Investing General Discussion

Sanrith Descartes · May 21, 2020

"Foreign investors" really means sovereign wealth funds. Also remember that almost all foreign debt is dollar denominated. As local currencies sink they have to buy dollars to pay their loan payments. And as unattractive as our current yields are, with negative yields around the globe, our debt is the only real game in town.

Sanrith Descartes · May 21, 2020

I'm not going to shit up this thread with politics. Rarely has our Federal system (sovereign states coming together) been more impactful than it is right now. High population states with lots of jobs chose to shut down their economies while some extremely low pop states did not (or did so in a minimalist way). If I have some time I will track the numbers by state.

My concern now is less about current unemployment numbers and more about how many of those jobs never come back as companies decide to use this period to make the move to telecommuting permanent and that they really don't see a production downside to only brining back 80% of those laid off.

LachiusTZ · May 21, 2020

Sanrith Descartes said:
I'm not going to shit up this thread with politics. Rarely has our Federal system (sovereign states coming together) been more impactful than it is right now. High population states with lots of jobs chose to shut down their economies while some extremely low pop states did not (or did so in a minimalist way). If I have some time I will track the numbers by state.

My concern now is less about current unemployment numbers and more about how many of those jobs never come back as companies decide to use this period to make the move to telecommuting permanent and that they really don't see a production downside to only brining back 80% of those laid off.

Well yeah...

Real estate is in for a rocky couple of years

Sanrith Descartes · May 21, 2020

Good sign. As we get close to the bell, bid/ask numbers for SPY/QQQ are getting near yesterday's close. We may get a close to green open.

Sanrith Descartes · May 21, 2020

VTIQ/Nikola update. Looks like the Robbinhood day traders have moved on. Volume is down to more normal levels and the stock has leveled off around 22-25 range.

Khane · May 21, 2020

Until they vote on approving the merger on June 2nd!

Sanrith Descartes · May 21, 2020

FYI - for anyone looking for a Biotech play, BIIB dropped below its 50 DMA. EPS over $30, good pipeline and I think it's a good long term investment at this price $300 - $303.

Sanrith Descartes · May 21, 2020

Brutal look at Warren Buffets last 3 big investments. Almost 50% loss on the airlines.

Warren Buffett has lost at least $7 billion from his last 3 big investments

Berkshire Hathaway’s recent track record is really, really bad.

www.marketwatch.com

jeffvader · May 21, 2020

more fodder for the amd/intel argument: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4349081-amd-big-bets-are-being-placed

Sanrith Descartes · May 22, 2020

The one positive about this market black swan is it is going to kill off some zombies and poorly run companies. Hertz problem wasn't the pandemic, it was that they where always the highest priced (by a lot) in a market with an elastic product. Even being Hertz Gold i never used them anymore because they were usually double the price of some others.

Sanrith Descartes · May 23, 2020

Furry · May 24, 2020

Markets just aren't reacting much to that bill that passed the senate delisting all companies that don't allow independent accounting oversight.

Doesn't sound too shocking until you realize independent accounting oversight is illegal in china and this bill will delist all of them. It was a bi-partisan introduction that passed on unanimous consent, so it's chance of becoming law is very high.

Chinese stocks were never smart to begin with, and now they seem really unsmart. The bigger concern overall to me is what will china do in response? This is a pretty big move and china would pretty much be obligated to match.

Khane · May 24, 2020

Chinese stocks were mostly nebulous reverse mergers anyway weren't they? Good riddance to bad rubbish!

Furry · May 24, 2020

Khane said:
Chinese stocks were mostly nebulous reverse mergers anyway weren't they? Good riddance to bad rubbish!

A few have been clawing their way into looking like actual companies that do actual things, like alibaba. I wouldn't trust any chinese company with my money, but I can at least understand why some do, plus they passed metrics that makes institutional investors buy them as parts of diversified portfolios. The threat of delisting will cause all those statistical investors to likely be obligated to sell.

Sanrith Descartes · May 24, 2020

Furry said:
Markets just aren't reacting much to that bill that passed the senate delisting all companies that don't allow independent accounting oversight.

Doesn't sound too shocking until you realize independent accounting oversight is illegal in china and this bill will delist all of them. It was a bi-partisan introduction that passed on unanimous consent, so it's chance of becoming law is very high.

Chinese stocks were never smart to begin with, and now they seem really unsmart. The bigger concern overall to me is what will china do in response? This is a pretty big move and china would pretty much be obligated to match.

Probably assuming it doesn't get passed in the House.

Sanrith Descartes · May 25, 2020

Fucking KSA should be reading this thread or better yet hire

Blazin and myself to run their wealth fund. Stocks were slammed with a generational event and they buy Marriot, Carnival, LiveNation and fucking oil companies. Different countries' oil companies counts as diversity, right? Fuck investing in AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, JNJ, WMT or the host of other blue-chip companies that were down 25+%. Fucking noobs.

Sanrith Descartes · May 25, 2020

Futures flirting with the big 3000 on the S&P.

Blazin · May 26, 2020

Sanrith Descartes said:
Futures flirting with the big 3000 on the S&P.

up and over this morning

Flobee · May 26, 2020

It could reverse at any time, but at this point I half expect the S&P to be at 5000 by end of year. Prolly depends on what wave 2(3?) of stimulus looks like

Furry · May 26, 2020

I'm gonna start buying puts on companies end of trading on the day that they announce vaccines stuff.

Not a lot, just my giggle money. Novavax I'm looking at you tonight.

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