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Mist

Mist

REEEEeyore
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Blazin said:
Just went and looked at every bear market since 1966 looking for the biggest "fake outs" time that the chart was improving to this extent but the lows not being in.

So here we have a pretty ugly decline and the market has shot up off a low and recaptured the 200d. Would be singing a very similar tune to now, this chart is sending signals that the bottom might be in.
View attachment 454854

Here is what happened next...
View attachment 454855

So notice the time above the 200d was short lived and the 200d never flattened and turned up. This is what we are looking for, usually marked by a back test of the 200d that hold this often occurs right around the time it would be curling up.
Click to expand...
What year was this?

NM I'm stupid and couldn't see the numbers in the background.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Since we are discussing earnings week...

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Next week is the rest of the biguns (AAPL, GOOGL, META etc)
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Blazin Blazin you think we are seeing some short covering, money on the sidelines trying to jump in ahead of earnings or just "who the fuck knows".
 
Mist

Mist

REEEEeyore
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Tech companies generally churn 3-5% of their employees every year due to stack ranking, or some other process that they don't call stack ranking that's still stack ranking.

For 3+ years they didn't do this, mostly because of COVID, and actually kept hiring.

So when you see these layoff numbers you kinda have to take into account that these companies are 3+ years overdue for regularly scheduled housekeeping.
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Blazin Blazin you think we are seeing some short covering, money on the sidelines trying to jump in ahead of earnings or just "who the fuck knows".
Click to expand...
I try not to read too much into who/why of movements as it can reinforce incorrect assumptions. Markets goes up on X! Hey wait why is market now going down on X. Maybe X never had anything to do with it.

But to entertain the idea at least from a macro level market participants do not believe an earnings recession is imminent. Market participants do not believe that rate hikes are going to cause a credit squeeze. Market participants do not believe the Fed is going to raise rates as high as they have forecasted.

That's the current back drop, as always it's easy for us to imagine bad scenarios while sometimes we are closed off to better than expected outcomes. Us here in this thread we love to hate the Fed, therefor it's hard for us imagine scenarios where they don't fuck this up.

Now many might read that and say, "no way people are super worried about those things", and those are people sitting in cash and their opinion is irrelevant. People in cash wanting a crash doesn't somehow create further decline. People holding stocks and no longer wanting to hold them results in declines. Declines often exhaust themselves because the fearful leave the market , that doesn't mean the fearful turn bullish just that they have already sold.

If a new bull market begins it will feed on those fearful having to over time capitulate and buy. Bull markets climb a wall of worry, until there is no worry left and then the process repeats.
 
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Mist

Mist

REEEEeyore
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I'm up 23% on my META position. Who thinks locking in those gains is a good idea?
 
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Blazin

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Mist said:
I'm up 23% on my META position. Who thinks locking in those gains is a good idea?
Click to expand...
~$154 is going to be a difficult area. Nothing on the daily chart says sell, but a drop to 128 would also mean little but if it did that and you would feel like you made a mistake not selling then maybe that's your answer.
 
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Mist

Mist

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Im holding it because I think it still has legs to run. Maybe sell half and bank some profits?
Click to expand...
It's not a very large position anyway, I'll probably just let it run.
Blazin said:
~$154 is going to be a difficult area. Nothing on the daily chart says sell, but a drop to 128 would also mean little but if it did that and you would feel like you made a mistake not selling then maybe that's your answer.
Click to expand...
It would not bother me if it dropped to 128.
 
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