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Blazin

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Oil may have more to go but I sold XLE today @ 93 , Mostly just me locking in a good run, I think making another 10% will be harder than the last 10%
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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IWM showing the relative weakness today. Trading back at the 100/200MAs again.

I added back what I sold in the 190s.
Followed you back in yesterday at $183 with it bouncing at the 200-DMA.
 
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Jysin

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Its dipped a bit. Currently showing $58 now on my quote window.

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Blazin

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Last couple days was very difficult to not hit the sell on IWM and SPY. My patience for pullback is now about exhausted at these levels. We need to move off of these levels or I'll sell and re evaluate . Sideways markets can be frustrating and I try to be patient and they will try you the hardest right before the break.
 
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Gravel

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Last couple days was very difficult to not hit the sell on IWM and SPY. My patience for pullback is now about exhausted at these levels. We need to move off of these levels or I'll sell and re evaluate . Sideways markets can be frustrating and I try to be patient and they will try you the hardest right before the break.
It's even harder when you need to liquidate for actual living expenses.

I mentioned last year that because the market was so bad, I was only going to do enough for about 2/3 to 3/4 of our 2023 expenses. Well, we're about at the time. I did a month back in July and timed the peak almost perfectly. Did another two months today which I think should finish us up for the year. But I still need to liquidate enough for next year, and yeah, this sideways shit makes that really hard to pull the trigger.

We could easily go up or down from here and that makes your asshole pucker up when you're talking about money you actually need to live on (and you took a 20% haircut last year).
 
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Blazin

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It's even harder when you need to liquidate for actual living expenses.

I mentioned last year that because the market was so bad, I was only going to do enough for about 2/3 to 3/4 of our 2023 expenses. Well, we're about at the time. I did a month back in July and timed the peak almost perfectly. Did another two months today which I think should finish us up for the year. But I still need to liquidate enough for next year, and yeah, this sideways shit makes that really hard to pull the trigger.

We could easily go up or down from here and that makes your asshole pucker up when you're talking about money you actually need to live on (and you took a 20% haircut last year).
My wife still works so I'm not quite in the same boat in that we can often choose to not spend investment money at times. I think you are going to get a decent chance to make a good sell between now and year end. I still have zero freaking read on next year but my base case is that we still make a push at the ATH this year
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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I haven't really been keeping up much since S-Corps and C-Corps on extension have a deadline of tomorrow to file their tax returns. I have been slammed all week

For the most part I have been writing puts and starting some small positions on companies I like that look oversold. Options is a nice way to make some small alpha during a sideways market.

Dis anyone follow the ARM IPO at all today?
 

Sanrith Descartes

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Question:
Do we want a separate thread just to post actual trades? I know this thread can move quick at times and people following trades can get lost trying to filter through buy and sell orders especially if it's a short flip like that last MVDA bear trade was that a few people jumped on.
 

Jysin

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Last couple days was very difficult to not hit the sell on IWM and SPY. My patience for pullback is now about exhausted at these levels. We need to move off of these levels or I'll sell and re evaluate . Sideways markets can be frustrating and I try to be patient and they will try you the hardest right before the break.
Along with SPY, TLT, and IWM, I still have about 15% weight in JEPI for this choppy consolidating mess. At least it’s pulling a monthly dividend.
 
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Jysin

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Question:
Do we want a separate thread just to post actual trades? I know this thread can move quick at times and people following trades can get lost trying to filter through buy and sell orders especially if it's a short flip like that last MVDA bear trade was that a few people jumped on.
I’m too lazy. Lol. The thread has a reasonable pace. It’s just certain days and catalysts can end up pushing discussion over multiple pages. That’s not the norm, however.
 
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Jysin

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Interesting strength with Disney near the close. Had a news hit about selling off ABC network. Caught a small bid, but later in they day another release stated they are lowering guidance on their streaming subs and projected to miss 2024 earlier estimates by “tens of millions” of subscribers. Stock tanked immediately by algo selling, but recovered most of the down move in a single 5m candle. By end of day and post market, it’s trading highs.

I would have thought the streaming news would be more impactful to the downside. Some rumors swirling the selloff of the media arms is indicative of shopping for a buyout. Pure speculation, but the stock price action is interesting to note.
Blazin Blazin thoughts?

1694728020010.png
 
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Blazin

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Interesting strength with Disney near the close. Had a news hit about selling off ABC network. Caught a small bid, but later in they day another release stated they are lowering guidance on their streaming subs and projected to miss 2024 earlier estimates by “tens of millions” of subscribers. Stock tanked immediately by algo selling, but recovered most of the down move in a single 5m candle. By end of day and post market, it’s trading highs.

I would have thought the streaming news would be more impactful to the downside. Some rumors swirling the selloff of the media arms is indicative of shopping for a buyout. Pure speculation, but the stock price action is interesting to note.
Blazin Blazin thoughts?

View attachment 490659
I think the sub loss is baked in at this point with expectations of profitability pushed out years. They aren't going to be anywhere close to the original sub goals. Talk of breaking the company up is what can move it off these lows because a sum of the parts there is value at this price level. Selling ABC, resolving Hulu/Comcast issue, Selling ESPN I think are needed for this thing to go anywhere.

I would recommend reading the piece on cnbc its quite long and gives some insight into Iger leadership. It certainly doesn't instill confidence as leadership still doesn't seem to "get it" . What we dont know is how the last few months might be waking them up. I come away from it feeling Iger needs to go but he will resist that with every fiber of his being as his entire legacy will now be based on him turning this around and not leaving it in this state.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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I think the sub loss is baked in at this point with expectations of profitability pushed out years. They aren't going to be anywhere close to the original sub goals. Talk of breaking the company up is what can move it off these lows because a sum of the parts there is value at this price level. Selling ABC, resolving Hulu/Comcast issue, Selling ESPN I think are needed for this thing to go anywhere.

I would recommend reading the piece on cnbc its quite long and gives some insight into Iger leadership. It certainly doesn't instill confidence as leadership still doesn't seem to "get it" . What we dont know is how the last few months might be waking them up. I come away from it feeling Iger needs to go but he will resist that with every fiber of his being as his entire legacy will now be based on him turning this around and not leaving it in this state.
Spinning off parks and their studios/D+/Hulu/IP would create a beast. Go back to the core business like the old days. Sell the rest of the media shit like ABC/ESPN etc.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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I read tomorrow's triple witching is the largest options expiry in history. Over $3t expiring tomorrow. Buckle up.
 
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