Investing General Discussion

Jysin said:

In unrelated news, water is wet.

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Sometimes we over do it with calling literally everything rigged BS, but this is one of those things that isn't hyperbole. I think it's hard to fully quantify if the benefits of a less controlled system outweighing the negative of the people who take advantage. It certainly feels like that we are too much on the side of laissez faire with capital markets in some areas (like insider trading, carried interest, etc. ) while being onerous in others. Congress is full of this type behavior so obviously there is little legislative motive to pursue this, enforcement is used as a political weapon when expedient. Meanwhile I spend way too much time worrying about every little tax return item not to venture into grey areas, while these guys are full on bull in a china shop.

I've tried to share my thought process during last few months of "feeling" bearish but paying attention to the price action in front of me. Again the market had every possible ingredient to fall apart. We had vix spike, we had loss of support, we had bond instability, yet it has rallied and is working to recapture 200d. This is a change in behavior from last year, it should be noted and paid attention to. The ability to list off a bunch of a concerns is not the way to make trading decisions.

It is extremely challenging to navigate these emotions during inflection periods. Difficult longs are often the most profitable, the ones you have to look out for are the ones that really seem to have the wind at their back. So bears doubted the initial move off the oct lows, then they doubted the rise of the 200d, then they doubted the 20d and 50d moving into bullish configuration. Now they must ignore the 200d primed to turn up. I don't list this stuff because it's something I easily conqueror personally, I list it because it's a huge personal challenge and has been a decades long process of hard earned experience.

Because of how I trade I can pivot in a jiff in the face of new evidence, this makes following the trend easier. When I'm less confident I pull in days to expiration or sell lower strikes. I have levers to pull every week to respond to what's occurring in the now. For people who might be 5 days late to new evidence it could be devastating. We always want to pick a side, read someone who supports our chosen team and then stick to it even if conditions change. This is not a winning formula.