Investing General Discussion

Tmac · Oct 12, 2023

IDK where to put my money...

Gravel · Oct 12, 2023

B_Mizzle said:
What makes this worse is that it's 4% of the already inflated prices from last year.

You're forgetting this started with "transitory inflation" in 2021.

Sep '21 was 5.39%
Sep '22 was 8.20%
Sep '23 is 4.10%

We're now in compounding territory.

Gravel · Oct 12, 2023

Sanrith Descartes said:
On a personal note, one thing I have learned watching people I know die way too early, saving for retirement is important but not to the extent you dont enjoy life on the way. Not much worse than missing out on life saving every dime to enjoy in retirement only to die in your 40's/50's. As in all things... moderation.

ps.. One of the keys (in my opinion) to having enough to retire is owning your own home. Be it a house, condo or whatever. Not having that nut each month removes a sizable chunk of your annual retirement costs.

Probably 4 or 5 years ago one of the guys from the Mr Money Mustache forums made a good calculator to account for that, the "Rich, Broke, or Dead" calculator. Really puts things into perspective.

Just going to paste in the default one out of laziness. But it's good to play with. The grey part is dead, the red is broke. People focus way too much on the smallest sliver.

Rich, Broke or Dead? Post-Retirement FIRE Calculator: Visualizing Early Retirement Success and Longevity Risk - Engaging Data

A FI/RE early retirement calculator visualizing longevity risk in early retirement and enables you to compare the probability success, failure and mortality.

engaging-data.com

Kiroy · Oct 12, 2023

Jysin said:
Bloomberg article this morning talking about the failed IPO and just happened to casually mention that their 2023 revenues year to date are 20% lower than the previous year over the same period. Doesn’t sound great to me.

ya I don't know anything about their numbers so that's obviously horrible for them - i'm more talking about how in the last 5-10 years they've gotten past their stigma of being just hippy sandals

Kiroy · Oct 12, 2023

Sanrith Descartes said:
ps.. One of the keys (in my opinion) to having enough to retire is owning your own home. Be it a house, condo or whatever. Not having that nut each month removes a sizable chunk of your annual retirement costs.

This is why we selling our CA ranch for stupid dollars (bout to close) and downgrading our lifestyle a bit to pay cash for a house (still a nice place on half acre in the country) as we move out of CA to get our kid closer to family. We'll have made about 100k a year on this property, and if you math out the interest we've payed for the whole duration we'll have still made about 55k a year. Just stupid

Furry · Oct 12, 2023

I'm saving a lot for retirement, because I want to skip out on the work life by 50, which I feel will be young enough to still do lots of stuff. That said, I'm a strong believer in do now rather than later as much as possible. I'm dumping an obscene amount of money on my trip coming up, but it'll smash a few things off my bucket list. I make a point to do something I've always wanted to do every year or two, whether it's be a weaboo in japan, charter a yacht in the pacific, hike through the swiss alps with a backpack and no plan, or go bar hopping in germany, ect. You only live once.

Sanrith Descartes · Oct 12, 2023

Tmac said:
IDK where to put my money...

I'll DM you my Venmo info.

Sanrith Descartes · Oct 12, 2023

Gravel said:
Probably 4 or 5 years ago one of the guys from the Mr Money Mustache forums made a good calculator to account for that, the "Rich, Broke, or Dead" calculator. Really puts things into perspective.

Just going to paste in the default one out of laziness. But it's good to play with. The grey part is dead, the red is broke. People focus way too much on the smallest sliver.

Rich, Broke or Dead? Post-Retirement FIRE Calculator: Visualizing Early Retirement Success and Longevity Risk - Engaging Data

A FI/RE early retirement calculator visualizing longevity risk in early retirement and enables you to compare the probability success, failure and mortality.

engaging-data.com

View attachment 494817

I have these convos with my mom regularly. She owns her condo and has no real expenses beyond regular upkeep and HOA which her SS easily covers. I take her RMD each year and reinvest it into her brokerage account since she doesn't need it. She likes to cruise but is constantly concerned if she takes another cruise she will "run out of money". I have to remind her to just do whatever she likes and enjoy her life.

Sanrith Descartes · Oct 12, 2023

Kiroy said:
This is why we selling our CA ranch for stupid dollars (bout to close) and downgrading our lifestyle a bit to pay cash for a house (still a nice place on half acre in the country) as we move out of CA to get our kid closer to family. We'll have made about 100k a year on this property, and if you math out the interest we've payed for the whole duration we'll have still made about 55k a year. Just stupid

Im not going to reopen the mortgage or no mortgage discussion beyond adding that paying cash for my house allowed me to look at our finances in a different light when we moved and bought the current business. Its a combo of the financial line on the ledger being 0 each year and the mental security of knowing that in an economic holy shit event we have a place to live.

Kiroy · Oct 12, 2023

Sanrith Descartes said:
Im not going to reopen the mortgage or no mortgage discussion beyond adding that paying cash for my house allowed me to look at our finances in a different light when we moved and bought the current business. Its a combo of the financial line on the ledger being 0 each year and the mental security of knowing that in an economic holy shit event we have a place to live.

I've estimated our new monthly bills and we've determined that even if our business life completely implodes we'd be able to live nicely and still save for retirement if we each got a part job at home depot. If we can carry on how we have been we should be able to retire at 50-55 (we're both 40ish)

Sanrith Descartes · Oct 12, 2023

Closed out my SPLG puts expiring next week. The decision to not double down when we were down hard a week ago ended up costing me some cash and since I missed my limit to buy shares by a dime I came up empty handed there too.
Sometimes you eat the bear and sometimes the bear eats you.

Gravel · Oct 12, 2023

Sanrith Descartes said:
I have these convos with my mom regularly. She owns her condo and has no real expenses beyond regular upkeep and HOA which her SS easily covers. I take her RMD each year and reinvest it into her brokerage account since she doesn't need it. She likes to cruise but is constantly concerned if she takes another cruise she will "run out of money". I have to remind her to just do whatever she likes and enjoy her life.

I had to basically shame my mom into retiring. I told her even without Social Security, she'd never run out of money.

I do think part of it was that one day she started doing the math on what age family members died and she realized she probably has 15-20 good years left that she finally decided it was time.

Sanrith Descartes · Oct 12, 2023

Gravel said:
I had to basically shame my mom into retiring. I told her even without Social Security, she's never run out of money.

I do think part of it was that one day she started doing the math on what age family members died and she realized she probably has 15-20 good years left that she finally decided it was time.

Those generations were brought up understanding how hard life can be. My grandparents were kids during the Depression and that those scars were passed down to their kids.

Sanrith Descartes · Oct 12, 2023

Social Security going up 3.2% next year.

Edaw · Oct 12, 2023

Sanrith Descartes said:
Social Security going up 3.2% next year.

Captain Suave · Oct 12, 2023

Sanrith Descartes said:
Those generations were brought up understanding how hard life can be. My grandparents were kids during the Depression and that those scars were passed down to their kids.

My grandmother lost her family farm in the Depression and was borderline homeless for a while. She was comfortably wealthy late in life and still carefully saved and reused Christmas wrapping paper. Those scars are so deep I even have some of them.

Jysin · Oct 12, 2023

30yr bond auction just made the market shit the bed. Yields and dollar spike.

13:02*(US) TREASURY $20B 30-YEAR BOND REOPENING DRAWS 4.837% V 4.345% PRIOR; BID TO COVER 2.35 V 2.46 PRIOR AND 2.39 OVER LAST 8 REOPENINGS

Big Phoenix · Oct 12, 2023

Wooosh

Jysin · Oct 12, 2023

Captain Suave said:
My grandmother lost her family farm in the Depression and was borderline homeless for a while. She was comfortably wealthy late in life and still carefully saved and reused Christmas wrapping paper. Those scars are so deep I even have some of them.

Those do scar deep! When my great grandmother passed away, we found she had stockpiled tons of canned food in the cellar and other necessities in her attic. Not a hoarder by any means, as her house was neat and tidy. Having lived through the great depression, I think food scarcity just gets burned in the back of your mind forever. Crazy stuff.

Sanrith Descartes · Oct 12, 2023

Jysin said:
30yr bond auction just made the market shit the bed. Yields and dollar spike.

13:02*(US) TREASURY $20B 30-YEAR BOND REOPENING DRAWS 4.837% V 4.345% PRIOR; BID TO COVER 2.35 V 2.46 PRIOR AND 2.39 OVER LAST 8 REOPENINGS

That tail was brutal.

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