The_Black_Log Foler
Stock Pals Senior Vice President
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Everyone be using those google sheets. I’ll keep digging today. I don’t want to have to manually enter shit. What is this 2004?!
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Investing General Discussion
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Sanrith Descartes
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Honestly once you automate everything in Excel it's close to zero maintenance. The holding weights don't change "radically" so a monthly update is fine. Also, most likely you aren't going to really care about stuff outside the top ten of ETF composition (this is probably the keyword to look for, ETF composition) because the percentage of weight is gonna small enough to not make a huge difference.
It takes me maybe 2 minutes to tweak the formulas with the updated percentages each month.
Ps.. there are successful investors who still chart stocks on graph paper. They just stick to the old ways. Welcome to finance.
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Blazin
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Things really running, looks like I left about 5-6k on the table. IWM has pretty strong resistance at 198, I was a little quick on the trigger because Fed days normally get you some traps and give and take and I thought I could get cute jumping in and out. My goal had been to sell at 198 when I entered. Was a mistake. This is full on squeeze mode now. As for the larger market everyone can taste the ATH now it's inevitable for QQQ and SPY at this point maybe by the end of this week.
Probably going to be ticking to "extreme greed" on the F&G index by end of week or next week. We are nearing one of my rules of caution which is being 10% or more above the 200d, this is not always a top signal and i've seen it get as extreme as 17% over the 200d. On this long term chart I have my red brackets that are a couple decades in the making, I get less bullish as we near upper bounds. We broke out of this slope 21 just to fall right back into it. To me being out of the brackets is unsustainable in the long term but that doesn't mean we can't make a push to up above the top band again.
We are setting up for exactly my base scenario of ending year at ATH to maximum frig with people's psychology going into new year. The bears who touted "bear rally" all year now look like complete fools, but that won't stop them saying we are now in the same set up as going into 21 year end. I have little to no read right now on how the market handles ATH but I'm eager to see. Maybe no read is not right, I have a slight bias towards that we punch through to near 5200 by spring.
Interest rates continue to drop that is going to keep fueling the rally...until it doesn't. I think my main focus will be watching rates if they drop too far too fast that could be the thing that gives the market pause. Too far too fast means recession not soft landing.
Probably going to be ticking to "extreme greed" on the F&G index by end of week or next week. We are nearing one of my rules of caution which is being 10% or more above the 200d, this is not always a top signal and i've seen it get as extreme as 17% over the 200d. On this long term chart I have my red brackets that are a couple decades in the making, I get less bullish as we near upper bounds. We broke out of this slope 21 just to fall right back into it. To me being out of the brackets is unsustainable in the long term but that doesn't mean we can't make a push to up above the top band again.
We are setting up for exactly my base scenario of ending year at ATH to maximum frig with people's psychology going into new year. The bears who touted "bear rally" all year now look like complete fools, but that won't stop them saying we are now in the same set up as going into 21 year end. I have little to no read right now on how the market handles ATH but I'm eager to see. Maybe no read is not right, I have a slight bias towards that we punch through to near 5200 by spring.
Interest rates continue to drop that is going to keep fueling the rally...until it doesn't. I think my main focus will be watching rates if they drop too far too fast that could be the thing that gives the market pause. Too far too fast means recession not soft landing.
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Tmac
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I’m unfamiliar with the rate at which long term treasury rates rise and fall. Whats normal and what would be an example of too far too fast?
A full percent tomorrow? Two percent over the next six months?
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Tmac
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Tmac
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Yeah, I looked at the charts. Which is why I asked about a 2% drop specifically.
The_Black_Log Foler
Stock Pals Senior Vice President
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I think I just don’t know the automation capabilities of excel. I’ll take a looksy.
Interestingly enough I was talking to my financial advisor this morning about this. He wasn’t aware of any software other than expensive corporate stuff they use that can do this. He echoed a similar sentiment to you - probably not as important as looking at asset class allocation.
We started going off on a tangent discussing how his firm is making a push to do more basket investing for clients. The idea being more granular control of what stocks make up the “fund” versus having crony/corrupt fund managers in charge. He thinks the returns will be higher as he doesn’t think fund managers exactly have best interest of buyers in mind. However it’s been hard to justify to clients to make the switch as they’d eat a good amount of capital gains tax.
He said he’d crunch the numbers for me to see if it would be worthwhile to switch my portfolio over to this model.
Also got some clarification with him. I pay about 5-7 basis points for AUM due to him lumping my assets in with a family member (decreases my AUM fee). I’m ok with this. Been with him a decade and he’s probably the only person I’d trust with my life or that of a family members.
Sanrith Descartes
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So once you built the formulas into the cells of Excel, they will continue to run untouched. For example, once you build in a cell that AAPL is 5% of SPY and then you tell it to add the value of individual AAPL shares plus 5% of the total of your SPY position, you then tell it to divide this total AAPL value by the total of your portfolio and it spits out the weight of AAPL in your entire portfolio. From then on you just punch in the AAPL share price and the SPY share price and it runs the updated totals every time you make an update.
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The weights are moving all the time, too, so you really need the portfolio value, index price/position, index weights, and individual asset prices/positions to get it all nailed perfectly. As you say, the mechanics of update are very easy and shouldn't take more than a minute or two once the basic structure is set up.
Basic mock-up for Foler with some numbers I just made up, doesn't cover all nuances. Green cells are inputs.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Correct. I was just using an example.
This data feeds over to the sector tracking section to watch my sector weights and also a section for invested dollars showing the weighting of each instrument in a standalone chart for ease of view that is filtered.
Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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Sanrith Descartes
Veteran of a thousand threadban wars
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Kind of fitting with our current discussion about investment "professionals". Full context, they did have some amazing years the last couple with the oil fuckery going on during covid. But you gotta know when to say enough is enough.
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Blazin
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Blazin
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You can add a RateOfChange indicator to a long term chart this will give you a good historical perspective for any particular index or stock you are seeking to answer this type question from a general sense. I like Rate of Change with Std dev bands.
To answer more specifically it's about the character of the change for me consistent but smaller moves over weeks or months in the bond market is very different then sudden moves. I would consider moves of 0.30% or more in a day on the 10yr yield are outsized moves and signs that there is a degree of turmoil within the treasury market.
If the 10yr falls below the 3.5% range the market is going to notice
Sanrith Descartes
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I realized I didnt post the data behind this. Attached are my four different accounts. My SEP and Brokerage accounts are smaller relative to the size of the Rollover and Roth so their results aren't as significant to my overall results. Im beating the S&P by roughly 50% this year. This is one of my better years and probably my best for beating the S&P. I will sit down and analyze every trade over the holidays but my gut is telling me that between the house and pool purchases needing cash plus buying a new business and commercial real estate, I got more conservative and risk averse than I normally am. I avoided riskier plays (hello to you SPACs), took profits off the board more often and generally was adamant about cutting my losers short. Keeping a real tight leash on my bad trades helped me avoid a real assfucking like I took with PYPL a few years ago. I also really lowered my option plays to only low risk revenue producers.
tldr: Have a plan, think it through, execute it with as little emotion as possible and when in doubt, just follow the plays
Blazin
and
Jysin
make .ps.. All joking aside, Blazin, Jysin and myself all trade differently. We see different trades and we use different tools (beyond the basics) to figure them out. Yet we all make money. The beauty of the market is there is no one "right" way to win. Just find the way that works for you. Unless you are Paul Pelosi and then there is only one right way to win.
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Moglyzoke Moogleman
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Tmac
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Ohhh, I really like these. Very cool to help with entry and exit points. Thanks for the rec.
Tenfour. Thanks for elaborating.