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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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For those following my SPIR play, i sold half my position (1000 shares) today. Earnings are coming up in less than two weeks. These shares I had added down around $1.00 so I was up about 40% on this tranche. I banked that profit and cut my exposure by a good chunk.

My plan is to react to earnings/Fed decision. If bad news hits and it tanks again i will circle right back in now that I have seen a bottom. If it runs higher then I still have a thousand shares to ride up.
 
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Jysin

Jysin

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Huge gap down on yields. (Great for market strength)

Thanks Cramer!
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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I read an article yesterday saying the S&P is bearish below 3900, there is a deadzone between 3900 - 3950 and that above 3950 lots and lots of bear CTA's go bullish. If true we could see a rip higher in about 25 points.
 
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Jysin

Jysin

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Sanrith Descartes said:
I read an article yesterday saying the S&P is bearish below 3900, there is a deadzone between 3900 - 3950 and that above 3950 lots and lots of bear CTA's go bullish. If true we could see a rip higher in about 25 points.
Click to expand...
It's all about the Fed.

Here is the JPM playbook for the week:

  • 50 basis point hike, with a dovish press conference: “It is difficult to conceive of a scenario where this outcome occurs given inflation levels and a tight labor market,” the team wrote. “Should this outcome occur, the immediate reaction could produce a double-digit one-day return for equities.” S&P 500 up 10% to 12%
  • 50 basis point hike and a hawkish press conference: An outcome that could stem from a Fed that is increasingly concerned about financial stabilities as it balances growth and inflation. S&P 500 up 4% to 5%
  • 75 basis point hike and a dovish press conference: A scenario viewed as having the second-highest probability of playing out. “If you saw the Fed give explicit guidance for the December meeting, then that is likely viewed as a dovish outcome.” S&P 500 up 2.5% to 3%
  • 75 basis point hike and a hawkish press conference: “This is the most likely outcome with Powell retaining optionality for December and 2023 meetings while emphasizing the current risks to inflation moving higher.” The team also views this as the outcome most expected by bond markets, so says there may not be a significant move in yields that keeps equities from melting down. S&P 500 down 1% to up 0.5%
  • 100 basis point hike and a dovish press conference: While this is seen as unlikely as a 50 basis point hike, it may mean the Fed both wants a higher terminal rate and wants to complete the tightening cycle this year. “Separately, the market may digest this move as the Fed having prior knowledge of where next week’s CPI prints.” S&P 500 down 4% to 5%
  • 100 basis point hike and a hawkish press conference: Considered the best outcome for equity bears waiting for this latest rally to dissipate. “Here this would seem to be a Fed reassessing its own inflation forecasts, which some investors feel is too optimistic.” S&P falls 6% to 8%, likely resting year-to-date lows
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Jysin said:
It's all about the Fed.

Here is the JPM playbook for the week:

  • 50 basis point hike, with a dovish press conference: “It is difficult to conceive of a scenario where this outcome occurs given inflation levels and a tight labor market,” the team wrote. “Should this outcome occur, the immediate reaction could produce a double-digit one-day return for equities.” S&P 500 up 10% to 12%
  • 50 basis point hike and a hawkish press conference: An outcome that could stem from a Fed that is increasingly concerned about financial stabilities as it balances growth and inflation. S&P 500 up 4% to 5%
  • 75 basis point hike and a dovish press conference: A scenario viewed as having the second-highest probability of playing out. “If you saw the Fed give explicit guidance for the December meeting, then that is likely viewed as a dovish outcome.” S&P 500 up 2.5% to 3%
  • 75 basis point hike and a hawkish press conference: “This is the most likely outcome with Powell retaining optionality for December and 2023 meetings while emphasizing the current risks to inflation moving higher.” The team also views this as the outcome most expected by bond markets, so says there may not be a significant move in yields that keeps equities from melting down. S&P 500 down 1% to up 0.5%
  • 100 basis point hike and a dovish press conference: While this is seen as unlikely as a 50 basis point hike, it may mean the Fed both wants a higher terminal rate and wants to complete the tightening cycle this year. “Separately, the market may digest this move as the Fed having prior knowledge of where next week’s CPI prints.” S&P 500 down 4% to 5%
  • 100 basis point hike and a hawkish press conference: Considered the best outcome for equity bears waiting for this latest rally to dissipate. “Here this would seem to be a Fed reassessing its own inflation forecasts, which some investors feel is too optimistic.” S&P falls 6% to 8%, likely resting year-to-date lows
Click to expand...
What are the odds that the WH has been begging JP to go with a 50 point raise so the markets rip a few days before the midterm election?
 
Gravel

Gravel

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Sanrith Descartes said:
I read an article yesterday saying the S&P is bearish below 3900, there is a deadzone between 3900 - 3950 and that above 3950 lots and lots of bear CTA's go bullish. If true we could see a rip higher in about 25 points.
Click to expand...
I hate ZipTrader on YouTube (he's a sensationalist for clicks, like they all are), but he has some charts of where the institutional buy targets are, and it was at 3955. Don't know where the data comes from though.

Untitled.png
 
Jysin

Jysin

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October PMI print showing expansion vs contraction.

09:45 *(US) OCT FINAL S&P/MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 50.4 V 49.9E (avoids contraction but lowest since June 2020)
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Jysin said:
October PMI print showing expansion vs contraction.

09:45 *(US) OCT FINAL S&P/MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 50.4 V 49.9E (avoids contraction but lowest since June 2020)
Click to expand...
There goes that 50 basis point raise out the window
 
OU Ariakas

OU Ariakas

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Here is an update on an underperforming stock, ET, I talked about two years ago that cut their dividend and it looked like I was going to have to take a loss even thought I wanted to hold until break even. Well they have increased their dividend the last 2 quarters and all signs point to it being fully restored by next February. Ironically, I was so sure that they were a total dog that I did not reinvest the dividends but if you look at the chart below one of the only reasons I have recovered the full amount is because I bought some dips. There was a point in between the posts below and now that the stock was in $4 territory and I didn't buy that dip because I am not a rational investor. Now that global energy is screwed this looks like it may be a hold again. All of this is to point out that I got super lucky that a.) this stock has dividends because that was not on our mind when we bought it in 2014/2014, and b.) international oil/gas going to shit saved my ass. TLDR; fully investigate single company stocks before making a purchase that you consider big. For reference, the original purchase of the stock was 20k (the 1078 shares at $18.5434) and the two additional purchases were made with dividends from the same account.

1667311499731.png


OU Ariakas said:
I am in the same boat with ET, but get this shit. I bought 20k into Sunoco Logistics (SXL) about 5 years ago at around $23 a share because it was my wife's company and it was coming out of a nadir on top having an 8% dividend. Well, SXL is owned by Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) which owned the Dakota Access Pipeline. That pipeline is the one that was in the news a few years ago because of all the native protests and Obama court blockages. Well that fucking pipe construction fell a year behind and tanked ETP's numbers; so to stabilize the parent company the bout SXL out at a 'premium'. It fucking tanked the stock but we held on because now the dividend was like 13% and by that time the pipeline was cleared and going to start producing. Plus we had nothing better to do with the money. Well, 2 years ago Energy Transfer (ET) decided that it was time to end the partnership part of the business because Trump's regulations made the tax benefits better if the company was bigger so they subsumed my ETP and now I own ET. Once again the price dropped and this fucking dog is at around $12.50 a share with about a 10% dividend which makes it worse than what I bought all those years ago. Ironically, with all the dividends I am even at $13 so I am leaving it in to collect the dividend and take it out later this year to put towards something worthwhile.
Click to expand...

Sanrith Descartes said:
That blows. One the realities I faced as an individual investor is that there are so many moving parts to an investment you will probably never calculate for them all. I can scour balance sheets and income statements but the truth is there is always an element of assymentrical information that no matter how much the SEC tries to eliminate, it will always be there.

I would ask if you have checked out the company's cash flows. Is the dividend safe in terms of the company being able to sustain it with ample cash left over? If not are they taking on debt to fund it?
Click to expand...
 
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Jysin

Jysin

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JOLTs data just came in higher vs expected. This pulled us down quite a bit, as its a key metric the Fed is tracking.

(More hiring vs expected means companies still actively hiring which drives inflation. aka: Fed can't really back off just yet)

10:00 *(US) SEPT JOLTS JOB OPENINGS: 10.717M V 9.750ME
- Quits rate 2.7% v 2.7% prior
- Prior Jolts revised higher from 10.05M to 10.28M
 
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Mist

Mist

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Jysin said:
JOLTs data just came in higher vs expected. This pulled us down quite a bit, as its a key metric the Fed is tracking.

(More hiring vs expected means companies still actively hiring which drives inflation. aka: Fed can't really back off just yet)

10:00 *(US) SEPT JOLTS JOB OPENINGS: 10.717M V 9.750ME
- Quits rate 2.7% v 2.7% prior
- Prior Jolts revised higher from 10.05M to 10.28M
Click to expand...
FFFF time to sell my SPY I guess.

EDIT: Not doing it yet. Gotta channel my inner inverse Cramer.
 
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