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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Ps.. my posts above are strictly about investing for the long term and not trading. If you are looking for quick flips like BYND or ZOOM they are a dime a dozen. That isn't the area I focus on.
 
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Khane

Khane

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Jargon is jargon, no matter the industry.

That jargon, and "data driven" trading are why the market is so volatile. People are more interested in analyzing current market data and things like "support" and "resistance" than they are in analyzing a company and what it does. People desperately want to see patterns and then use those patterns to automate their trades. It's less about investing in a company you understand and believe in and more about making money off of market trends.

What's worse is.. the more people buy into it and participate the more it lends itself to confirmation bias. Which in turn creates market crises like the 2008 housing market crisis.

EDIT: And that's not a criticism pointed at any person here. It's a criticism pointed at the Finance Industry as a whole.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Khane said:
Jargon is jargon, no matter the industry.

That jargon, and "data driven" trading are why the market is so volatile. People are more interested in analyzing current market data and things like "support" and "resistance" than they are in analyzing a company and what it does. People desperately want to see patterns and then use those patterns to automate their trades. It's less about investing in a company you understand and believe in and more about making money off of market trends.

What's worse is.. the more people buy into it and participate the more it lends itself to confirmation bias. Which in turn creates market crises like the 2008 housing market crisis.
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I respectfully disagree. You are choosing a binary path.if I am using technicals to trade then I am not "analyzing a company and what it does". I do both. Technicals are a tool. I use them to tell me the best possible price points. I use them AFTER I have analyzed a company and decided I want to buy it. They tell me if it is priced to be profitable or overbought based on my analysis of its financial statements. There is a reason I won't buy FB, TWTR and GOOG (etfs not withstanding).after analzying them (and others) i don't like them. It doesn't matter what the technicals say about them. I didn't buy GOOG at 1050 even though the technicals screamed buy, buy, buy. It failed my analysis as a company I want to own.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Just so everyone can see I put my money where my advice is...

20200528_145329.jpg
 
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TomServo

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Khane said:
If you've been giving people advice this entire time I sure haven't seen it. You talk about what you'll be buying, sometimes, and tend to use a lot of investing jargon that muddles whatever advice might actually be there for someone who doesn't sniff their own portfolio farts.

And posts like the above are very eyeroll worthy. Seems to me that because certain people in here act like you're the FoH investing god you've started to buy into it as well.
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Was wondering when your world weary cynical snark would appear.
 
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jeffvader

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i think the main lesson from all the real pros is you can't time the market. go with your gut. do your own dd. there's that famous stat about how if you miss the top ten days in the last xxx years you miss half the gains or whatever but it's true. you put it in and you leave it in but you be ready to lose it all. don't look at it. don't touch it until you need it. there are a lot of people who get paid a lot of money to know more than you but they don't really know either. i work for some of them. the good ones admit it. or they say buy gold.

i appreciate anyone including blazin who offer ideas here. i have gotten into the penny stock thing lately with my savings. it;'s pretty crazy to go up 1,000 percent in a day or two because of a news release or whatever but i have a feeling in 20 years i'll be real happy that my ira is in large cap stocks with long term steady growth opportunity.

at the end of the day these are our hard earned $. we can all appreciate that, pretty sure.
 
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C

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jeffvader said:
you put it in and you leave it... don't look at it. don't touch it until you need it
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It's not sexy and it doesn't make for much ongoing discussion fodder for this thread, but it works. The wife and I are in the low seven figures at age 40 by working, living modestly below our income, carrying zero consumer debt, and throwing everything in indices since I was mowing lawns at 16. (Also the good luck to have the income from my first post-college job go into the market in 2002/3.)

Market tanks due to global catastrophe? Keep saving, check your account balances in 12-18 months.
 
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Jysin

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For sure, I typically don’t try and time markets. But there were very clear signals of what was to come out of China in late January / early February while markets sat near all-time highs. I’m still in the green on that despite not rotating from bonds back into equities as of yet.

Those that did make the better bets in this thread were timing the lows as well.

This crisis isn’t over yet. It will be interesting to see how the rest of the trading year shakes out.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Jysin said:
For sure, I typically don’t try and time markets. But there were very clear signals of what was to come out of China in late January / early February while markets sat near all-time highs. I’m still in the green on that despite not rotating from bonds back into equities as of yet.

Those that did make the better bets in this thread were timing the lows as well.

This crisis isn’t over yet. It will be interesting to see how the rest of the trading year shakes out.
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No one can time a top or bottom but as you say one can see patterns developing and react. At about 10% down I began my 1st small purchases thinking it was a correction. Once it broke 20% I realized this was beyond the Xmas 2018 event and stopped buying while I reassessed what was happening. My only positions still red are those early positions I started before I truly realized the magnitude of what we were seeing. Dollar cost averaging at the bottom area of the V paid off for me bigly.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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So good news for the day is futures never pushed below 3000 on the ES. Trump is supposed to discuss China today. Be prepared for a whole lot of volatility around what he says.
 
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Punko

Punko

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Sanrith Descartes said:
So good news for the day is futures never pushed below 3000 on the ES. Trump is supposed to discuss China today. Be prepared for a whole lot of volatility around what he says.
Click to expand...

Trump could discuss Snickers vs Twix and there would be a lot of volatility.

Snickers vs Bounty would make the internet explode.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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For those looking for an under the radar investment take a look at TER. Teradyne Inc. They make automated testing systems for all sorts of segments including semiconductors, wifi chipsets, memory chips etc. EPS growth is 15% ttm and they make about $3 a share in earnings. Very little debt (long term debt less than 2019 EBITDA). Its not "cheap", but I can see a 15-20% window up possible from its current price.

Needless to say, do your own due diligence.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Just an FYI - we are sitting right at the 100-day support level for the SPY. The 40-day level is down to 286. 50 DMA is 276.

Don't be shocked if we break down below this level that we drop down to 286 or potentially 276. Not saying it will happen, but depending on what Trump says exactly concerning China and HK today none of these moves would surprise me in the short term.

Don't panic, just enjoy the ride if it happens and use it to find entry points you like.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Trump speaking on China (or so we believe) at 2pm. On a Friday. Buckle up.

 
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