Investing General Discussion

Sanrith Descartes · Jan 11, 2024

Blazin said:
This whole issue is so important to understand, as so many people lack perspective. They say stupid shit like "can the market really keep going up here?" and they don't even think in their head that they are taking a position counter to the devaluing of the dollar, which of course if you asked them that directly they would without hesitation say, "oh yeah the dollar is fucked" yet they can't make the connection between that idea and QQQ going higher...much higher.

MSFT doesn't need to perform 100% better to add another 3 trillion to it's value, the US govt just needs to keep spending. We look at a chart of MSFT and call it "microsoft's performance" but really we are just looking at the dollars performance up side down.

Correct and hundreds of years of history shows us that for profit corporations in a capitalistic system will outperform "stores of value" . That is what I mean by, once the adoption phase is over bitcoin will likely simply track the inflation of the dollar or maybe inflation of all major currencies aggregated in some manner. So it doesn't "create wealth" but it may provide protection for idle money against inflation. But should we really have a bunch of idle assets? We already have excellent hedges against inflation in the form of stocks and real estate, they have done an excellent job in this regard. The thing that hasn't worked is holding the dollar and it's unlikely to work int he future. So sure if you are a person who only wants to stuff money in the mattress I would tell that person buy gold/silver and bitcoin then.

I think the key takeaway here is investors need to mentally disconnect what they "want" to happen economically vs what is "going" to happen economically. What I "want" is for Congress to unfuck our economy and reverse the destruction of the dollar. As an investor though, I know there is zero chance of this happening and I need to make my plays accordingly.

Blazin · Jan 11, 2024

THe govt hates you and it is actively seeking to destroy your past efforts your only defense is to not hold cash. You work and are paid in dollars, you need to take those dollars and put them into some other form to protect that effort that you put in, so it can be traded for other goods and services in the future.

THis dynamic is why bonds are really not a good idea there is no way to beat the govt wealth sucking machine buying an instrument of govt debt. They are however better than cash, today's lesson is over. CASH BAD! That does not mean money market is "cash" though we may use that term. MM funds are just very short term debt, when I'm saying cash I mean any liquid holding of dollars earnings less than the rate of inflation.

Sanrith Descartes · Jan 11, 2024

Mist · Jan 11, 2024

Blazin said:
THe govt hates you and it is actively seeking to destroy your past efforts your only defense is to not hold cash. You work and are paid in dollars, you need to take those dollars and put them into some other form to protect that effort that you put in, so it can be traded for other goods and services in the future.

THis dynamic is why bonds are really not a good idea there is no way to beat the govt wealth sucking machine buying an instrument of govt debt. They are however better than cash, today's lesson is over. CASH BAD! That does not mean money market is "cash" though we may use that term. MM funds are just very short term debt, when I'm saying cash I mean any liquid holding of dollars earnings less than the rate of inflation.

The system encouraging people to invest their cash in either capital assets to improve their lives or businesses to generate money, or invest it the market, rather than incentive them to hold assets in cash, could arguably be considered a great strength of the system.

If holding cash was the best thing to do with your money, no one would take risks or build anything. Velocity of money is the most important thing for an healthy economy.

So, working as (mostly) intended.

Blazin · Jan 11, 2024

Mist said:
The system encouraging people to invest their cash in either capital assets to improve their lives or businesses to generate money, or invest it the market, rather than incentive them to hold assets in cash, could arguably be considered a great strength of the system.

If holding cash was the best thing to do with your money, no one would take risks or build anything. Velocity of money is the most important thing for an healthy economy.

So, working as (mostly) intended.

This is true, has been an issue in high saver nations like Japan. It would be the death of an economy if people just started stuffing their wealth into coffee cans. So it may make us feel secure but it's a pretty horrible financial decision.

Flobee · Jan 11, 2024

Its going to be interesting to see how much of this they still need to settle. Apparently they have until 6PM EST tomorrow to get today's inflows backed by custodied BTC. I don't think there is public knowledge about how much they are holding already, but I do know there are only around 1.2 million BTC (~$55b) circulating on exchanges in liquid supply. They took a big chunk out of that just today. Couple more days like this and number is going to have to go up.

https://x.com/EricBalchunas/status/1745546235069481360?s=20

EDIT: It will become obvious very quickly if they're playing paper BTC games

Sanrith Descartes · Jan 11, 2024

Flobee said:
Its going to be interesting to see how much of this they still need to settle. Apparently they have until 6PM EST tomorrow to get today's inflows backed by custodied BTC. I don't think there is public knowledge about how much they are holding already, but I do know there are only around 1.2 million BTC (~$55b) circulating on exchanges in liquid supply. They took a big chunk out of that just today. Couple more days like this and number is going to have to go up.

https://x.com/EricBalchunas/status/1745546235069481360?s=20

View attachment 508780

EDIT: It will become obvious very quickly if they're playing paper BTC games

Sucking all that liquidity out of the BTC market can lead to some real ugliness when the Asians decide overnight to play fuck fuck games.

Arden · Jan 11, 2024

I'm invested in several of the larger BTC mining companies. Hoping a liquidity vacuum will have a positive effect on miners.

Blazin · Jan 11, 2024

Arden said:
I'm invested in several of the larger BTC mining companies. Hoping a liquidity vacuum will have a positive effect on miners.

You want to be in miners with the halving ?
I don’t think there is a liquidity vacuum , in the chart he just posted it’s a few Billion , out of 40b traded everyday . Why do people keep thinking this is some massive change to the market ?

and a good part of todays volume just moved out of greyscale , guys are going to kill me with the ignoring of the obvious

Arden · Jan 11, 2024

Blazin said:
You want to be in miners with the halving ?
I don’t think there is a liquidity vacuum , in the chart he just posted it’s a few Billion , out of 40b traded everyday . Why do people keep thinking this is some massive change to the market ?

and a good part of todays volume just moved out of greyscale , guys are going to kill me with the ignoring of the obvious

Wasn't planning on riding the miners through the halving. I realize they have a limited lifespan. My plan was to stay in them long enough to get an amplified bump from the rise in BTC price after the ETFs, then sell in a month or so and rotate that money elsewhere- probably to FBTC, but maybe some trad stuff, depending on how things look then. But, like I said, I definitely welcome criticism/insight from more experienced traders.

TBH, I sold all my GBTC and ETHE just prior to the ETFs after I found out Grayscale's fee was 1.5%, which is awful. I bought into GBTC at around $9 and sold at $39, so it was a pretty lucrative trade. I wanted to stash those funds somewhere where they still had BTC exposure. The only thing I could think of was miners and MicroStrategy.

Only after I bought did it occur to me that both miners and MicroStrategy could actually get hit from other people who had been stashing funds there for BTC exposure but then planned to sell after the ETFs launched in order to sink those funds into the ETFs.

I could have fucked up /shrug. I think right now the jury is still out.

Gravel · Jan 11, 2024

Blazin said:
This is true, has been an issue in high saver nations like Japan. It would be the death of an economy if people just started stuffing their wealth into coffee cans. So it may make us feel secure but it's a pretty horrible financial decision.

No worries, we can just repost that image I think Jysin posted the other day where debt numbers came in like 3x higher than expected.

Mist · Jan 11, 2024

Sanrith Descartes · Jan 11, 2024

The Bitcoin ETF wars begun they have.

Arden · Jan 11, 2024

Mist said:

Not very forward-thinking for a company named Vanguard.

Gravel · Jan 11, 2024

Seems like a weird stance to take, to completely shut yourself out from a financial instrument.

Had they said "we currently have no plans but are open to it possibly in the future if x, y, or z" happens, that would make more sense.

Captain Suave · Jan 11, 2024

Gravel said:
Seems like a weird stance to take, to completely shut yourself out from a financial instrument.

“Our perspective is that these products do not align with our offer focused on asset classes such as equities, bonds, and cash, which Vanguard views as the building blocks of a well-balanced, long-term investment portfolio”

One place you won't find a bitcoin ETF: Jack Bogle's Vanguard

Vanguard said it will not launch a bitcoin ETF, even as its chief rival BlackRock debuted a fund on Thursday.

www.cnbc.com

"a Vanguard customer service representative said bitcoin ETFs were not available on the platform because they were "highly speculative," "unregulated" and didn't fit with the company's long-term investing philosophy. The representative noted that the platform didn't allow other kinds of investments, such as leveraged ETFs. "

Vanguard won't offer spot bitcoin ETFs, says high volatility is bad for generating long-term returns

As trading of spot bitcoin funds got off to a first day of trading in the U.S., Vanguard users were not able to participate.

www.theblock.co

Sanrith Descartes · Jan 12, 2024

Captain Suave said:
“Our perspective is that these products do not align with our offer focused on asset classes such as equities, bonds, and cash, which Vanguard views as the building blocks of a well-balanced, long-term investment portfolio”

One place you won't find a bitcoin ETF: Jack Bogle's Vanguard

Vanguard said it will not launch a bitcoin ETF, even as its chief rival BlackRock debuted a fund on Thursday.

www.cnbc.com

"a Vanguard customer service representative said bitcoin ETFs were not available on the platform because they were "highly speculative," "unregulated" and didn't fit with the company's long-term investing philosophy. The representative noted that the platform didn't allow other kinds of investments, such as leveraged ETFs. "

Vanguard won't offer spot bitcoin ETFs, says high volatility is bad for generating long-term returns

As trading of spot bitcoin funds got off to a first day of trading in the U.S., Vanguard users were not able to participate.

www.theblock.co

So unlike Jaime Dimon, Vanguard didn't do a flip flop on crypto. It's sort of refreshing to see a financial institution actually stick to their position even if it means not making as much money.

Blazin · Jan 12, 2024

Sanrith Descartes said:
So unlike Jaime Dimon, Vanguard didn't do a flip flop on crypto. It's sort of refreshing to see a financial institution actually stick to their position even if it means not making as much money.

The fact that vanguard is not for profit is a likely factor

Falstaff · Jan 12, 2024

Sanrith Descartes said:
So unlike Jaime Dimon, Vanguard didn't do a flip flop on crypto. It's sort of refreshing to see a financial institution actually stick to their position even if it means not making as much money.

There's always time to flip flop

Sanrith Descartes · Jan 12, 2024

Blazin said:
The fact that vanguard is not for profit is a likely factor

I didn't realize Vanguard was a not for profit. Crazy.

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