Investing General Discussion

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Zzen

Zzen

Potato del Grande
2,887
3,589
Blazin said:
I knew it wasn't going to hit early because starting the year it became everyone's play wanting to be long smallcaps. Lots of that hot air has come out while we consolidate, more and more "stay away from small caps" from money managers.
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I love the play. The rally has to spread out at some point.

Didn’t want the train to leave the station before I got on board, but a day like today gives you some hindsight bias about having wanted to wait.

Ah well, like you said, time to get our turtle on 🐢
 
Burnem Wizfyre

Burnem Wizfyre

Log Wizard
12,326
21,426
I’ve thought about buying some TSLA, seems like a good time to get in on it but the crazies fucking hate Elon for buying Twitter and seem hell bent on ruining him.

Any thoughts?
 
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Jysin

Jysin

Ahn'Qiraj Raider
6,458
4,345
You’ve also got the added pressure on the consumer who are being squeezed by debt and inflation. With borrowing costs increased, you don’t have consumers lining up with cheap Covid bucks to purchase new vehicles.

Another major factor is the realization of extreme depreciation in the EV market. No one wants used EVs over a certain age and the values absolutely plummet. There’s been a bit of a shift back towards traditional ICE.

There are plenty of articles of gearheads, used sales figures, and consumers bitching about these issues all over the place currently.
 
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Rod-138

Rod-138

Trakanon Raider
1,183
966
Funny how now that Tesla makes money and has real demand for the vehicles, the stock bombs.

before it was subsidies, ev credits, and hope and change fueling a mega rally of what could be. Now it’s like, oh, this is it!

I’ve bought the dip for people long term and look dumb so far. I also sold all BA. Sounds like a no brainer, but it actually had an awesome recovery until more parts started flying off of it.

my philosophy is that a brand can become so toxic, like Disney or Pfizer, that a possibility arises it just won’t recover. Hopefully Tesla doesn’t end up there
 
Rod-138

Rod-138

Trakanon Raider
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I know you need to buy at its scariest point, but these mother fuckers have witnesses killing themselves in the parking lot and shit (allegedly) When a company is looking this bad, it’s a tough buy. This is 80s movie plot stuff
 
  • 1Worf
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Flobee

Flobee

Vyemm Raider
2,674
3,072
Rod-138 said:
I know you need to buy at its scariest point, but these mother fuckers have witnesses killing themselves in the parking lot and shit (allegedly) When a company is looking this bad, it’s a tough buy. This is 80s movie plot stuff
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Not saying you should buy BA, but this is exactly why its so hard to buy things at the bottom. It -always- feels that way, which is exactly why its a bottom. Markets are psychological
 
TJT

TJT

Mr. Poopybutthole
<Gold Donor>
42,744
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Buying at the red always feels like shit but its turned out well for me so far. Just gotta suck it up when you know its the right buy.
 
Araysar

Loser Araysar

Chief Russia Reporter. Stock Pals CEO. Head of AI.
<Gold Donor>
80,162
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Burnem Wizfyre said:
I’ve thought about buying some TSLA, seems like a good time to get in on it but the crazies fucking hate Elon for buying Twitter and seem hell bent on ruining him.

Any thoughts?
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Major driver of TSLA stock price wasn't EVs, car sales or any other set of typical performance metrics for automobile companies.

For the last few years it has been a barometer of Elon's genius because he has nothing else that's publicly traded. SpaceX and Twitter are.both private.

People investing into TSLA for past few years were investing into Elon"s technological potential through TSLA, rather than the cars themselves.

Elon has been checked out of TSLA for close to 2 years now, since he bought Twitter and people are noticing. TSLA is still selling cars but there are no exciting developments coming out of that company.

Plus the current EV headwinds that other mentioned.

I wouldn't buy now, it's going down awfully fast and probably will keep going down to 110-120. Maybe it will find support there. Back on .Monday, I said in Stock Pals chat that TSLA will keep heading down and be in 160s in a couple of weeks. Well, it took less than 1 week.
 
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C

Creslin

Trakanon Raider
2,503
1,151
Tesla is still trading at 3x the pe of a pure car company. You would really have to believe in their growth story being stronger than msft, meta, Goog etc to be a buyer even now.
 
Blazin

Blazin

Creative Title
<Nazi Janitors>
6,954
36,159
I'm buying TSLA, would disclose it's only a 100 shares so far so take that for what it's worth. I do plan on buying more. I see no reason to buy at these levels if you think it's a car company. If it stays "just a car company" buying at these levels could be a disaster. We are at the stage of doubt just like prior to 3 launch that it can grow. Elon promises big and is often early this can lead to the impatient losing patience. TSLA is another company that I was interested in from the IPO and told my wife I felt it could really be a great investment back near $20/share a ton of splits ago, so probably low single digits. I was too impatient and then become too cautious to "chase" it and did idiotic things like "look at the PE!"

I think the EV space is going to be in for some pain and I think stock price could continue to go down. Will it be lower a decade from now? I'm willing to put my money on the line it will be substantially higher.

I kind of hope it does go down thus the only 100 shares. If we can get into the 100-145 range I'll probably be buying about $80k worth. Had someone ask me recently if they should buy (was $173 at the time I think) and I told them no, because I know they are looking at it as a trade something they want to sell next month, this summer etc and there is nothing about the chart saying this would be a good buy here.

If you want it as a trade, much safer to wait for it to show some strength and trend change than try to catch a bottom.
 
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Foler

The_Black_Log Foler

PalsCo CEO - Stock Pals | Pantheon Pals
<Gold Donor>
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Araysar said:
Major driver of TSLA stock price wasn't EVs, car sales or any other set of typical performance metrics for automobile companies.

For the last few years it has been a barometer of Elon's genius because he has nothing else that's publicly traded. SpaceX and Twitter are.both private.

People investing into TSLA for past few years were investing into Elon"s technological potential through TSLA, rather than the cars themselves.

Elon has been checked out of TSLA for close to 2 years now, since he bought Twitter and people are noticing. TSLA is still selling cars but there are no exciting developments coming out of that company.

Plus the current EV headwinds that other mentioned.

I wouldn't buy now, it's going down awfully fast and probably will keep going down to 110-120. Maybe it will find support there. Back on .Monday, I said in Stock Pals chat that TSLA will keep heading down and be in 160s in a couple of weeks. Well, it took less than 1 week.
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They did announce bringing back the roaster just recently though? I mean that’s pretty niche though similar to cybertruck so I don’t see it moving public sentiment on them much.
 
Araysar

Loser Araysar

Chief Russia Reporter. Stock Pals CEO. Head of AI.
<Gold Donor>
80,162
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Foler said:
They did announce bringing back the roaster just recently though? I mean that’s pretty niche though similar to cybertruck so I don’t see it moving public sentiment on them much.
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yeah but who gives a fuck about the roadster. its not technological innovation. might as well announce a limited set of NFTs
 
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Palum

Palum

what Suineg set it to
26,556
41,372
EVs are still only viable mass market as a government subsidy program. The economics don't make sense aside from essentially coach building exotics where who cares. Tesla was always a hype growth stock and once free money dries up not even government mandates can solve the issue that they're just too expensive and not practical for average consumers.

There probably is a market segment for them that could have naturally developed slower over time, but since they went the hype burnout tech co route here we are.
 
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Ossoi

Ossoi

Potato del Grande
<Rickshaw Potatoes>
17,717
8,757
Burnem Wizfyre said:
I’ve thought about buying some TSLA, seems like a good time to get in on it
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What makes you think now is a "good time"?

Are you experienced in active investing? What other investments do you have? How much are you planning to invest? Would you potentially need the cash on a short term horizon, and how much would it hurt if you did need the cash and the holdings were down significantly?

The most important question is how confident are you that investing in TSLA would be a better use of your money than an index fund?

Gravel said:
This is why broad market index funds are the best fit for 99% of people.
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Blazin

Blazin

Creative Title
<Nazi Janitors>
6,954
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Palum said:
EVs are still only viable mass market as a government subsidy program. The economics don't make sense aside from essentially coach building exotics where who cares. Tesla was always a hype growth stock and once free money dries up not even government mandates can solve the issue that they're just too expensive and not practical for average consumers.

There probably is a market segment for them that could have naturally developed slower over time, but since they went the hype burnout tech co route here we are.
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I agree that slower growth for TSLA unit sales would have been better, sales got juiced and now it's going to be hard to keep any momentum. My worry is that they will exhaust the demand of the people who want and have the means and sales won't just slow but fall of a cliff. Rich people in suburbs love teslas and adoption beyond that begins to creep in all sorts of obstacles. However, I think Tesla knows this. They are no where near ready to sit back and enjoy the show, innovation has to accelerate they are not able to coast. And that doesn't mean selling more, they have to disrupt. A cheaper car is a must. I think they need a structured plan to deal with the secondary market. They need to grow non vehicle revenue substantially. They aren't apple who can fuck around for 10 years and produce nothing new sitting on mountains of cash.

Just a year or two ago everyone thought they were going to have to share the EV space, now fast forward it's clear that's not true but now people question the entire market. Only way we can know if it might be a good time to buy is the number of reasons we can come up with it not to be. I'm trying not to buy anything that I can't easily articulate the reasons that you shouldn't and those reasons should be well understood and pervasive. ie Disney

I hate that company so god damn much, then I started seeing everyone around me agreeing. One misstep after the next, fucking morons. Except one thing, Disney was here before me and will be here long after I'm gone. So I bought, because their fuckery seemed to have reached a zenith of retardation. That was 40% ago, has the company turned it around? Nope just negativity reached a peak. Stock prices weigh sentiment, many factors effect sentiment . TSLA hate is nearing a point that it becomes obvious "they are toast" and I'll bet my money that people are wrong...again.
 
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