Investing General Discussion

Haus said:

I think essentially the Fed has realized the markets are so deperate for a reason to go up that they know "Oh, we need to goose stocks for a few days/a week? Say no more fam, get MC Powell up there for a vague statement about reducing rates we can mostly retract a few days later without actually changing rates at all!"

Now, following up with the fact that I agree with Sanrith Descartes on the fact that the strangers on the internet here are probably better than a number of the pros overall. I have my current small quandary I'm debating... Within the realm of my investing/assets/retirement world I have around 7-8% of that which is in a brokerage account I manually direct. (The rest is in a 401k, RSU stock from my company, my personal residence, and other real estate) We're not talking about earth shattering money, this is less than 10% of my asset layout. I go with a "if you like something find a low cost ETF that lets you invest in that space" theory because I'm no day trader and just using this as a way to grow some money for what I call "project peaches." Right now it's split pretty evenly between :

$ITOT - base "invest in the market" ETF
$HDV - Your grandmas ETF for some dividend income (which has been really stable through volatility for me)
$SPY - Sofi select ETF so a slightly more focused "invest in the market" angle
$XLK - "Invest in what you know" and I know technology and cybersecurity, so this looked like a good ETF in that space.
$URNM - My "Bet on something" ETF because I firmly believe that in the long run we as a society are going to realize nuclear is the easiest "clean" energy option.

I've had this bundle going around 2.5 years. All are in the green comfortably and I'm around %17 up on my portfolio in that time with a very lazy "set it and mostly forget it" approach. $HDV as you might expect is the laggard in terms of growth (just into the green), but I have harvested a good amount of dividend income off it. Of them @URNM has been my favorite child as in the last 2 years it's up over 30%. Which I consider good for the extremely low tier of effort I put in.

My question has become what to dump more into of that spread, or if I want to add another ETF. Target is really performance over the next year or two. I work in sales and that means lumpy commission income, but we live so comfortably off my base salary that all commissions can go into investments, toys, and "fun".

Mitigating thought is the fact that if I pull the trigger on "Project peaches" I'll probably liquidate a lot of this to cover that. "Project peaches" is the plan to buy land away from town and build the "we're going to live out our days on this land" house for @Mrs. Haus and I, turning our current house into a rental.

So, strangers on the internet, how much of an idiot am I? And what do you think?

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I have liked HDV for my mom's account for many years. Currently interest rates and inflation make it less good. That being said, it is a steady performer but the 3-4% yield is not pretty in today's environment. If you see rates coming back down then riding it through isn't the worst idea.

I like ITOT but it has perennially underperformed SPY marginally. Having it and SPY is really only the thing if you are just getting some exposure to smalls and mids if this is the reason then I agree.

XLK? You already own big tech in ITOT and SPY, this addition could be sending you into very heavy weighting in AAPL, MSFT, GOOG, GOOGL etc. if you are good with this then it's fine.

Not familiar with SURNM.

Damn. Just found SCHG. Wondering if it may have been/be a better option than qqqm for long term hodlr. We’re talking ER of .04 vs .15.. Top 10 holdings are similar although SCHG seems to have slightly larger (2-5% each of total portfolio) of big tech. QQQM is apparently more volatile which I’m not sure I mind long term.

any thoughts on SCHG for long term hodling tilting towards big tech?

Sanrith Descartes Blazin Jysin curious what tools you guys are using for investing? I see your fancy charts you SS. Also what brokerage do you guys use?

Foler said:

Damn. Just found SCHG. Wondering if it may have been/be a better option than qqqm for long term hodlr. We’re talking ER of .04 vs .15.. Top 10 holdings are similar although SCHG seems to have slightly larger (2-5% each of total portfolio) of big tech. QQQM is apparently more volatile which I’m not sure I mind long term.

any thoughts on SCHG for long term hodling tilting towards big tech?

https://www.schwabassetmanagement.com/products/schg

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Each major brokerage has their own versions of just about every ETF. Some (like Fidelity) also make deals with funds for discounted ETFs (in Fidelity's case, that's Blackrock and iShares funds).

The percentage in the composition is most likely impacted by the number of holdings in the basket. If XLK has 100 holdings and FTEC has 75, then all other things being equal the weights in FTEC will be heavier since it has less holdings making up the composition. Those numbers I listed are made up by the way.

Don't over think it "too" much. Look at net fee, the specific holdings in the basket and the total number of holdings. Also make sure the AUM of the fund isn't small. More than likely the ones that have more AUM will be charging a smaller fee (but not always). So all else being equal, invest in the version with $10b in AUM. and not the same one with $10m under management.

Personally I'm not a Schwab person, but that's just a personal taste thing. I generally gravitate to Fidelity/Blackrock, Vanguard and then State Street ETFs (in that order). State Street tend to have the highest fees of those three.

I can't stress enough to understand and track weights. Owning the S&P and a tech focused ETF will get a large position in AAPL and MSFT. Not that there is anything wrong with that, but it can easily be a percentage that is much larger than you think it is because of their market caps.

Kissed my SPLG shares goodbye. Opportunity cost was about $1 a share (when I factor in the premium I got) or just under 2% from the close price.

Blazin said:

did you look at rolling them?

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No. My scenario was early Dec ramp and then dump on Janeyts speech. Janet fucked me. Shit happens. I'm good with the result. If we continue to ramp for another month I will probably feel differently.

Edit: swapped my cash account to the money market a few months back so I'm getting 5% on my pig pile of cash while I wait for a reentry. Small consolation.

A sad statement on the US.

Seems like a pretty low price for such a company. Pretty nice for the 1000 shares I bought at $6 back in 2020 though.

TJT said:

Seems like a pretty low price for such a company. Pretty nice for the 1000 shares I bought at $6 back in 2020 though.

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They make almost 1% of the steel that china does. That's a lot of steel! Hopefully the DEI program is safe. Japan is known for it's good management of companies, what's to worry about!

Of note, this will be interesting since lots of companies who work/contract for municipalities/states/US have contract clauses about using American products and companies.

I dont see myself making any more trades this year unless something fucky happens so I put together my closed position data for 2023. Not all these trades opened in 2023, but most did.

Total Closed positions = 49
Closed Equity Positions = 28 (57.1%)
Closed Option positions = 18 (36.7%)
Closed Bond Positions = 3 (6.2%)
Total Positions Closed With Gain = 40 (81.6%)
Total Positions Closed With Loss = 9 (18.4%)

A few observations:
Cutting my bad trades short at a 10% loss worked out in my favor in nearly every trade. In a couple of cases the stock rebounded well, but overwhelmingly, this rule worked out to my benefit. In a couple of trades, I just couldn't get a satisfactory read on the price movement (CVS, MMM) and in those cases I always default to cut my losses and walk away. CVS was the right call and it tanked while MMM rebounded nicely. I cannot stress this enough. Set a loss percentage and if a trade goes south and hits that percentage, walk the fuck away. Every. Fucking. Time. If you walk away with 90 or 95% of your investment, you can make up that loss on the next trade, or the one after that. Trying to make up 30, 40 or 50% on the next trade is all but impossible.

A few of my trades for loss were I believe fundamentally sound trades but I fucked up the entry price. Its not about just being right. You have to be right at the correct time and the correct price. I call this the Michael Burry rule. It is difficult to nail all three.

I still believe SPIR is and will be a good company. I love their model. This is a trade where emotion got the better of me. That, combined with the large profit I banked on their SPAC conversion, let me to run with it as long as I did. Ultimately that loss ate up all the profit I made on their SPAC conversion plus another 15 or 20%. Never trade with emotion. Trade what's in front of you.

I end the year with a big pile of cash which is not ideal. It earning 5% while it sits so that takes some of the sting out of it. I truly did not see Powell's comments coming and that cost me those shares which I would have preferred not to lose. Only time will tell if it bites me in the ass and how much it hurts. I don't envision making any significant trades through the end of the year unless something really odd happens so we shall see what the new year brings.

Finally, I have been accused of using this thread as a personal blog. I don't see it that way but who knows. The reason I post is to try to share some knowledge and help people here make some money. I don't do "paper trades". I use my real money. A part of why I post as much as I do is I don't believe anyone should be posting actual trades or trading advice here without backing up their thoughts with legitimate supporting info. This thread isnt a Discord pump and dump. Also, I am not referring to posts like "I like this stock" or "I think this sector is gonna moon". Thats generic. Post away those ideas. On the other hand, if you are gonna post specific trade info "I shorted TSLA at $x.xx" or "I went long the cruise lines and airlines", there might be people inclined to follow you into those trades so you should be willing to show you actually did it.

You might need to zoom in on this as I made the font small so it all fit on a single screen. Ps... Fidelity ATP exporting into Excel makes me happy.