Investing General Discussion

Sanrith Descartes · Dec 30, 2022

Assuming I make no trades today, this is how I made out for the year on closed positions. Overall a +12.45%. Eating PYPL was ugly and it alone dropped my profit from 20% to 12%. It was my one major mistake for the year. With the market ugliness I didnt get greedy and took profits when I saw them. I did my best to cut losers short if I felt the trade was bad.

I ended up with a small net loss for the year in options (due entirely to MTTR puts in the spring). Excluding MTTR my options plays were in the green for 2022. My early put plays were rocky as the extent of the market downturn was unknown, and after I adjusted to a strategy for a strict bear market (further out of the money and lower premiums) I was green on almost all the rest of my puts.

Over the last few months I have been adding on lows and trimmed my cash position down to 8%

Tmac · Dec 30, 2022

I stopped looking at my portfolio two months ago. Just waiting for my divorce to finalize so I can dump my SEP and whatevers left over money into the QQQ.

Jysin · Dec 30, 2022

10:42 (US) Market Trading Hours Summary: 2022 looking to go out on a predictably sour note

Summary: Equities reverted to their downward trend after yesterday's short lived Santa Claus rally, with the S&P on track for a roughly 20% decline in 2022, its worst annual performance since 2008. European indices are also down, led lower by the telecom and energy sectors. Crude is trading a bit higher while metals are lower this morning. Treasury yields are higher across the curve ahead of the early close for bond markets.

Jysin · Dec 30, 2022

$5B buy side moc in the last 10mins before close.

Gravel · Dec 30, 2022

Jysin said:
$5B buy side moc in the last 10mins before close.

That was super bizarre.

Zzen · Dec 30, 2022

Gravel said:
That was super bizarre.

Mist · Dec 30, 2022

Jysin said:
$5B buy side moc in the last 10mins before close.

Buying shit while it's still on sale.

ShakyJake · Dec 30, 2022

Well, I'm just thankful I didn't completely blow my account up. Right now, it seems like trying to trade options is nigh impossible in this environment. Or my strategy sucks balls.

Sanrith Descartes · Dec 30, 2022

ShakyJake said:
Well, I'm just thankful I didn't completely blow my account up. Right now, it seems like trying to trade options is nigh impossible in this environment. Or my strategy sucks balls.

This market is good for options. You just need to devise a strat to operate in the market that is being given to us. Its functioning within a lane and that can be used to your advantage with options.

All that being said, don't be afraid to bail out of an option trade early and either cut a loss short or take a small profit if things go sideways.

ShakyJake · Dec 30, 2022

Sanrith Descartes said:
This market is good for options. You just need to devise a strat to operate in the market that is being given to us. Its functioning within a lane and that can be used to your advantage with options.

All that being said, don't be afraid to bail out of an option trade early and either cut a loss short or take a small profit if things go sideways.

I like trading the daily chart and my strategy has been this: I wait for a breakout candle after a period of consolidation. I'll then buy a CALL or PUT option depending on the anticipated direction of the move. The problem I'm having is that we're constantly gapping up or down every day at open. Which is just murdering me. I've come to the conclusion that I simply cannot hang onto an option for more than a day without massive risk. Prior to 2022 the market was fairly smooth but now we're constantly slamming up and down.

Sanrith Descartes · Dec 30, 2022

ShakyJake said:
I like trading the daily chart and my strategy has been this: I wait for a breakout candle after a period of consolidation. I'll then buy a CALL or PUT option depending on the anticipated direction of the move. The problem I'm having is that we're constantly gapping up or down every day at open. Which is just murdering me. I've come to the conclusion that I simply cannot hang onto an option for more than a day without massive risk. Prior to 2022 the market was fairly smooth but now we're constantly slamming up and down.

You run a totally different strategy than I do. I trade the monthly expiry and only write puts on stocks I'm willing to own. I go way out of the money and use a two year backtest on the strikes (when available). I don't trade anything greater than 20% chance of assignment. I watch them and if we get a day or two of green I look to buy-to-close once I hit 50% profit or greater.

I'm also selling covered calls on low beta value stocks (INTC and T). Same strat but not so far out of the money since I don't care if I lose them. I am also conscious of the approaching date of their earnings release.

Ps.. I'm not making high premium, but it's risk vs reward and I'm running low risk.

Sanrith Descartes · Dec 31, 2022

My PLTR puts closed out at the bell. I had originally sold them at .20 and then doubled down and wrote more at .40 when the stock price dipped under $6 so my cost basis was .30. Bought to close at .20 for a 50% gain. I had 3 different orders to buy more of the actual stock this week but none of them filled.

Sanrith Descartes · Jan 2, 2023

TSLA gonna be interesting to watch tomorrow. They blew out last year's deliveries and production (30%+ increase yoy from last year) but missed analysts delivery estimate by about 20k cars.

Tesla reports record quarterly deliveries but misses estimates

(Reuters) -Tesla Inc said quarterly deliveries fell short of market estimates on Monday, held back by ongoing logistical issues and growing demand concerns that rounded off a tumultuous 2022 for the Elon Musk-led firm. Tesla delivered 405,278 vehicles in the fourth quarter ended Dec. 31, short...

finance.yahoo.com

Sanrith Descartes · Jan 2, 2023

Futures open mildly green.

Jysin · Jan 2, 2023

Sanrith Descartes said:
TSLA gonna be interesting to watch tomorrow. They blew out last year's deliveries and production (30%+ increase yoy from last year) but missed analysts delivery estimate by about 20k cars.

Tesla reports record quarterly deliveries but misses estimates

(Reuters) -Tesla Inc said quarterly deliveries fell short of market estimates on Monday, held back by ongoing logistical issues and growing demand concerns that rounded off a tumultuous 2022 for the Elon Musk-led firm. Tesla delivered 405,278 vehicles in the fourth quarter ended Dec. 31, short...

finance.yahoo.com

Tesla’s own goal was 50% yoy increase, so missed that by a wide margin as well as missing analyst estimates.

Coin flip my opinion on how the stock may react to that tomorrow. I think the last leg down day Tesla had was when they announced price cuts for those taking delivery by year end. Most read into that as them missing their estimates and the stock sold off on that already. So, this may be baked in already.
Who knows??

Sanrith Descartes · Jan 2, 2023

Jysin said:
Tesla’s own goal was 50% yoy increase, so missed that by a wide margin as well as missing analyst estimates.

Coin flip my opinion on how the stock may react to that tomorrow. I think the last leg down day Tesla had was when they announced price cuts for those taking delivery by year end. Most read into that as them missing their estimates and the stock sold off on that already. So, this may be baked in already.
Who knows??

I watch their US inventory pretty regularly on the aggregator sites and they are looking good with the M3 and MY. They have shit loads of inventory building of MS and MX and that is the real concern for me. 6% interest rates on a $135k car is pricing out the plebes.

I expect them to do well on the MY/M3 inventory now that the $7500 tax credit is back on the table and the gubmint pushed out the built in the USA requirements until March.

Rais · Jan 2, 2023

Drops 10%. Nothing had been baked in the past 2 years. Bad news came out stocks went up. Good news came out stocks went down. The state media will ride Elons nuts hard and the negative news will feed on itself.

Blazin · Jan 3, 2023

Sold 600 shares of qqq this morning at $270. So far looking well timed, had order open to sell calls instead and just wasn’t liking setup and quickly switched to a limit sell. Fun start to the year.

Jysin · Jan 3, 2023

$AAPL getting beaten up on news of slowing some orders with their vendors.

Couple this with repeated news of poor iPhone demand, skipping new MacBook rollout Q4 entirely, this can set up for a really ugly Q4 earnings report.

Due to its index weighting, this is definitely a name to keep an eye on.

09:21 [AAPL] Reportedly Apple has asked some suppliers for fewer Airpod and Watch components - Nikkei
Reminder: On Jan 2nd Said to have asked several suppliers to build fewer components for AirPods, Apple Watch and MacBooks for Q1 2023 amid weakening demand - Nikkei

Blazin · Jan 3, 2023

Jysin said:
$AAPL getting beaten up on news of slowing some orders with their vendors.

Couple this with repeated news of poor iPhone demand, skipping new MacBook rollout Q4 entirely, this can set up for a really ugly Q4 earnings report.

Due to its index weighting, this is definitely a name to keep an eye on.

09:21 [AAPL] Reportedly Apple has asked some suppliers for fewer Airpod and Watch components - Nikkei
Reminder: On Jan 2nd Said to have asked several suppliers to build fewer components for AirPods, Apple Watch and MacBooks for Q1 2023 amid weakening demand - Nikkei

I will be buying in the 80s but I still think that’s a pretty outside shot right now. I wouldn’t fault anyone for nibbling sub 120.

everyone should be rooting for some apple capitulation because it’s needed part of ending this down trend

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