Investing General Discussion

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OU Ariakas

OU Ariakas

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Jysin said:
Rates unchanged by the Fed. The "skip" or pause, whatever you want to call it is here.

Thing to note is the dot plot has priced in 2 further hikes this year and 0 rate cuts until 2024. This is why we are seeing red across the board on the news. Many traders placed bets on cuts this year. If you're thinking of making trades on this info, I'd suggest waiting for the Powell speech. He's surely going to be grilled why increase the dot plot and terminal rate (up to 5.6%), but skip now?

This whole move could be reversed, or see an accelerated sell. IWM (small caps) has sold off with this news too, so there isn't a rotation (YET). This is a risk off move so far.
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Why the fuck would the market be "pricing in" cuts this year? These morons are just taking huge positions on the whims of a group of people that clearly have no idea what they are doing. It is just mind boggling.
 
Jysin

Jysin

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Theres been cuts priced in for July shortly ago. Keeps being pushed back, but markets dont care and are trying to front run the Fed and step into equities. (Last weeks of rally)
 
Gravel

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OU Ariakas said:
I will believe this shit when I see prices start falling at the super market and sub $2.50/gal gas (currently holding steady at $2.99 for the last 3 weeks). Food will be coming down when bulk chicken breasts come off the $2.99/lb they have been at for 2 years (pre-COVID $1.99); I am also looking at strawberries (current $3.29/2lbs, previous $1.99/2lbs) and deli meats ( current $.45-.60/oz previous $.25-.40/oz).
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Once again, that's not how inflation works.

Positive number = higher prices.

Unless we get deflation, prices don't come down. This is just what shit costs now. A smaller positive number just means the pace of increases is slowing, not that they're reversing.
 
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ShakyJake

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Big Phoenix said:
Its trancended into another universe.
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Shit's beyond stupid:

nvda_stupid.jpg
 
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OU Ariakas

OU Ariakas

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Gravel said:
Once again, that's not how inflation works.

Positive number = higher prices.

Unless we get deflation, prices don't come down. This is just what shit costs now. A smaller positive number just means the pace of increases is slowing, not that they're reversing.
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Oh yes, i understand that positive inflation means prices stay high; the article specifically said food prices fall.
 
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ShakyJake

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Question: what would prevent several of the 'big boys' from coordinating to begin selling off their shares of a particular stock while simultaneously buying PUT options?
 
Furry

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ShakyJake said:
Question: what would prevent several of the 'big boys' from coordinating to begin selling off their shares of a particular stock while simultaneously buying PUT options?
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The fact that people backstab each other and lie when you hit money in the amounts necessary to pull that off. And there’s the fact that it’s also highly illegal in a way that will send even very wealthy people to fuck you in the ass prison. Market manipulation is a big nono
 
Rod-138

Rod-138

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My little firm got acquired and my shitty new overlords are making me get consent to trade my personal account, like I can front run my baby dick less than 1 million dollar account to any meaningful degree.

They say I don’t have to pre clear ETF trades, so I’m either going to have to go all ETF or bite the bullet and start complying, but it just feels a bit oppressive. Like, if I want to sell some shit, I have to watch it go down until your team of gay non sock wearing motherfuckers says it’s ok?

on top of that, I’m not even a partner, just a 1099 peon. Is that even legals? I can see if I took a buyout, but you have to manage over 100 million to make partner and I’m only year 1 with these guys.
 
Big Phoenix

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You work for linus tech tips?

Sounds pretty gay but im assuming you work in the world of wallstreet?
 
Gravel

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Rod-138 said:
My little firm got acquired and my shitty new overlords are making me get consent to trade my personal account, like I can front run my baby dick less than 1 million dollar account to any meaningful degree.

They say I don’t have to pre clear ETF trades, so I’m either going to have to go all ETF or bite the bullet and start complying, but it just feels a bit oppressive. Like, if I want to sell some shit, I have to watch it go down until your team of gay non sock wearing motherfuckers says it’s ok?

on top of that, I’m not even a partner, just a 1099 peon. Is that even legals? I can see if I took a buyout, but you have to manage over 100 million to make partner and I’m only year 1 with these guys.
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The fuck? What industry do you work in that that'd be a thing?
 
Rod-138

Rod-138

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Yeah, but we were just a little 5 man firm with a staff of like 15. When rates were low and money was cheap, like 1-2 years ago, the small to midsize national firms started a buyout frenzy and our owner bit the bullet and took the money.

Thankfully we’re located a few states away and can still mostly run stuff the same, but our compliance has become super lame as you would expect moving up to the raid boss HR Lady standards of a big firm.
 
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Creslin

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Gravel said:
Once again, that's not how inflation works.

Positive number = higher prices.

Unless we get deflation, prices don't come down. This is just what shit costs now. A smaller positive number just means the pace of increases is slowing, not that they're reversing.
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this is a great explaination and something so many people misunderstand. The feds goal is that the price of a dozen eggs next year goes from $3 to $3.10, not that is goes back to $1.50. The same is true on large purchases like cars and houses, people waiting for these huge corrections in asset prices are going to be disappointed unless the fed fucks up and lets deflation kick in, which is possible but is looking less and less likely given that some of the biggest deflationary events are bank failures and they have been hyper proactive in mitigating those.
 
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