroy Kiroy we can only hope man, I freaking hate social media if we could get rid of the dumpster fire of Tik Tok things could really start moving in a more healthy direction.
Click to expand...
This is the number one issue with Big Tech (and little tech). These fuckers start out funded by VC and ignore costs and then they get big and print money and they comtinue to ignore costs. Activist investors are stepping up and telling Zuck enough is enough and to get a handle on the WeWork like lifestyle for employees.

Their subscriber numbers growing is the good I saw. I am lucky in the sense that my major position is FTEC so it has no Comm sector stocks. It is allowing me to focus my positions in GOOGL and META without worry of them also being in FTEC. I have flipped FB a few times so my position is built with house money which gives me a little less stress.

I could be totally wrong on this but I see potential with the Metaverse if they control the spending and don't fuck it up. Friend's husband is in his 40's and on his VR quest goggle thing an hour or more a day. He does it not as a "gamer" but for the cardio. He has legit dropped 20 pounds in about 3 months using it. Finishes totally drenched in sweat.

Im willing to ride it out and see where it goes. I accept that shit is fucked up globally right now and see this having the potential to recover well as the economy recovers. Eventually.

Or not. Shrug. I cant be 100% risk averse.
 
Furry

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Friend's husband is in his 40's and on his VR quest goggle thing an hour or more a day. He does it not as a "gamer" but for the cardio. He has legit dropped 20 pounds in about 3 months using it. Finishes totally drenched in sweat.
Click to expand...
Why are you in his house watching him exercise for an hour plus?
 
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Kiroy

Kiroy

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Mist said:
People are going to stop using social media and go back to what exactly? TV? Radio? Telegrams? Nothing ever goes backwards, especially communication mediums.

There will just be yet another iteration of this shit, and another after that, and so on.
Click to expand...

I think we can go forward to an iteration that's a lot healthier and useful, and I think we will.
 
Mist

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To bring this back to investing: humans are addicted to status games. Whomever invents the best status game will profit.

TikTok is currently the best status game in town, unless you're an establishment literati wordcel, then it's Twitter.

If Meta is able to invent a better status game in the metaverse, it will profit, but it's very unlikely.

The next big thing is likely something no one has even heard of yet. Maybe the next big status game will be virtual, or maybe it'll swing back around to something more tangible. If a big unemployment wave hits at some point, the next big status game might be 'holding onto your fucking job.'
 
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C

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Mist said:
To bring this back to investing: humans are addicted to status games. Whomever invents the best status game will profit.
Click to expand...
My wife puts in an extra 2-3 runs a week so that she can keep winning some kind of exercise bingo group she belongs to through fitbit, which has sold her at least one upgrade as a result. Seems goofy, but it can work if channeled properly.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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MA with the double beat so both of the big two (V and MA) beat on earnings and saw revenue growth for the quarter.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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META overnight low looks like it hit $98 around 8am.

edit: my thoughts on what Zuck is going to do. They have $16.5b in cash on the books and $48.5 cash and short term equivalents. They have $17.5b in free cash flow. I expect Zuck to announce a gigantor stock buy back when the blackout period ends in a couple of weeks. I fully expect him to put that cash to work to shore up the stock price. At least that is what a competent person would do.

edit 2: filled out my META position at $99.75
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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"unexpectedly".

1666875801054.png
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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First week in 9 that I didn't sell weekly puts, I had an order in monday morning that I cancelled (would have filled too) because I couldn't stay at PC. Been a crazy week doing projects on farm. I do have some orders in this morning for Oct 31 exp. Right now I'm not willing to sell anything on the other side of Powell next week. Had a really good Oct ready to start clawing away at November.

Things I'm liking about rally:
- Yields finally moving down
- Vix giving up 30 level
- Nice performance by small caps
- recapture of 200wk moving averages for QQQ and IWM
- SPX/SPY bouncing off 200wk

Will be watching how we close this weekly candle, unlike during bull market dips, I'm less concerned about catching a bottom than I am about capital preservation. I will switch to a more aggressive long position if the weight of the evidence tells me to, and while things are improving chart wise we aren't there yet to call it sustainable. We have seen how quickly bear market rallies can fall apart.

FOr bull run to continue:
- want to see Vix drop below ~22
- TLT above 100
- Semi's and small caps need to outperform

We are probably two weeks out yet for the moving averages particularly of tech to get into a better position with 20d moving above the 50d and really I would like to see the 50d be curling up. Hurdle after that would be the 200d.

One day at a time, we are a month out from some real challenges/hurdles for a sustainable rally, when we all know this could go to shit mid next week in a blink of an eye.

My gut read is that it's still not over, but I'm certainly ready to move off that if price is showing otherwise.
 
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ShakyJake

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This is the weekly chart of SPY:

spy.jpg

To me, this looks like nothing more than a pull back before another drop. Nothing here suggests a change in trend.
 
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Jysin

Jysin

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The macro shitshow is never going to end at this point:

China Foreign Min Wang Yi: Any attempt to block China and Russia 'moving forward' will never succeed; China is willing to deepen relationship with Russia on all levels
 
Wingz

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Been hearing about the "Kinder and Gentler" fed. Canada only did 50 bp up.

The Core PCE on Friday comes out...will the Fed go with 50 if Core PCE isn't that bad?

If the Core PCE isn't bad the market will probably rally thinking the fed will go...oh gee..we can be kinder and gentler and just a 50 bp increase instead of 75.
 
Sanrith Descartes

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Jysin said:
The macro shitshow is never going to end at this point:

China Foreign Min Wang Yi: Any attempt to block China and Russia 'moving forward' will never succeed; China is willing to deepen relationship with Russia on all levels
Click to expand...
Im sure this one is bullish...

 
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