Investing General Discussion

Blazin · Mar 22, 2024

Jysin said:
Blazin
Been saying this for some time in my trade circles. The only way out of the debt problem is to inflate it away.

Makes sense on a government level, corporate level, as well as personal level. It just absolutely fucks anyone sitting in cash. I wish I had thrown more into hard assets like houses & land in March 2020. I too severely underestimated the money printing.

It's a pretty scary thing, you see the tight rope being walked and that makes you want to be cautious and take less risk, but that same instinct could end up hurting you more. It is very counterintuitive. And of course the solution can't be to throw caution to the wind. High liquidity environments result in malinvestment and there will certainly be a lot of wealth destruction even in the positive outcome scenario (positive for the S&P anyway, RIP middleclass)

For me, it's saying no to debt instruments. THey are death, capital needs to be working in productive and hard assets. I hope this thread helps people, myself included, see through the mist and make good decisions for the coming decade. It's not going to be easy, but turtling in cash isn't likely to be the answer.

Daidraco · Mar 22, 2024

Blazin said:
see through the mist

Foler · Mar 22, 2024

Cathy always one step ahead!

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Jysin · Mar 22, 2024

NVDA weekly RSI of 91. What could possibly go wrong?

Burnem Wizfyre · Mar 22, 2024

Blazin said:
It's a pretty scary thing, you see the tight rope being walked and that makes you want to be cautious and take less risk, but that same instinct could end up hurting you more. It is very counterintuitive. And of course the solution can't be to throw caution to the wind. High liquidity environments result in malinvestment and there will certainly be a lot of wealth destruction even in the positive outcome scenario (positive for the S&P anyway, RIP middleclass)

For me, it's saying no to debt instruments. THey are death, capital needs to be working in productive and hard assets. I hope this thread helps people, myself included, see through the mist and make good decisions for the coming decade. It's not going to be easy, but turtling in cash isn't likely to be the answer.

I sat on the sidelines for to long, my strategy is to pay attention and see how things go. Also my strategy for investing is follow Nancy Pelosi, I’ve put 10k into NANC, 10k into Intel since they are getting a huge government contract,10k into SBLK because of this bit of information

“Just found something wild. Senator Tommy Tuberville just bought up to $100K of stock in a company called Star Bulk Carriers. Star Bulk Carriers specializes in shipping forestry products. Tuberville sits on the Senate Committee on Forestry,"

Politicians seem to be able to pick the winners better than anyone and that’s good enough for me. I’m not rich the other 30k I have sitting in other index funds like QQQ and Spy.

So how retarded am I? I know a lot but I’d love to know why, the question is for everyone not just Blazin.

Zog · Mar 22, 2024

Burnem Wizfyre said:
I sat on the sidelines for to long, my strategy is to pay attention and see how things go. Also my strategy for investing is follow Nancy Pelosi, I’ve put 10k into NANC, 10k into Intel since they are getting a huge government contract,10k into SBLK because of this bit of information

“Just found something wild. Senator Tommy Tuberville just bought up to $100K of stock in a company called Star Bulk Carriers. Star Bulk Carriers specializes in shipping forestry products. Tuberville sits on the Senate Committee on Forestry,"

Politicians seem to be able to pick the winners better than anyone and that’s good enough for me. I’m not rich the other 30k I have sitting in other index funds like QQQ and Spy.

So how retarded am I? I know a lot but I’d love to know why, the question is for everyone not just Blazin.

Betting on politicians insider trading are probably in your favor... but

I mean, Nancy bought nvda calls, a mag7 stock while Intel was getting billions to try to front run the market.

If you think sblk is the new tsla, who am I to give you investment advice anyways, this is a casino. Tomorrow dwac might go up 400% and gold might fall off a cliff with the new 1.2t gov funding.

Flobee · Mar 22, 2024

Blazin said:
It's a pretty scary thing, you see the tight rope being walked and that makes you want to be cautious and take less risk, but that same instinct could end up hurting you more. It is very counterintuitive. And of course the solution can't be to throw caution to the wind. High liquidity environments result in malinvestment and there will certainly be a lot of wealth destruction even in the positive outcome scenario (positive for the S&P anyway, RIP middleclass)

For me, it's saying no to debt instruments. THey are death, capital needs to be working in productive and hard assets. I hope this thread helps people, myself included, see through the mist and make good decisions for the coming decade. It's not going to be easy, but turtling in cash isn't likely to be the answer.

My approach to this naive as it may be is to hold a lot of cash, because all of the debts I hold are denominated in USD, and then put the rest into what I consider the best inflation sensitive asset. There are plenty of legitimate arguments about what that may be, but its a winning strategy in my mind whether you're holding equities, property, gold, or Bitcoin. You just need something that will run faster than real inflation and enough cash to survive if things go sideways on you. Bonus points because that cash holding can not only buy assets if we see another liquidity event and also allows you to survive a loss of income without selling if asset prices a depressed for a time. If I had no debt (mortgage etc) I would probably hold a lot less cash.

I like to think of this as the most practical way to survive the Weimar style hyperinflation swings which seem to at least not be out of the question as this all plays out. Historically the S&P 500 pretty accurately tracks real inflation is my understanding so its not the worst place to park.

fred sanford · Mar 22, 2024

Anyone here have experience with a financial advisor moving companies? The advisor I've used for the last 4 years is moving from Merrill to LPL. I like my advisors and they've done well for me but I know nothing about LPL Financial. I've been trying to read up on them but for the most part any downside to LPL seems like it's specific to the advisor you're with.

Gravel · Mar 22, 2024

Blazin said:
Jysin I was thinking about this exact guy this morning, just as an anecdote because I got a chuckle thinking about reading a future SVen post at S&P 500 8000 talking about how wrong the market is for constantly doing the wrong thing and going up. He is one of those guys with valid concerns but he is very good at seeing the "bad" and is completely blind to the "good". He ignores significant market forces in favor of others. He is a good example of a guy I don't understand how he makes it all other than profiteering off fear. He has missed every rally for years and years. He will occasionally make a snarky "I bet this stupid rigged market goes up" style posts that he will then point to as his "I was bullish all along" cover.

The government needs inflation, it needs as much inflation as the population will tolerate without uprising. It's the magic answer that is always there that people seem to constantly be blind to. "How is the govt ever going to pay this debt!" We have heard that for generations, and the government has shown time and time again the HOW. They are going to print their way out of it. The govt will borrow money from you today and pay you back with a devalued dollar in the future. It's not all doom and gloom the secret sauce remains keeping economic growth moving forward to help absorb the inflation impact.

I am someone who is very concerned for the future, but I also have learned enough to be careful not to let my concerns run a muck. What if we go through a period of significantly higher GDP growth. Rarely does anyone consider that possibility. Technological change can move things beyond what seems possible from our current perspective. I may not be able to say how that will happen anymore than a man sitting at the birth of the industrial revolution could have. But if it does happen we will be able to look back and go "oh..that's how"

I'll end my random rambling on this, the people who see the inflationary pressures are oft the exact same people afraid of equities. In reality that is the guy you should pass running with all his money to buy more stonks. Instead the guy talking endlessly about govt easing and inflation sits in cash like a god damn moron, as the tide rises and he drowns he'll be yelling "told you this would happen!" as the people who moved to higher ground watch him sink below the surface.

There will always be a place to put money. With that assumption, if you had to make a bet, betting on the US still seems the safest bet. And within the US, the stock market seems to be unparalleled as an option.

Most people will acknowledge that the rich aren't going to suddenly become destitute. They'll pull the levers to make sure they don't.

Palum · Mar 22, 2024

Blazin said:
Inflation has one source, money printing. I'm tempted to implement a rule that anyone who says otherwise gets a thread ban because we can't even begin a rational discussion with people running around saying something the equivalent of the earth is flat. Be better Mist.

...edit I responded before catching up on thread to see others jumping on you for saying stupid shit. Sorry to pile on!

Gravel · Mar 22, 2024

fred sanford said:
Anyone here have experience with a financial advisor moving companies? The advisor I've used for the last 4 years is moving from Merrill to LPL. I like my advisors and they've done well for me but I know nothing about LPL Financial. I've been trying to read up on them but for the most part any downside to LPL seems like it's specific to the advisor you're with.

Like I mentioned when I posted about Edward Jones, be careful of fees when moving stuff. Especially if you're having to buy and sell a different asset (e.g. a mutual fund).

Kiroy · Mar 22, 2024

Blazin said:
Jysin I was thinking about this exact guy this morning, just as an anecdote because I got a chuckle thinking about reading a future SVen post at S&P 500 8000 talking about how wrong the market is for constantly doing the wrong thing and going up. He is one of those guys with valid concerns but he is very good at seeing the "bad" and is completely blind to the "good". He ignores significant market forces in favor of others. He is a good example of a guy I don't understand how he makes it all other than profiteering off fear. He has missed every rally for years and years. He will occasionally make a snarky "I bet this stupid rigged market goes up" style posts that he will then point to as his "I was bullish all along" cover.

The government needs inflation, it needs as much inflation as the population will tolerate without uprising. It's the magic answer that is always there that people seem to constantly be blind to. "How is the govt ever going to pay this debt!" We have heard that for generations, and the government has shown time and time again the HOW. They are going to print their way out of it. The govt will borrow money from you today and pay you back with a devalued dollar in the future. It's not all doom and gloom the secret sauce remains keeping economic growth moving forward to help absorb the inflation impact.

I am someone who is very concerned for the future, but I also have learned enough to be careful not to let my concerns run a muck. What if we go through a period of significantly higher GDP growth. Rarely does anyone consider that possibility. Technological change can move things beyond what seems possible from our current perspective. I may not be able to say how that will happen anymore than a man sitting at the birth of the industrial revolution could have. But if it does happen we will be able to look back and go "oh..that's how"

I'll end my random rambling on this, the people who see the inflationary pressures are oft the exact same people afraid of equities. In reality that is the guy you should pass running with all his money to buy more stonks. Instead the guy talking endlessly about govt easing and inflation sits in cash like a god damn moron, as the tide rises and he drowns he'll be yelling "told you this would happen!" as the people who moved to higher ground watch him sink below the surface.

So in other words inflation is just another tax. Just deferred. (Or on our children)

Flobee · Mar 22, 2024

Kiroy said:
So in other words inflation is just another tax. Just deferred. (Or on our children)

Take it another step. Same guys that make money out of thin air take half of your money to "build roads". If you can create money from nothing, why have taxes? Monetary system not backed by hard assets is immoral. That's probably another thread entirely though.

Palum · Mar 22, 2024

Flobee said:
Take it another step. Same guys that make money out of thin air take half of your money to "build roads". If you can create money from nothing, why have taxes? Monetary system not backed by hard assets is immoral. That's probably another thread entirely though.

The point of taxes in MMT is control not revenue.

fred sanford · Mar 22, 2024

Gravel said:
Like I mentioned when I posted about Edward Jones, be careful of fees when moving stuff. Especially if you're having to buy and sell a different asset (e.g. a mutual fund).

That was one of the first questions I asked them. Merrill will charge me a fee to transfer things out of my accounts. However, they offered to reimburse me for any fees that result from a transfer.

Unidin · Mar 23, 2024

fred sanford said:
Anyone here have experience with a financial advisor moving companies? The advisor I've used for the last 4 years is moving from Merrill to LPL. I like my advisors and they've done well for me but I know nothing about LPL Financial. I've been trying to read up on them but for the most part any downside to LPL seems like it's specific to the advisor you're with.

The other thing to be careful with is if you had any products in your Merrill accounts that are proprietary or wont transfer to LPL. There may be some assets you'll have to sell then the cash is transferred. That can cause some taxes for you especially with how the market has been up the last few years.

Borzak · Mar 23, 2024

Flobee said:
My approach to this naive as it may be is to hold a lot of cash, because all of the debts I hold are denominated in USD, and then put the rest into what I consider the best inflation sensitive asset. There are plenty of legitimate arguments about what that may be, but its a winning strategy in my mind whether you're holding equities, property, gold, or Bitcoin. You just need something that will run faster than real inflation and enough cash to survive if things go sideways on you. Bonus points because that cash holding can not only buy assets if we see another liquidity event and also allows you to survive a loss of income without selling if asset prices a depressed for a time. If I had no debt (mortgage etc) I would probably hold a lot less cash.

I like to think of this as the most practical way to survive the Weimar style hyperinflation swings which seem to at least not be out of the question as this all plays out. Historically the S&P 500 pretty accurately tracks real inflation is my understanding so its not the worst place to park.

View attachment 521040

When the money in Germany was rapidly inflating the only people that could afford to leave and pay passage on a ship for instance were people that had stuff like gold, silver, and other tangibles cause people knew the cash was soon going to be worth nothing. Not saying that is on the horizon.

Foler · Mar 23, 2024

Blazin said:
It's a pretty scary thing, you see the tight rope being walked and that makes you want to be cautious and take less risk, but that same instinct could end up hurting you more. It is very counterintuitive. And of course the solution can't be to throw caution to the wind. High liquidity environments result in malinvestment and there will certainly be a lot of wealth destruction even in the positive outcome scenario (positive for the S&P anyway, RIP middleclass)

For me, it's saying no to debt instruments. THey are death, capital needs to be working in productive and hard assets. I hope this thread helps people, myself included, see through the mist and make good decisions for the coming decade. It's not going to be easy, but turtling in cash isn't likely to be the answer.

Just looking for a quick clarification. Debt instruments I understand to include - bonds, mortgages, loans, treasuries, etc.

When you say “hard assets” however I’m thinking of real estate, gold, etc (see this investopedia article)

Is that what you mean by hard assets? I’ve seen you advocating for equities (I think?) in a market like this, advising to not completely throw caution to the wind. I just want to understand if my understanding of what you mean by hard assets is correct and where does equities fall into the last paragraph of your post.

thanks

Foler · Mar 23, 2024

fred sanford said:
Anyone here have experience with a financial advisor moving companies? The advisor I've used for the last 4 years is moving from Merrill to LPL. I like my advisors and they've done well for me but I know nothing about LPL Financial. I've been trying to read up on them but for the most part any downside to LPL seems like it's specific to the advisor you're with.

I know this isn’t the question you asked but I want to throw it out there in case you haven’t considered it - maybe it’s worth considering managing your own investments? This is as someone who has been under a AUM financial advisor for some 15ish years now. I only recently started doing my own investments last November, with the help and encouragement of multiple people in this thread such as

Blazin ,

Sanrith Descartes and

Jysin . Ends up it’s not as hard as I thought, granted we are in a bull market. On top of that it’s just been a ton of fun getting into it. I feel like I have a lot more control over my life actually understanding my money and markets. There’s constantly new things to learn too.

Definitely not for everyone though and that’s also been discussed here. Just wanted to throw the idea out there. I feel you on not wanting to switch advisors… If mine left he probably would just retire, at which point I’d just not continue using an advisor.. It’s a very personal relationship and not the kind of thing that’s easy to stomach switching. Best of luck.

Foler · Mar 23, 2024

Burnem Wizfyre said:
I sat on the sidelines for to long, my strategy is to pay attention and see how things go. Also my strategy for investing is follow Nancy Pelosi, I’ve put 10k into NANC, 10k into Intel since they are getting a huge government contract,10k into SBLK because of this bit of information

“Just found something wild. Senator Tommy Tuberville just bought up to $100K of stock in a company called Star Bulk Carriers. Star Bulk Carriers specializes in shipping forestry products. Tuberville sits on the Senate Committee on Forestry,"

Politicians seem to be able to pick the winners better than anyone and that’s good enough for me. I’m not rich the other 30k I have sitting in other index funds like QQQ and Spy.

So how retarded am I? I know a lot but I’d love to know why, the question is for everyone not just Blazin.

Just remember that their trades are made public after a period of time. It’s not instant. Someone here probably knows what that time is or maybe you can find it on unusual whales. Just something to keep in mind - you aren’t necessarily getting into the market at the same time as them.

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