Investing General Discussion

Kiroy · Aug 17, 2023

Mist said:
Assuming you already have your fixed mortgage, don't consume a ridiculous amount of meat or drive a giant gas guzzler, what other costs are really 'skyrocketing?'

Yes, food has gone nuts, and gas is *gasp* all the way back to where it was when Bush was president, but food should not represent >50% of your budget. Most Americans could eat 40% less food and literally be better off.

Property upkeep and development.

Any trade work one needs done seems to have doubled in price since covid, if not tripled. And if you can do it yourself the materials have skyrocketed as well. I built a deck addition + pergola that would have cost probably 2-3k 5 years ago for 7k. This is after getting quotes (cause I didn't feel like building it) which we're all 20k+.

Anything like this is insane costs. Much more difficult to add value to your most important asset nowadays.

And "ridiculous amount of meat" is just silly. All foodstuffs have inflated. From your ass-shit tier of frozen crap, to veggies rice and flour. Not sure what weird hermit like existence your living where inflation has only affected meat and fuel.

Pretty much the only thing that's the same or cheaper is access to mindless zombie inducing entertainment. Weird.

Sanrith Descartes · Aug 17, 2023

Cybertrucks appear to be shipping. When TSLA announced the shipping of the first MYs, the stock went vertical. The problem is the stock already went parabolic and is falling back to earth. This is by no means an endorsement to buy the stock, just providing info.

Sanrith Descartes · Aug 17, 2023

MSFT at the 100-DMA

Mist · Aug 17, 2023

Kiroy said:
Property upkeep and development.

Any trade work one needs done seems to have doubled in price since covid, if not tripled. And if you can do it yourself the materials have skyrocketed as well. I built a deck addition + pergola that would have cost probably 2-3k 5 years ago for 7k. This is after getting quotes (cause I didn't feel like building it) which we're all 20k+.

Anything like this is insane costs. Much more difficult to add value to your most important asset nowadays.

And "ridiculous amount of meat" is just silly. All foodstuffs have inflated. From your ass-shit tier of frozen crap, to veggies rice and flour. Not sure what weird hermit like existence your living where inflation has only affected meat and fuel.

Pretty much the only thing that's the same or cheaper is access to mindless zombie inducing entertainment. Weird.

Fuel prices around here are exactly where they were during the Bush administration, when most people were making half as much money as they do now, and huge swathes of people were out of work. 8 bucks an hour was a normal wage around here at the time. Now you don't see anyone paying less than 16, but really not less than 20.

Meats and grains are ridiculous. Nuts have actually come way down from the highs during the west coast droughts. Fruit is all over the place, cheap one day, expensive the next. But again, MOST Americans could dramatically cut their food intake and end up being better off. Prices only come back down once people stop sending buy signals.

As for contractors, I've had a lot of work done and I've had to shop around quite a lot, over long periods of time. The differences between quotes are just insane. Some people are taking significantly more advantage of the inflation narrative than others. But materials are down about 30% off their highs, like wood, composite, and shingles.

And your last point isn't weird at all. Things that are only artificially scarce and can actually be copied infinite numbers of time have no reason to go up. The fact that some still have risen is just opportunistic predatory pricing.

Sanrith Descartes · Aug 17, 2023

Mist said:
Fuel prices around here are exactly where they were during the Bush administration, when most people were making half as much money as they do now, and huge swathes of people were out of work. 8 bucks an hour was a normal wage around here at the time. Now you don't see anyone paying less than 16, but really not less than 20.

Meats and grains are ridiculous. Nuts have actually come way down from the highs during the west coast droughts. Fruit is all over the place, cheap one day, expensive the next. But again, MOST Americans could dramatically cut their food intake and end up being better off. Prices only come back down once people stop sending buy signals.

As for contractors, I've had a lot of work done and I've had to shop around quite a lot, over long periods of time. The differences between quotes are just insane. Some people are taking significantly more advantage of the inflation narrative than others. But materials are down about 30% off their highs, like wood, composite, and shingles.

And your last point isn't weird at all. Things that are only artificially scarce and can actually be copied infinite numbers of time have no reason to go up. The fact that some still have risen is just opportunistic predatory pricing.

It goes without saying, but people need to be smart consumers when it comes to food. Now that I am back in Florida I love me some Publix, but their prices are crazy except for the bogo deals. Winn Dixie had a weekend special on family packs of boneless ribeye at $6.99/pound. The same steak is $17/pound at Publix. And no one can beat Walmart for the basic staple items.

Aldarion · Aug 17, 2023

Mist said:
But again, MOST Americans could dramatically cut their food intake and end up being better off.

You keep saying this over and over.

Do you really think that if you take the average American and make them poorer, they're gonna somehow magically eat healthier? What a weird idea.

I don't disagree with the quoted statement, but the idea that making people poorer somehow gets them to do that is just hilariously dumb. It gets them to change ice cream brands and bitch about food prices on tiktok. Thats it.

Furry · Aug 17, 2023

Sanrith Descartes said:
Cybertrucks appear to be shipping. When TSLA announced the shipping of the first MYs, the stock went vertical. The problem is the stock already went parabolic and is falling back to earth. This is by no means an endorsement to buy the stock, just providing info.

I CAN"T BELIEVE HO WMANYT!!!!! and there's like 6.

Meh.

Sanrith Descartes · Aug 17, 2023

Furry said:
I CAN"T BELIEVE HO WMANYT!!!!! and there's like 6.

Meh.

That were seen by some rando on the highway.

Furry · Aug 17, 2023

Sanrith Descartes said:
That were seen by some rando on the highway.

Wait, you still believe social media is random content? Lmao.

Mist · Aug 17, 2023

Aldarion said:
You keep saying this over and over.

Do you really think that if you take the average American and make them poorer, they're gonna somehow magically eat healthier? What a weird idea.

I don't disagree with the quoted statement, but the idea that making people poorer somehow gets them to do that is just hilariously dumb. It gets them to change ice cream brands and bitch about food prices on tiktok. Thats it.

I'm just saying that as long as people continue to eat too much food at too high prices, those prices will not come back down. That is how economics works. Also how fat people logic works.

Sanrith Descartes · Aug 17, 2023

Got back into MSFT at the 100-DMA. $318.75

Lightning Lord Rule · Aug 17, 2023

Sanrith Descartes I didn't follow you out of ALB (with my small position so eh), and it looks like it may be holding at this point. -ish. Kinda. Maybe.

Thoughts and prayers bros.

Sanrith Descartes · Aug 17, 2023

Lightning Lord Rule said:
Sanrith Descartes I didn't follow you out of ALB (with my small position so eh), and it looks like it may be holding at this point. -ish. Kinda. Maybe.

Thoughts and prayers bros.

I was torn on adding or bailing to be honest. Ultimately i didnt see anything to override my 10% cut bait level on trades that go sideways after entry. Aside from its long term debt which I felt was high, the company should have been fine on those earnings. Now that I am out it should moon for you

Sanrith Descartes · Aug 17, 2023

U.S. 30-Year Mortgage Rates Jump To 7.09%, Highest Since 2002

BENZINGA 12:02 PM ET 8/17/2023

Khane · Aug 17, 2023

Sanrith Descartes said:
U.S. 30-Year Mortgage Rates Jump To 7.09%, Highest Since 2002

U.S. 30-Year Mortgage Rates Jump To 7.09%, Highest Since 2002

BENZINGA 12:02 PM ET 8/17/2023

Fortunately you can get much better interest rates on ARM loans.

Sanrith Descartes · Aug 17, 2023

Khane said:
Fortunately you can get much better interest rates on ARM loans.

Even better rates if you use cash.

Gravel · Aug 17, 2023

Sanrith Descartes said:
U.S. 30-Year Mortgage Rates Jump To 7.09%, Highest Since 2002

U.S. 30-Year Mortgage Rates Jump To 7.09%, Highest Since 2002

BENZINGA 12:02 PM ET 8/17/2023

Was talking to some new friends we made the other day, and they bought their house earlier this year I think. I asked them if they didn't mind me asking how bad their interest rate was. It was like 6.5% or something.

A little over a year earlier and we locked in 2.75%. That'd make our monthly payment more than 50% more than it currently is. Insane.

Sanrith Descartes · Aug 17, 2023

Gravel said:
Was talking to some new friends we made the other day, and they bought their house earlier this year I think. I asked them if they didn't mind me asking how bad their interest rate was. It was like 6.5% or something.

A little over a year earlier and we locked in 2.75%. That'd make our monthly payment more than 50% more than it currently is. Insane.

I did the napkin math on the couple who just bought our place in NY. 20% down so no mortgage insurance but with taxes and insurance they are seeing a monthly nut of about $4200. A year earlier it would have been just under $3k. Thats an extra $1200 a month lit on fire. And they are going to get fucked by SALT so they cant even write all that shit off considering their state income tax also.

Mist · Aug 17, 2023

Sanrith Descartes said:
I did the napkin math on the couple who just bought our place in NY. 20% down so no mortgage insurance but with taxes and insurance they are seeing a monthly nut of about $4200. A year earlier it would have been just under $3k. Thats an extra $1200 a month lit on fire. And they are going to get fucked by SALT so they cant even write all that shit off considering their state income tax also.

It's not lit on fire, because it's still going into the equity of the house. They will eventually sell that house and make money unless the entire real estate market tanks unbelievably hard.

Sanrith Descartes · Aug 17, 2023

For any degenerate gamblers out there looking for some yield thats above inflation, have some nice high yield BBB corporate bonds...

Investing General Discussion

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U.S. 30-Year Mortgage Rates Jump To 7.09%, Highest Since 2002​

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U.S. 30-Year Mortgage Rates Jump To 7.09%, Highest Since 2002​

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U.S. 30-Year Mortgage Rates Jump To 7.09%, Highest Since 2002

U.S. 30-Year Mortgage Rates Jump To 7.09%, Highest Since 2002

U.S. 30-Year Mortgage Rates Jump To 7.09%, Highest Since 2002