Investing General Discussion

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Gravel

Gravel

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sliverstorm said:
The days aren't evenly spaced in actuality. If I graphed it to include blank space in the calendar year it would look more like this:
View attachment 539654
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I know I read something years ago that basically said almost all of the gains for a year came to about 10 days (on average). And if you miss those 10 days, you basically come out flat or negative. Which is why timing the market becomes incredibly self defeating, and means staying in the market consistently means you hit on those days every time.

Now, I think the last couple years might be outliers now that we get 1-2% swings seemingly every week (or at least every other week). So this may no longer be the case.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Cutlery said:
Is there a point in the natural ebb and flow of ups and downs in this shit where it makes sense to sell off your shit and just sit on cash while you wait for it to bottom out, or is that just chasing ghosts?

Like, I'm down about 5k from my ultimate peak in my IRA, but realistically, I'm still up like 20k, so I'm not worried about it. But let's say it just keeps falling, what's the better strat?

I'm 20 years away from retirement still, but I ain't keen on losing this whole fucking thing, South Park style!

.....aaaaaaaand it's gone.
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Market timing comes up for discussion now and again. Near universal opinion is it's impossible to time and a generally bad idea. If market timing worked we would all do it. Unless you're Nancy Pelosi you can't "know" the tops and bottoms.
 
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C

Creslin

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Market timing does work it just doesn’t work for the vast majority of people but the richest and best traders 100% time the market.

timing the market requires 2 good decisions the first is when to get out and the second is when to get back in and I think the second is often what gets people since on a bigger dip the doom porn tends to get pretty insane and you need to physiologically buy into a market that has maybe just tanked 30% all while the news is blasting that it’s the end times.
 
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Seananigans

Seananigans

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Yeah I’m already out, I was wondering if people had any ideas as to the extent of this pullback.
 
Tmac

Tmac

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Market timing comes up for discussion now and again. Near universal opinion is it's impossible to time and a generally bad idea. If market timing worked we would all do it. Unless you're Nancy Pelosi you can't "know" the tops and bottoms.
Click to expand...

Blazin Blazin seems to time things quite nicely 😭
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Tmac said:
Blazin Blazin seems to time things quite nicely 😭
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Yes and no. He makes moves in and out of the market based on data but he doesn't close everything out and dump everything back in. I consider market timing in the context it was asked "when to dump all my stocks and when to buy back in".

And yes he is quite adept when he does so.

Someone mentioned that the majority of money is made within 10 sessions of the bottom valley and the top peak. Missing either of those by selling early or buying back in late in nearly in all cases produces less alpha than just riding out the downturn.
 
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Cad

Cad

scientia potentia est
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Creslin said:
Market timing does work it just doesn’t work for the vast majority of people but the richest and best traders 100% time the market.

timing the market requires 2 good decisions the first is when to get out and the second is when to get back in and I think the second is often what gets people since on a bigger dip the doom porn tends to get pretty insane and you need to physiologically buy into a market that has maybe just tanked 30% all while the news is blasting that it’s the end times.
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How do you get out if you have been in a long time and have a lot of capital gains? Even if I wanted to sell everything and hold cash for the time being, it would result in absolutely ridiculous taxes that I intend to structure out to minimize taxes in retirement.

I guess in your 401k/roth accounts you could do that since you don't get cap gains on those until you retire/withdraw but how do you do that on taxable accounts?
 
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Zog

Zog

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You should be mimicking institutions.

You are the plankton, they are the whales.

When they buy back in, so should you.
 
Khane

Khane

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Zog said:
You should be mimicking institutions.

You are the plankton, they are the whales.

When they buy back in, so should you.
Click to expand...

This amuses me. Mimick at what latency? At what volume? Do you have a Bloomberg terminal?

Are you just following volumes that require SEC filings?
 
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Zog

Zog

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Big institutions use the 8, 13, 21, 55, 100, 200 and 500 day moving averages.

They will attempt to buy in for each of these pivot points. The covid crash is a recent example you can see where these huge buys came in and eventually bottomed on the 500d.
 
Blazin

Blazin

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Cad said:
How do you get out if you have been in a long time and have a lot of capital gains? Even if I wanted to sell everything and hold cash for the time being, it would result in absolutely ridiculous taxes that I intend to structure out to minimize taxes in retirement.

I guess in your 401k/roth accounts you could do that since you don't get cap gains on those until you retire/withdraw but how do you do that on taxable accounts?
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I sell covered calls, as I mentioned I have stocks that I never sell and its for the reason you mentioned. They are in a taxable account with ridiculous gains that I don't plan on paying taxes on anytime soon. The tax hit would be more than the decline that would be sidestepped.
 
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Khane

Khane

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Zog said:
Big institutions use the 8, 13, 21, 55, 100, 200 and 500 day moving averages.

They will attempt to buy in for each of these pivot points. The covid crash is a recent example you can see where these huge buys came in and eventually bottomed on the 500d.
Click to expand...

So you don't need to mimick because you already have the formula?
 
Cad

Cad

scientia potentia est
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Blazin said:
I sell covered calls, as I mentioned I have stocks that I never sell and its for the reason you mentioned. They are in a taxable account with ridiculous gains that I don't plan on paying taxes on anytime soon. The tax hit would be more than the decline that would be sidestepped.
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Gotcha, makes sense.
 
Zog

Zog

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For the time being, the market is 100% glued to the fomc and rates, inevitably this would be the catalyst institutions are looking for, it was the catalyst they sold the fuck out of the market this past week on.

Macro, fundamentals and technicals should all align where you should be trading, pointing you in the direction.

Macro is the direction, fundamentals are the who and the technicals are the when.
 
Zog

Zog

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Khane said:
So you don't need to mimick because you already have the formula?
Click to expand...

If I was Larry Fink, sure but I don't have that kind of money. I know you're being snarky because you think the market is some crazy complex random chaos but the reality is, the people who move the market don't just randomly buy and sell stocks on the flip of a coin. The need to trade on extremely small time frames is where the chaos is, the longer time frames are not.

If I was wrong, DCA wouldn't work. It will bounce, the only question is when and unless the fed comes out between now and September and cuts rates, the direction will be down until we hit the 200d or the September fomc meeting, assuming they still don't cut and then buckle your seat belts because it's gonna get scary.
 
Khane

Khane

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I don't think the market is random crazy chaos at all. I get amused by people like you, who think institutional investors act purely on algos, instead of information, are hilarious.
 
Seananigans

Seananigans

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Sanrith Descartes said:
Someone mentioned that the majority of money is made within 10 sessions of the bottom valley and the top peak. Missing either of those by selling early or buying back in late in nearly in all cases produces less alpha than just riding out the downturn.
Click to expand...

Uh... well if you're speaking specifically of exiting at a high then finding a re-entry point, as long as your re-entry point is lower than your exit point you objectively come out better, regardless of if you used the money in the meantime or not.

-edit- ignoring tax issues
 
Zog

Zog

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Khane said:
I don't think the market is random crazy chaos at all. I get amused by people like you, who think institutional investors act purely on algos, instead of information, are hilarious.
Click to expand...

Macro, fundamentals and technicals should all align where you should be trading, pointing you in the direction.
Click to expand...

Guess you missed this part.

I'm glad you could eventually agree with me and still remain the better of us. It's quite an accomplishment.
 
C

Creslin

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Seananigans said:
Uh... well if you're speaking specifically of exiting at a high then finding a re-entry point, as long as your re-entry point is lower than your exit point you objectively come out better, regardless of if you used the money in the meantime or not.
Click to expand...

This actually depends alot on tax implications as mentioned above by a couple guys. Triggering a short term capital gain of 20% on an investment and then buying back in 2-3% lower might very well be worse than holding in the higher brackets.

unless you need the money and really for some reason think the economy is on a long term downswing it is not worth day trading, you will probably lose. Now if you are risk averse and sell high because you get worried and then hold in bonds or something until you feel more financially secure and ready to reinvest, go for it but your timeline if you are timing macro trends should usually imo be intending to exit for a year or so and not look back, not for a week or two.
 
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