Arden
Blackwing Lair Raider
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You could always talk to a tax professional. I get not wanting to spend money on one, but if you are talking about a pretty big sum of money, it's probably worth getting professional advice.
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Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
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Guest, it's time once again for the massively important and exciting FoH Asshat Tournament!
Go here and give us your nominations!Who's been the biggest Asshat in the last year? Give us your worst ones!
You could always talk to a tax professional. I get not wanting to spend money on one, but if you are talking about a pretty big sum of money, it's probably worth getting professional advice.
ToeMissile
Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
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This, and even though your coworkers haven't steered you wrong so far, I would make sure to at a minimum do your own research to confirm. But like Arden is saying, for a larger amount a professional can definitely save your ass.
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Blazin
Creative Title
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Bought a few times cost basis around 170, don't plan on buying anymore at this time. I won't be buying any more equities other than special situations until we get some cooling off.Blazin you been doubling down on SNOW at these latest prices or do you tend to buy in all at once and sit? UI briefly hit green for me Friday at my 118ish cost basis.
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Blazin
Creative Title
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I'm up almost 100% on my bitcoin ETF, this is where it's very hard to not sell when you make that kind of return so quickly. I'm going to hold on though. I really do want to hold it for 10 years if for no other reason to be able to see how it does against S&P over that period.
If I had a million of it I think I'd probably say forget that and sell but it's only a few % of net worth so its not going to hurt me going to zero but could be pretty nice helper if it goes up 1000%. I wanted to get to 5% holding but was a little slow on the legging in I thought the corrective period would last a few more weeks than it did so didn't get there, I may go ahead and get it to that level if we get a correction.
If I had a million of it I think I'd probably say forget that and sell but it's only a few % of net worth so its not going to hurt me going to zero but could be pretty nice helper if it goes up 1000%. I wanted to get to 5% holding but was a little slow on the legging in I thought the corrective period would last a few more weeks than it did so didn't get there, I may go ahead and get it to that level if we get a correction.
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Flobee
Vyemm Raider
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I think this approach is really smart and will be mimic'd by a lot of institutional investors. The volatility and lack of correlation with traditional markets give Bitcoin price exposure a ton of value to more conservative portfolios. There is quite a bit of research on this comparing downside risk vs its outsized return potential. I expect Bitcoin ETFs to be a part of every pension fund, insurance fund, endowments, etc.
I remember seeing a really well made calculator created for this exact purpose where you can give it a traditional portfolio and it will return with what performance would look like at various % allocations to Bitcoin over various time periods but I'm having trouble finding it again. I'll add it here if I can find it. Spoiler'd article goes over the basics though if anyone is interested.
Bitcoin Is 'Unique' Among Investment Assets, Says Fidelity - Decrypt
New research from Fidelity shows Bitcoin is uniquely decoupled from the movement of other asset classes.
decrypt.co
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The_Black_Log Foler
PalsCo CEO - Stock Pals | Pantheon Pals
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So I came to an epiphany the other day and I know most of you will be like “ya no shit” so bear with me.
Right now I have 300 shares of RKLB to hold for 20 years. I have 10 shares of SNOW and 10 shares of UI. UI products I’m a huge fan of and believe in. SNOW I’m following similar to Blazin’s strategy of watching their YoY revenue and it ending up being a 5 year hold if revenue stays up.
However it kinda it me - I can buy into a stock right now that I think will explode over the next 5, 10, 15 years. However, that stock may not explode till the last few years of that time horizon. Meanwhile my opportunity cost is I’m missing out on almost a guaranteed return of say 7-10% in a sp500 fund in the years these individual stocks are toiling with zero growth or volatility before they take off.
So I guess really my expectation would be that I should evaluate that these individual stocks should increase by % percentage on a specific time horizon then compare it with the alternative, say SPY for example. Does that make sense?
It seems like this gets into the territory of “timing when to buy” to only have your money in these stocks for as little time as possible before they take off.
Any thoughts or insights into this? I think I’m starting to see why people say it’s so hard to beat the sp500.
Right now I have 300 shares of RKLB to hold for 20 years. I have 10 shares of SNOW and 10 shares of UI. UI products I’m a huge fan of and believe in. SNOW I’m following similar to Blazin’s strategy of watching their YoY revenue and it ending up being a 5 year hold if revenue stays up.
However it kinda it me - I can buy into a stock right now that I think will explode over the next 5, 10, 15 years. However, that stock may not explode till the last few years of that time horizon. Meanwhile my opportunity cost is I’m missing out on almost a guaranteed return of say 7-10% in a sp500 fund in the years these individual stocks are toiling with zero growth or volatility before they take off.
So I guess really my expectation would be that I should evaluate that these individual stocks should increase by % percentage on a specific time horizon then compare it with the alternative, say SPY for example. Does that make sense?
It seems like this gets into the territory of “timing when to buy” to only have your money in these stocks for as little time as possible before they take off.
Any thoughts or insights into this? I think I’m starting to see why people say it’s so hard to beat the sp500.
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Loser Araysar
Chief Russia Reporter. Stock Pals CEO. Head of AI.
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Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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What you're skirting around here is Modern Portfolio Risk.
Essentially, there are two risk factors associated with a stock; the risk to the company itself, and the risk to the total market. The goal of diversifying your portfolio is to eliminate as much company risk as possible and be left with market risk. To do that, you need to accumulate stocks that have as little correlation as possible (e.g. two energy sector stocks will likely move together, so they're not providing very much diversification). Generally you're looking at around 15 different companies to provide enough diversity in the portfolio to only be left with market risk.
I'm probably doing a shit job of explaining it because I went to business school 15 years ago and the only thing I remember about it is memorizing that ridiculous formula and calculating it out with 15 companies on a test.
While you can absolutely hit on a single company, you're also massively exposed to the risk to that company (see my comment the other day about having a significant portion of your portfolio in the company you work for). This is why broad market index funds are the best fit for 99% of people.
But you can read more here:
Portfolio Variance: Definition, Formula, Calculation, and Example
Portfolio variance is the measurement of how the actual returns of a group of securities making up a portfolio fluctuate.
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Khane
Got something right about marriage
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Blazin has already commented on this several times throughout the life of this thread in a manner that is easy to understand and verify.
Compare returns over a long time horizon between the S&P 500 vs the top X companies within the S&P 500.
Compare returns over a long time horizon between the S&P 500 vs the top X companies within the S&P 500.
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The_Black_Log Foler
PalsCo CEO - Stock Pals | Pantheon Pals
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Blazin
Creative Title
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Just need to hold 200d, definitely a day of market saying fine rates higher for longer. A weekly close of IJS below 200d would be concerning to me but it also just means we continue in the box we've been in for years. Will cross that bridge when we/if we come to it. What I'm seeing right now is small caps trading above their 200d moving average for a longer period than any previous attempt in the last few years. LOnger we stay above it the more relevant it becomes.
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Zzen
Potato del Grande
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Zzen
Potato del Grande
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Think the higher for longer means small cap rotation is delayed? Looks like bull flags on the weekly and monthly charts to me, but my crayon drawing, I mean TA skills are still developing.
Feels like it’s a spring that’s coiled and ready to explode, but maybe that’s just what I want to see
Feels like it’s a spring that’s coiled and ready to explode, but maybe that’s just what I want to see
Blazin
Creative Title
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well look at february of 2023 was a very similar set up and it just couldn't get it done. Someday it's going to break out of this box and the longer its in the bigger the move is going to be when it does.Think the higher for longer means small cap rotation is delayed? Looks like bull flags on the weekly and monthly charts to me, but my crayon drawing, I mean TA skills are still developing.
Feels like it’s a spring that’s coiled and ready to explode, but maybe that’s just what I want to see
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Zzen
Potato del Grande
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Just another lesson in patience, I suppose. Like you said, this is the catch up trade, so there are some weak hands to shake out at this table.
Pretty nice closing action at least. Must have trapped a few more
Blazin
Creative Title
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I knew it wasn't going to hit early because starting the year it became everyone's play wanting to be long smallcaps. Lots of that hot air has come out while we consolidate, more and more "stay away from small caps" from money managers.Just another lesson in patience, I suppose. Like you said, this is the catch up trade, so there are some weak hands to shake out at this table.
Pretty nice closing action at least. Must have trapped a few more
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