Investing General Discussion

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Khane

Khane

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Blazin said:
You obviously believe whatever reputation I do have here is not deserved
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This is not the case at all. That post was just a touch sanctimonious and seemed more like you congratulating yourself, acting like it was too late and he should just give up on investing since he clearly doesn't have the gift, and a bit of investment dad "I'm not angry, I'm just disappointed".

It had nothing to do with any personal feelings of your investing knowledge.

Most people in this thread tend to talk about what they are planning to buy but are very heavy handed on finance terminology that makes it hard for anyone not "in the know" to understand what they are even trying to say. You made a post a while back about docusign. That post in particular was one of the few, actual pieces of advice I've ever really heard in this thread because it talked about the company itself and why it looked like a good buy, especially in the current economic climate, without any jargon.
 
LachiusTZ

LachiusTZ

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Khane Khane I've asked for clarification several times regarding vernacular, and have always gotten a pretty good answer.

When people talk shop, that is natural.

If it makes you uncomfortable, then you need to get out more.
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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Khane said:
This is not the case at all. That post was just a touch sanctimonious and seemed more like you congratulating yourself, acting like it was too late and he should just give up on investing since he clearly doesn't have the gift, and a bit of investment dad "I'm not angry, I'm just disappointed".

It was a ridiculous post. It had nothing to do with any personal feelings of your investing knowledge.
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I agree with you that it could be read that way, my only response to that is that wasn't my intent. My disappointment is in my failing to get across the message to help a forum bro not be caught in what is now a more difficult situation.
 
TJT

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Khane said:
If you've been giving people advice this entire time I sure haven't seen it. You talk about what you'll be buying, sometimes, and tend to use a lot of investing jargon that muddles whatever advice might actually be there for someone who doesn't sniff their own portfolio farts.

And posts like the above are very eyeroll worthy. Seems to me that because certain people in here act like you're the FoH investing god you've started to buy into it as well.
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I wasn't under the impression that you wanted or needed direct, "derp buy this" type stock tips? I find it helpful to understand what to look at then come to a conclusion. Most of the info I get in this thread is about certain companies I might not have otherwise looked at as my time to spend on investing is limited. So when I do not want to just buy more QQQ or other ETF which is usually always a solid buy I am limited to what companies I generally know about or are interested in. While this has served me well enough it does limit the scope of my investments a bit.

Take for example CAT. Now I always have been aware about CAT I am long on a fair amount of it. However since I don't have price alerts on dozens of companies like some people with more time do. I did not think about CAT again until Sanrith Descartes Sanrith Descartes brought it up.

I did completely agree that buying on the way down felt like absolute shit. But it was also 100% the correct thing to do and I spent a ton of cash doing that. But it has so far been cash well spent.
 
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Jysin

Jysin

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I get the shoulda, woulda, coulda.. truth is, this was a black swan event that no one really could predict. When I saw something crazy like 80% of Chinese ports were closed off back in late Jan / early Feb, that was enough for me to know there would be a knock on supply side effect. Selling Feb 11th, felt like a big win and I was happy about it. The news only got worse and worse, so what started as a supply side issue quickly became (and remains) a demand side issue.

There is still this giant disconnect between Wall St and Main St. Unemployment numbers are staggering, businesses are failing, people are not spending, and even with all of the re-openings, those spending habits and unemployment numbers will have a lasting impact. There is also a very good case for a 2nd wave being all but inevitable at this point. So the question now.. today.. especially for those of you that bought the dips and reaped profit.. when are you selling? Do you not fear the downside risks?

Our situations are similar in that, how do you feel about purchasing / current positions going forward? My gut tells me there needs to be a reckoning of current levels vs what is actually happening in the real world. But my gut has made me miss the big upswing in the first place. I need to set the emotion aside and make difficult, but smart decisions.

I don't feel too bad not heeding the advice here, as I have been up to my eyeballs in real life drama with an 11 week old baby and family wanting to see him / dealing with telling them to take isolation measures or they won't be visiting. I sadly don't have the hours each day to pour over market data. The reading I have done in this thread makes me confident enough to start asking more questions and paying more attention. Should I have been doing this weeks ago? Sure.. but here I am now.

Thanks for all the positive and negative.. I wear my big boy pants and can deal with the criticisms.
 
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Furry

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I'd consider myself a relatively scared investor like you, and I see the same bad outcomes in the future generally. I'm all in at the moment, mostly because I think there is a huge disconnect between wallstreet and mainstreet because of the fed. Since the propping up is political in nature, I expect the collapse to be similarly political. I feel a bit safe to be in until closer to the election.
 
Locnar

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We'll you've already missed the majority of the swing back up and if you think there is another big fall to come, then you risk undoing your good work of selling back in Feb when the market gets back there and goes up beyond it. But all that is ok, selling early but buying back too late is ok. Never selling and riding it down and up is ok. Its just so long as you did not do like some poor souls and sell on the bottom and hold cash.

A few lucky ones (I know one IRL) sold the first couple days of the crash and then bought back in at the nadir.

I was not so lucky, I left retirement alone untouched (except for working overtime to pump more money into 401k while it was low and putting 100 percent of paychecks into it), which was VERY hard to do as this was my first rodeo. and that account is maybe 10 percent down from peak right now and if things keep going up ill be whole and beyond whole soon there. My individual account I cashed out half way down and then dribble by dribble bought into falling knives , with a few buys at rock bottoms and as of yesterday that account is now "whole" and i'm waiting for the big payoff as all those individual stocks I decided to be speculative with turn it around and go up to at least half their former highs. Then i'll sell and reassess that YOLO individual account.

So I guess my advice would be to hedge your bets. Start buying in NOW slowly but surley. IF you are right and we get another "huge dip" then you can use the rest to buy into it then you are sitting pretty. You missed all the rock bottoms and I don't think there are any left, but you can still spend some of your money on blue chips and some on high risk/reward like lets say, Spirit or Allegiant airlines which are still both less than half their former highs.
 
Flobee

Flobee

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I'm no expert but I'll add my experience as commiseration if nothing else. Keep in mind I'm probably working with smaller numbers than most of you. I pulled out half of my position about halfway up the recovery due to the disconnect I saw forming. As of today that was objectively the wrong decision but like you, I expect a correction eventually and am willing to take the hit if I'm wrong.

I don't like the way things look right now, maybe that will make me a fool. We'll see
 
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Furry

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There's the up and downs of being a spooked investor. I managed to dodge both this and the 2007 crash, but I also have lost out on returns at times. Putting money in the market at this time is pretty hard for someone like me, but I did it anyways. Nobody knows what the right answer is, and anyone who tells you is blowing smoke up your ass.
 
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LachiusTZ

LachiusTZ

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Imo, if your wanting to retire in 8 years, I'd prolly stay out and work on income investments.

If you buy in, and things go tits up, you could be fucked.

Odds are slim, but potential pain is high.
 
LachiusTZ

LachiusTZ

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Flobee said:
I'm no expert but I'll add my experience as commiseration if nothing else. Keep in mind I'm probably working with smaller numbers than most of you. I pulled out half of my position about halfway up the recovery due to the disconnect I saw forming. As of today that was objectively the wrong decision but like you, I expect a correction eventually and am willing to take the hit if I'm wrong.

I don't like the way things look right now, maybe that will make me a fool. We'll see
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All my specific stocks are getting held, my tsp is currently in L2020 (70% bonds, 30% stocks etc).

hedging it basically.

i just can't see how we come out of this clean market wise with all the economic numbers.

All the technical guys here say otherwise, but fuck I just refuse to trust for the first time in history we won't see long term damage from the economy taking a shot gun blast to the gut.
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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Furry said:
en.wikipedia.org

2007–2008 financial crisis - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

Best edit that wikipedia then, bro
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Inaccuracies of wiki are of no concern of mine. Here is 2007 S&P 500 , good job making things up. The high occurred in 2007 there was no "crash" until the Fall of 08. People who aren't making up their trading histories know that.

Capture.JPG
 
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LachiusTZ

LachiusTZ

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Blazin said:
Inaccuracies of wiki are of no concern of mine. Here is 2007 S&P 500 , good job making things up. The high occurred in 2007 there was no "crash" until the Fall of 08. People who aren't making up their trading histories know that.

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As good a time as any for this.

To you and Sanrith Descartes Sanrith Descartes

Thanks for answering my stupid low info questions.
 
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brekk

brekk

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Khane said:
If you've been giving people advice this entire time I sure haven't seen it. You talk about what you'll be buying, sometimes, and tend to use a lot of investing jargon that muddles whatever advice might actually be there for someone who doesn't sniff their own portfolio farts.

And posts like the above are very eyeroll worthy. Seems to me that because certain people in here act like you're the FoH investing god you've started to buy into it as well.
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I legit thought Blazin was satiring finance people whenever he talks about resistance and shit. I did not realize those were legit posts with recomendations.


I still stand by the current stock situation is a bubble of tards. There is a terrifying disconnect between the stock market and the economy and eventually the stock market will have to adjust to the reality of how bad things are.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Blazin said:
Inaccuracies of wiki are of no concern of mine. Here is 2007 S&P 500 , good job making things up. The high occurred in 2007 there was no "crash" until the Fall of 08. People who aren't making up their trading histories know that.

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2007 the banks were still covering up the toxic nature of their mortgage instruments. It wasn't until 2008 when they covered their positions that it started to get honestly treated. Mike Burry in the Big Short rails on this in discussing 2007 when it should have collapsed.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Rather than quote a bunch of folks Ill just answer. First off Blazin Blazin speaks how he speaks. He successfully trades and shares his knowledge. Dont bitch if you don't know the words he uses. As a professor in grad school once told a class. "If you are reading shit you don't normally read, have a dictionary handy". In this case, bookmark the Investopedia. I am in it at least once a day.

There is still some value plays available. The easy pickings have been plucked though. Value stocks have lagged and are catching up. The question is how much gain do you want? Picking rando stonk and getting a 30% gain is going to be rough. That was March 23rd. Two ideas for you. Subtract 52 week high from current price and that gives you an possible upside. Also you can use the analysts average price target and subtract from current. I prefer to use both as a guide to give me an upside target. Convert that amount to a percentage gain. I would skip anything less than 10%. Feel free to add dividend yield to that percent if the dividend appears safe.

Government defense contractors have lagged and are catching up. There is still some value there. GD, RTX and LMT though LMT is right at the limit and I would buy the other two instead. There is value in the oil majors (CVX and XOM). Financials are still bubble but be selective in their exposure to shake companies and mortgages/car loans.

Consumer companies still have some room to go as the country reopens. SBUX and MCD come to mind.

Tech and Healthcare are really over bought. That doesn't mean I wouldn't buy it with a really long time horizon. On a solid 3% pullback I'm adding to MSFT, V and AAPL or the XLK/SPYG. Matter of fact I just did this week.

Tldr: there is value available in quality stocks. You need to work for it and have reasonable expectations (10-20% gains) by the end of the year.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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One last thing. Technicals. Support and resistance lines and moving averages are the basic tools. It will take about an hour on YouTube to totally understand them. Then use them to assist you in picking entry and exit points. I don't make a trade with checking them and using them to pick my order prices. Software/websites actually draw the lines for you these days so you dont have to calculate any of them by hand anymore. What you are learning is how to read them, what they mean, and how to use them to make smarter trades.
 
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