ShakyJake
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There is no fucking way the market is going up much further. But what the hell do I know? (hint: nothing)
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Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
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Guest, it's time once again for the massively important and exciting FoH Asshat Tournament!
Go here and give us your nominations!Who's been the biggest Asshat in the last year? Give us your worst ones!
Sanrith Descartes
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Let AAPL or MSFT announce some "#breaking AI" product news and watch how far the market runs up. All it takes is one of the big 2 to announce something the market likes and they will carry the indexes higher.
Big Phoenix
Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
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Bro we just entered a bull market.
I picked up some sqqq and nvds at 22 and 9.40. We shall see how this goes.
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Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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That's the feeling most investors who have only been at it for a few years to a decade have.
The reality is the market is typically trading within I think 10% of the all time high something ridiculous like 80-90% of the time.
We likely push close to the all time high sometime this year. We may not reach it, but it's pretty likely we do next year. And then exceed it.
The CAGR (compounded returns) of the stock market is 10% annually. That's through the Long Depression of the 1870's, Great Depression, two World Wars, the hyperinflation of the 60's and 70's, the Dotcom bust, and Great Recession.
Is the system finally collapsing and reversing that trend? Could be. But I'd put my money on it (and am) continuing at least through most of my lifetime.
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ShakyJake
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My point is that the market naturally has ups and downs. Any time stocks just go up and up and up and up is a bubble, and there will be a hard and fast snap back at some point. It's impossible to call a top but we're due for a correction sometime "soon". Not suggesting a crash, just a healthy pullback.
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Mist
REEEEeyore
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So since inflation isn't down to the 2% that is the Fed's raison d'etre, that means another 25bps hike now instead of July, right?
Jysin
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We're at like 89% of skip now.
*Edit* Make that 98%
For reference:
www.cmegroup.com
*Edit* Make that 98%
For reference:
CME FedWatch Tool - CME Group
Count down to the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate hike with the CME FedWatch Tool, based on the Fed Funds target rate. View the tool.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Got no idea if true or not, but if true you gotta respect people who put their money where their mouth is. I think Carlos is for a world of pain.
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US producer inflation subsides as energy, food prices drop
U.S. producer prices fell more than expected in May as the costs of energy goods and food declined, signaling that inflation pressures were abating throughout the economy and could eventually provide relief to consumers.
OU Ariakas
Diet Dr. Pepper Enjoyer
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US producer inflation subsides as energy, food prices drop
U.S. producer prices fell more than expected in May as the costs of energy goods and food declined, signaling that inflation pressures were abating throughout the economy and could eventually provide relief to consumers.www.reuters.com
I will believe this shit when I see prices start falling at the super market and sub $2.50/gal gas (currently holding steady at $2.99 for the last 3 weeks). Food will be coming down when bulk chicken breasts come off the $2.99/lb they have been at for 2 years (pre-COVID $1.99); I am also looking at strawberries (current $3.29/2lbs, previous $1.99/2lbs) and deli meats ( current $.45-.60/oz previous $.25-.40/oz).
Jysin
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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Rates unchanged by the Fed. The "skip" or pause, whatever you want to call it is here.
Thing to note is the dot plot has priced in 2 further hikes this year and 0 rate cuts until 2024. This is why we are seeing red across the board on the news. Many traders placed bets on cuts this year. If you're thinking of making trades on this info, I'd suggest waiting for the Powell speech. He's surely going to be grilled why increase the dot plot and terminal rate (up to 5.6%), but skip now?
This whole move could be reversed, or see an accelerated sell. IWM (small caps) has sold off with this news too, so there isn't a rotation (YET). This is a risk off move so far.
Thing to note is the dot plot has priced in 2 further hikes this year and 0 rate cuts until 2024. This is why we are seeing red across the board on the news. Many traders placed bets on cuts this year. If you're thinking of making trades on this info, I'd suggest waiting for the Powell speech. He's surely going to be grilled why increase the dot plot and terminal rate (up to 5.6%), but skip now?
This whole move could be reversed, or see an accelerated sell. IWM (small caps) has sold off with this news too, so there isn't a rotation (YET). This is a risk off move so far.