Investing General Discussion

  • Guest, it's time once again for the massively important and exciting FoH Asshat Tournament!



    Go here and give us your nominations!
    Who's been the biggest Asshat in the last year? Give us your worst ones!

Il_Duce Lightning Lord Rule

Lightning Fast
<Charitable Administrator>
11,131
59,501
There is no one reason. Lots of variables in play. My thoughts:
Central banks are starting to blink with rate hikes. This turns all eyes to Janet Powell.
Dollar finally starting to take a breather.
Share buyback blackout period ending.
Money flowing into AAPL (121m shares traded up 8%) who is now carrying the indexes.
After earnings fiascos early in the week some shorts got caught expecting AAPL to tank so we have some short covering on a Friday.
VIX down to 26
SPY 100 DMA beginning to show some signs of flattening.
Letter from Liberal Dems to WH telling him to talk peace with Russia.
10-yr yield has dropped from 4.2% to 4.0% in the last 5 days.
I think this one -fucking over a bunch of shorts- is a big part of it. But that's the conspiratorial side of me. I tend to agree more with Blazin Blazin 's theory of sentimental market drivers over that when I look at things more rationally.
 
  • 1Like
Reactions: 1 user

Mist

REEEEeyore
<Gold Donor>
31,654
24,293
There is no one reason. Lots of variables in play. My thoughts:
Central banks are starting to blink with rate hikes. This turns all eyes to Janet Powell.
Dollar finally starting to take a breather.
Share buyback blackout period ending.

Money flowing into AAPL (121m shares traded up 8%) who is now carrying the indexes.
After earnings fiascos early in the week some shorts got caught expecting AAPL to tank so we have some short covering on a Friday.
VIX down to 26
SPY 100 DMA beginning to show some signs of flattening.
Letter from Liberal Dems to WH telling him to talk peace with Russia.
10-yr yield has dropped from 4.2% to 4.0% in the last 5 days.
Bolded the 3 that are most significant.

Also: consumer spending still holding up. Good GDP numbers. The feeling that we've hit the bottom of the bad news trough, even if there's obviously going to be good and bad news going forward.

But the huge thing on the horizon is housing crash if mortgage rates remain this high, and that can/will take down everything else if someone doesn't do something to intervene.
 
  • 1Like
Reactions: 1 user

Sanrith Descartes

You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
<Gold Donor>
45,811
126,433
Only 9 more days like today and my SPIR play is back to zero :trollface:

View attachment 439813
Getting close enough to smell zero :p
1666988275586.png
 
  • 1Like
  • 1Mother of God
  • 1Worf
Reactions: 2 users

Arden

Blackwing Lair Raider
2,824
2,120
I know this probably isn't the thread for it, but this is where all the big brain finance people hang out so I'm going to post in anyway 😁. Plus it does have relevance to equities, if peripherally.

May be getting a job offer from SpaceX in the near future. Not a sure thing but I need to start contemplating my options now before the offer.

Everyone knows they work you hard and pay under what many other cutting edge firms pay. Their answer to that is they give significant (I think) stock options. They don't vest for 5 years and a lot of people don't make it 5 years with SpaceX (but some obv do).

I've never had a job with stock options and I honestly don't know a ton about it. I also know that working for elon can be super volatile but also super lucrative and possibly rewarding. Anyone have thoughts?
 
  • 1Like
Reactions: 1 user

Arden

Blackwing Lair Raider
2,824
2,120
Depending on how accurate a statement this is, you should see everything through this lens.

Well, I honestly don't have actual numbers. I doubt anyone does. Trolling glassdoor and job boards makes it seem like there's a ton of attrition, but you know how that goes: the people who left on bad terms are the most likely to post. The ones still working there keep their mouths shut.

It seems like it would be an awesome resume booster even to work there a few years, but it wouldn't be worth it if I lost my stock options. Not sure how the buyback thing works or if that gives me another option short term
 

OU Ariakas

Diet Dr. Pepper Enjoyer
<Silver Donator>
7,559
21,674
Well, I honestly don't have actual numbers. I doubt anyone does. Trolling glassdoor and job boards makes it seem like there's a ton of attrition, but you know how that goes: the people who left on bad terms are the most likely to post. The ones still working there keep their mouths shut.

It seems like it would be an awesome resume booster even to work there a few years, but it wouldn't be worth it if I lost my stock options. Not sure how the buyback thing works or if that gives me another option short term

Most companies do not have an all-or-nothing vesting period; usually you are given stock every year that takes five years to fully vest. The most common 5 year vesting number is 20% of it vests per year meaning after 3 years you would have 60% or so of it vested. You should ask that question up front and make sure you are satisfied with the answer, especially if it is a large chunk of the all-in compensation number. It is also worth asking what the option price is based on (flat dollar amount, number of shares at current price, etc).
 
  • 2Like
Reactions: 1 users

Arden

Blackwing Lair Raider
2,824
2,120
Most companies do not have an all-or-nothing vesting period; usually you are given stock every year that takes five years to fully vest. The most common 5 year vesting number is 20% of it vests per year meaning after 3 years you would have 60% or so of it vested. You should ask that question up front and make sure you are satisfied with the answer, especially if it is a large chunk of the all-in compensation number. It is also worth asking what the option price is based on (flat dollar amount, number of shares at current price, etc).

Thanks, these are the kind of questions I need to know to ask. Their stock options seem like a pretty large portion of the compensation package. Seems like 30% in most cases.
 

Tmac

Adventurer
<Aristocrat╭ರ_•́>
10,125
17,324
Well, I honestly don't have actual numbers. I doubt anyone does. Trolling glassdoor and job boards makes it seem like there's a ton of attrition, but you know how that goes: the people who left on bad terms are the most likely to post. The ones still working there keep their mouths shut.

It seems like it would be an awesome resume booster even to work there a few years, but it wouldn't be worth it if I lost my stock options. Not sure how the buyback thing works or if that gives me another option short term

Be prepared with a list of questions to ask them. Just ask them what their attrition rate is.
 
  • 1Like
Reactions: 1 user

OU Ariakas

Diet Dr. Pepper Enjoyer
<Silver Donator>
7,559
21,674
So here is the good thing: it is a private company which means they will say something like $40,000 in stock options a year with a strike price of $4 per share. The biggest risk is that they never go public and you just don't ever get to sell those shares. This, however, is an Elon Musk company and they will go public at some point. Then your hope is that the IPO price is something like 8 or 10 dollars so that you buy your shares for 4 and immediately sell them for that new, higher price. There is always the risk that the IPO is at $2 and you either take the loss or hold them until they are profitable.

Edit: It looks like it is worth around $56/share after an internal 10-1 split. Use that information in the bargaining process and see if you can get a strike price under $56/share.
 
  • 1Like
Reactions: 1 user

Sanrith Descartes

You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
<Gold Donor>
45,811
126,433
I know this probably isn't the thread for it, but this is where all the big brain finance people hang out so I'm going to post in anyway 😁. Plus it does have relevance to equities, if peripherally.

May be getting a job offer from SpaceX in the near future. Not a sure thing but I need to start contemplating my options now before the offer.

Everyone knows they work you hard and pay under what many other cutting edge firms pay. Their answer to that is they give significant (I think) stock options. They don't vest for 5 years and a lot of people don't make it 5 years with SpaceX (but some obv do).

I've never had a job with stock options and I honestly don't know a ton about it. I also know that working for elon can be super volatile but also super lucrative and possibly rewarding. Anyone have thoughts?
This is currently being discussed in /poll by tech folks who get this type of comp. Might want to bounce over there and ask.
 
  • 1Like
Reactions: 1 user

Captain Suave

Caesar si viveret, ad remum dareris.
5,446
9,305
I know this probably isn't the thread for it, but this is where all the big brain finance people hang out so I'm going to post in anyway 😁. Plus it does have relevance to equities, if peripherally.

May be getting a job offer from SpaceX in the near future. Not a sure thing but I need to start contemplating my options now before the offer.

Everyone knows they work you hard and pay under what many other cutting edge firms pay. Their answer to that is they give significant (I think) stock options. They don't vest for 5 years and a lot of people don't make it 5 years with SpaceX (but some obv do).

I've never had a job with stock options and I honestly don't know a ton about it. I also know that working for elon can be super volatile but also super lucrative and possibly rewarding. Anyone have thoughts?
My cousin has worked at SpaceX for ~10 years now (edit: mostly programming/modeling for flight control systems). If you have any specific questions I can try to get an answer for you. Feel free to PM.
 

Arden

Blackwing Lair Raider
2,824
2,120
My cousin has worked at SpaceX for ~10 years now. If you have any specific questions I can try to get an answer for you. Feel free to PM.

Honestly just trying to get a general read if anyone had solid info on working at SpaceX. It's hard to filter through the bullshit on the nets.

Any idea where he is located? I'd be in Hawthorne CA at HQ.
 

Captain Suave

Caesar si viveret, ad remum dareris.
5,446
9,305
Honestly just trying to get a general read if anyone had solid info on working at SpaceX. It's hard to filter through the bullshit on the nets.

Any idea where he is located? I'd be in Hawthorne CA at HQ.
Taking this to PMs to not pollute forum.
 

Mist

REEEEeyore
<Gold Donor>
31,654
24,293
Really wishing I had sold my SPY going into the close, there's no way this can hold up next week without retreating a bit.
 

Gravel

Mr. Poopybutthole
40,777
136,114
Really wishing I had sold my SPY going into the close, there's no way this can hold up next week without retreating a bit.
Yep, I think the real question is, is this a full on bull trap and we fall a ton, or will it just be a consolidation as we march back up. I think it's unlikely we end next week above today's close.
 
  • 1Diamond Hands
Reactions: 1 user