Investing General Discussion

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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Tmac said:
Gonna speak for Sanrith and potentially get corrected. He uses DMA's to determine entry and exits. For example let's use this chart:

View attachment 486695

We can see the QQQ is above all levels of support (20, 50, 100, 200). I've personally drawn a blue line to mark historical growth (pre-2016) and red lines to show growth post-2016. I could probably even do post covid lines as well.

Basically, you don't want to invest in the QQQ atm bc it's in growth mode (above support). You'll want to invest when it falls and hits lower levels of support like the 100 or 200 day, bc you know that it's consolidating lower to come back up.

So, if I followed my own GD rules, I would've maxxed out my QQQ investment in 2019, again in 2020, and in Oct/Nov 22, bc it was contracting below the blue pre-2016 growth and the normal growth.
Click to expand...
Mostly correct. I use other areas of support I see beyond just the current DMAs. the SPY/SPLG doesnt tend to breach the DMA and then bounce back up. it tends to get bought just above it by a dozen or so basis points. There are also spots where it caught support in between the DMAs for various reasons. The red circles are generally the spots I would have been looking to buy/add since the index rose above the 50-DMA back in late March.

edit: so based on this reasoning, it we breach the 50-DMA, the red circles are areas I would be thinking about adding (in addition to the 100/200 DMA and the long term support level).

1692114374223.png
 
ShakyJake

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But why not wait until there are indications of a potential reversal? In order to avoid catching a falling knife and all that.
 
Sanrith Descartes

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ShakyJake said:
But why not wait until there are indications of a potential reversal? In order to avoid catching a falling knife and all that.
Click to expand...
Since it's the S&P, I can look at it's track record of bouncing at the 50-DMA. My indicator is it bounces just above the 50. Until it doesn't. That's why I buy in tranches instead of whole positions. I feel the market is still sound and still moving upwards and to the right. This current move downward isn't telling me we are moving into a bear market sentiment.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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I saw a massive volume spike on SPLG at 1:22pm. Volume in that minute was 358k shares. One trade accounted for 355k of them. That is more than 10% of the total volume so far today. I did not see a similar spike on the SPY

1692124611554.png



That single trade moved $18.5m worth of S&P500 shares on an SPY clone.

1692124555344.png
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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Grabbed a starter position on TGT ahead of earnings tomorrow. I think $120 is the ideal floor but im getting in a tad early due to earnings. This think could moon or basement tomorrow.

edit: also grabbed a very small AAPL position here at the 100-DMA.
 
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Jysin

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Grabbed a starter position on TGT ahead of earnings tomorrow. I think $120 is the ideal floor but im getting in a tad early due to earnings. This think could moon or basement tomorrow.

edit: also grabbed a very small AAPL position here at the 100-DMA.
Click to expand...
For comparison to the Target debacle:
Bud Light distributors no longer expect sales to recover from the Dylan Mulvaney marketing campaign, per NYP.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Jysin said:
For comparison to the Target debacle:
Bud Light distributors no longer expect sales to recover from the Dylan Mulvaney marketing campaign, per NYP.
Click to expand...
Yeah I have been really mulling this one over in my mind. Its a small "gambling" position. You still got those long TGT shares?
 
Tmac

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Grabbed a starter position on TGT ahead of earnings tomorrow. I think $120 is the ideal floor but im getting in a tad early due to earnings. This think could moon or basement tomorrow.

edit: also grabbed a very small AAPL position here at the 100-DMA.
Click to expand...

Anheuser Busch, Disney, and Target are stocks I will not invest in.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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TGT with shitty earnings, slashes forward forecast and the stock runs higher because "it wasn't as shitty as some thought".

I'm guessing they think " it was priced in".

 
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ShakyJake

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Sold my NVDS calls for a tiny profit. Really don't have confidence that this will continue down at this point. Market is retarded over the AI crap.
 
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Lightning Lord Rule

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So I was doing some research on some dividend plays, and saw something that might be of interest to those here: Petrobras (PBR). It's the Brazilian oil giant. Anyway, they announced a dividend on 8/11 with an ex date of 8/22. That rate? 22% (if I'm reading it right). Seems like a no brainer play for a quick payday, unless I'm missing something? The chart on it is a bit volatile, and it recently rose around 30%. I'm thinking if it falls after the ex date then just put in a stop/loss and you should be ok.

Thoughts? Did I find a minor gem or am I really no-braining it?
 
Blazin

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Lightning Lord Rule said:
So I was doing some research on some dividend plays, and saw something that might be of interest to those here: Petrobras (PBR). It's the Brazilian oil giant. Anyway, they announced a dividend on 8/11 with an ex date of 8/22. That rate? 22% (if I'm reading it right). Seems like a no brainer play for a quick payday, unless I'm missing something? The chart on it is a bit volatile, and it recently rose around 30%. I'm thinking if it falls after the ex date then just put in a stop/loss and you should be ok.

Thoughts? Did I find a minor gem or am I really no-braining it?
Click to expand...

Don't believe this is correct, they recently cut the dividend down to less than a 1/5 of what it was
 
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