Investing General Discussion

Borzak

Borzak

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Price of oil has been dropping, been told by numerous people who should know including a large oil CEO that if drops to lower than $60 and stays there for an extended period "odd" things will happen in the oil industry. Not sure but I think they are hinting that in the US the profit to drill sharply gets less and less. More imported oil I guess.

XOM picked up a near trillion dollar worth of oil in Africa for a very small amount that they had to put up front.
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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They way I incorporate this idea is that it's a data point and a strong one. When I'm trying to make a decision I do so against a back drop of "Are we above an upward sloping 200d?" "Are we below a downward or flat 200d?" They are piece of the puzzle that informs an overall decision and the fact they represent Long term trend it's of heavy weight in decision making.

I add a little more complexity in that I like to look at the Moving average stack, when you are in a healthy uptrend they have a look to them, when you are in a waning trend that look changes. So its not just the 200d its the 50d , the 20d the 8 etc. and their relationship to each other.
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Strong healthy trend

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Indecision and weakness

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We're all gonna die...
 
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Burnem Wizfyre

Burnem Wizfyre

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Blazin said:
during that period you could have bought just about anything and done that, all the event did was convince you to take risk.
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In each of those events I didn’t have money tied up into them for more than 2 days, nothing during that time frame could have given me the same return on investment, over the long run sure.
 
Rangoth

Rangoth

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Great points. I appreciate the longer view chart and the big miss depending on entry and exits. Like blazin I use the DMAs heavily as guesses for my support/resistance and trends.

seemed like a clear way to hedge a little on my longer term investments though I’ve never bothered before. Started reading up on it more recently as a way to avoid larger drops. My timeline is no longer “decades” so I am thinking of how to avoid major losses within the next 10 years after seeing it crush my parents who just had the wrong time to retire(And started late in life)
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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Burnem Wizfyre said:
In each of those events I didn’t have money tied up into them for more than 2 days, nothing during that time frame could have given me the same return on investment, over the long run sure.
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I see what your saying but you can make 100% any day even a boring ass market day just trading options. Take a gamble on today's close and easy +100% -100% for a 7hr hold
 
Burns

Burns

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Borzak said:
Price of oil has been dropping, been told by numerous people who should know including a large oil CEO that if drops to lower than $60 and stays there for an extended period "odd" things will happen in the oil industry. Not sure but I think they are hinting that in the US the profit to drill sharply gets less and less. More imported oil I guess.

XOM picked up a near trillion dollar worth of oil in Africa for a very small amount that they had to put up front.
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Wonder how long an extended period of time is. I would assume that if N. American fields slow down too much, it will cause refinery owners to consider retooling (expensive & time consuming) to process imported oil over domestic?

Saudi has tried to kill off US & Canadian fracking before but couldn't seem to hold oil low enough for long enough.
 
Burnem Wizfyre

Burnem Wizfyre

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Blazin said:
I see what you’re saying but you can make 100% any day even a boring ass market day just trading options. Take a gamble on today's close and easy +100% -100% for a 7hr hold
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I understand what you’re saying now, the problem is I’m retarded and haven’t had the motivation to understand options.
 
Blazin

Blazin

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Burnem Wizfyre said:
I understand what you’re saying now, the problem is I’m retarded and haven’t had the motivation to understand options.
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All I was trying to say is that the event gave you the confidence to take risk in a manner you were comfortable. In this situation it worked out. It was a gamble, sometimes gambles pay off. There really was nothing special about that event outside of the fact it enticed people to take a gamble in an area they normally wouldn't have (brought in new participants and gambling with larger sums than they normally would) There was no super secret play there was nothing "happening" outside of people were crowding into a casino. Any day you want that casino is open.
 
Foler

The_Black_Log Foler

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Added AMZN at 175 to my personal portfolio. Now rocking a portfolio of 4 - FXAIX, QQQM, AMZN, RKLB. Joining Blazin Blazin on the long hold with them. I’m honestly not sure what it will take for them to go exponential. I don’t think it’s the same company under Jassy as it was Bezos. Anecdotally it seems like over the years they’ve been trying to throw things against the wall to see what sticks. From my understanding Bezos had a very strong “earn trust” philosophy when it came to customers which is why it was rare to see them cancel products on customers (hi Alexa). Not sure Jassy has that same mindset.
 
Blazin

Blazin

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Just want short term trades right now had ticket open to by the SPY shares and thought you know I'm not going to hold anyway so might as well just take the option trade


...edit and I'm out. This day will now go down history. Slinging calls y'all

It's a good example of how options are rough, they just eat so much of the move. Obviously huge advantage of committing less capital. With options especially 0dte its possible to enter the move correctly then just have them bleed your premium over the next hour.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Took a break today and did a dive into INTC. God what a shitshow. It starts with management. Their cost structure is just insane and mgt does nothing to address it.

Sales drop $25b from '21 to '23 and COGS only drop $3b. That's fucking insanity.

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$54b in sales and their EBITDA is only $9.6B

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They have plenty of cash/equiv on the balance sheet but only $3.6B in receivables. They don't have a AR collection problem.

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LTD is still less than revenue but with the drop in EBITDA the LTD/EBITDA ration skyrocketed. They also took on $10b in LTD last year. When interest rates were highest in decades. STD went from $4b to almost zero, so perhaps they refinanced some STD into LTD but still. with so much cash and equivalents on the balance sheet, why take on so much new LTD at these interest rates. Stupid.

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Yep, rolled over $4b in maturing LTD and then added $7b in new LTD.

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Free Cash flow. In the span of 4 years they went from +21b in free cash flow to -$14b in negative cash flow. How anyone in the C-suite still has a job is astounding. This is why you don't touch this shit stock with a ten foot pole. Upper management is just letting the company continue to sale rudderless into calamity. All while they collect their checks and bonuses.

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tldr: bros dont let bros buy INTC.
 
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