Investing General Discussion

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Creslin

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It's not lit on fire, because it's still going into the equity of the house. They will eventually sell that house and make money unless the entire real estate market tanks unbelievably hard.
It is lit on fire cause the extra 1200 is purely interest. Though if rates suddenly fall then I think home values will see another sudden surge as the affordability goes way back up.

buying historically has been the right decision. There have been probably 5 years in the last 50 where not buying and waiting for the crash has turned out to be the right call, so I do agree with the sentiment that buying is probably the right move.
 
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Il_Duce Lightning Lord Rule

Lightning Fast
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For any degenerate gamblers out there looking for some yield thats above inflation, have some nice high yield BBB corporate bonds...

View attachment 486968
I'm not familiar with those. Is that 9.252 per year, or 9.252 total on the amount when it matures in 2027? Something else? How high risk are we talking here? BBB- from my extensive research of watching the Big Short more than once means these are dog shit wrapped in cat shit, is that the deal?

Thanks in advance!
 

Mist

REEEEeyore
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Isn't it bad to stick all of your div earnings into one basket like that?
1692292811366.png


Now, something weird could happen to the entire fund, I guess...
 

Palum

what Suineg set it to
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Was talking to some new friends we made the other day, and they bought their house earlier this year I think. I asked them if they didn't mind me asking how bad their interest rate was. It was like 6.5% or something.

A little over a year earlier and we locked in 2.75%. That'd make our monthly payment more than 50% more than it currently is. Insane.
More like common law marriage the rate amirite
 

Jysin

Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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JEPI yields are fantastic, but over a long horizon you are capped in gains due to the selling covered call nature. You are also exposed to downside. Dec'21 to Oct'22 was facing about a 21.5% decline in share price. Just worth looking at the pros vs cons in these type vehicles.

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Sanrith Descartes

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I'm not familiar with those. Is that 9.252 per year, or 9.252 total on the amount when it matures in 2027? Something else? How high risk are we talking here? BBB- from my extensive research of watching the Big Short more than once means these are dog shit wrapped in cat shit, is that the deal?

Thanks in advance!
Yield to Maturity is the estimated return if the bond is held to maturity and assumes all coupon payments are made. Bonds are a different animal than stocks, not really more complicated, (maybe even less so) but definitely different. I will spoil the rest for length

So we have a fair number of moving parts here.

Lest start with the coupon. The coupon is the annual interest paid on the bond (usually twice a year) to the bond holder to reward them for loaning the bond writer the cash.

Example, this is a brand new US 30-year treasury that just got sold at the auction 2 days ago. Notice the coupon is 4.125%. This means the bond holder will be paid 4.125% of the face value of the bond annually (in two payments every six months). So if you bought a $1000 bond, you would get paid $41.25 annually (split in two payments every six months) for the next 30 years. At maturity in 30 years, the gubmint would pay you your $1,000 back and redeem the bond. You also have the $1,237.50 in coupon payments.

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Some short term Treasury notes dont have coupon payments. They just sell the bond at a discount to face value. For example a 1-year zero coupon US Treasury note offered at 5% would be sold to you at $950 for a $1,000 note and in 1 year they would pay you the full face value of $1,000 so you made 5% interest on the note.

Now a curve ball comes in when you start looking at bonds being sold not at a new auction but on the secondary market. They dont have the full length of time left to run to receive coupon payments so the seller adjusts the sale price to make it up. thats why you see "used" bonds being sold for less than par (face value).

Going back to that 1-year zero coupon example, if you bought from someone 6 months after it was issued, they might sell it to you for $975 (2.5% interest rate) because you are only holding it for 6 months and not a full year. So half the interest rate it was issued at.

So why buy bonds? Security over time.

People in 1995 bought 30-year Treasuries paying a coupon of 7.625% and they have been paid that same 7.625% interest every year for 30 years. If they gubmint offered a 30-year treasury tomorrow at 7.625%. I would back a truck up to buy them. The current 4% or so doesnt do it for me.


1692294802046.png



"Normally" the longer the time you loan the money, the higher the return. But... we are currently operating in an inverted yield curve environment. So the shorter debt is paying a higher rate than the longer debt. Sounds odd? Its because people believe interest rates are going to keep going up and dont want to tie up their money in longer term debt when the next debt issued might pay a higher rate. So right now, 3-month and 6-month Treasury notes are yielding over 5%. You can buy zero coupon Treasury notes expiring in Feb and they are returning 5+% annual interest so holding for 6 months gives you roughly $26.43 per $1,000 bond (Purchase price of $97.357 per $100 face value). Just like stocks you can see the bid and the ask spread and this is where market makers can make their money. Its in fractions of pennies but they dollar amounts of bonds involved make it real money.

This is the current Buffett strategy. He is cycling the Berkshire cash piles into 3 and 6 month treasuries and is just recycling them for now. When a bond expires, he just buys some more and isnt tying up cash for long periods of time. He is content to make the interest while he waits.

1692295116082.png


That should cover some basics.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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JEPI yields are fantastic, but over a long horizon you are capped in gains due to the selling covered call nature. You are also exposed to downside. Dec'21 to Oct'22 was facing about a 21.5% decline in share price. Just worth looking at the pros vs cons in these type vehicles.

View attachment 486978
It is good for what it does, but like everything it isnt perfect and needs to be watched.
 

Mist

REEEEeyore
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JEPI yields are fantastic, but over a long horizon you are capped in gains due to the selling covered call nature. You are also exposed to downside. Dec'21 to Oct'22 was facing about a 21.5% decline in share price. Just worth looking at the pros vs cons in these type vehicles.

View attachment 486978
And what did the S&P 500 fall in the same period?
 

Jysin

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Mist Mist
Absolutely JEPI is a better performer vs holding S&P500 in a declining stock market, but it lags massively in a positive one. (JEPI +12.2% Oct22-Jul23 (plus divs) vs SPY ~32% (plus divs)) over the same period.

We were discussing in relation to corp / gov bonds, so I was merely pointing out the fact that in-fact JEPI can lose money. Your treasuries etc are basically free money with 0 downside, apart from opportunity cost.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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This 0DTE shit is comically sad. All of these are out of the money now. Another 1.5m contracts.

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Kiroy

Marine Biologist
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It's not lit on fire, because it's still going into the equity of the house. They will eventually sell that house and make money unless the entire real estate market tanks unbelievably hard.

not sure if you understand how amortization schedules work...? Most homeowners sell their home in less than 10 years. In that time they've burned an insane amount of cash in interest payments.
 
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Big Phoenix

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not sure if you understand how amortization schedules work...? Most homeowners sell their home in less than 10 years. In that time they've burned an insane amount of cash in interest payments.
Dont forget repairs, upgrades hoa payments etc.

Even on a long time line houses really arent positives unless youre lucky. They are better viewed as resevoirs of wealth imo.
 
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Palum

what Suineg set it to
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Dont forget repairs, upgrades hoa payments etc.

Even on a long time line houses really arent positives unless youre lucky. They are better viewed as resevoirs of wealth imo.
Well in the modern era also hedges against inflation which is becoming way more relevant.