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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Gravel said:
Wow, their balance sheet is a shit show. What the fuck are they even doing?
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INTC has a book value of $120b and a current market cap of $81b.

if they closed the doors today and sold off the assets, paid off the debts, shareholders would reap an additional 50% in value. This is how totally fucked up INTC is under current management. Its work less open than it is closed for good.

1725995630870.png
 
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Foler

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Sanrith Descartes said:
INTC has a book value of $120b and a current market cap of $81b.

if they closed the doors today and sold off the assets, paid off the debts, shareholders would reap an additional 50% in value. This is how totally fucked up INTC is under current management. Its work less open than it is closed for good.

View attachment 545350
Click to expand...
So you’re saying it’s undervalued and we should buy… 🤔🤔
 
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Rangoth

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SPY wanted so badly to breach the 50DMA nearing the end of the day but it absolutely could not do it! Bands are converging 100/200 DMA's are starting to flat line. I think we are nearing a shit or get off the pot moment. Volume was even lower than yesterday as well

I'm still playing that we get a downside movement to that 100. Hope it hits!
 
Blazin

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RECESSION IS UPON US ! COLLAPSING I mean just look at CREDIT MARKETS!
1726060193964.png

Oh my bad, I fell into twitter confirmation bias cesspool there for a second. For those playing along at home this is what a chart of the HYG looks like when we are fearing a recession:
1726060351386.png

I really don't get people, could we be heading into a recession? Sure then watch for the price action that confirms that, WTF is the point of doom and glooming this shit for 3 years. When the first chart starts turning and looking like the second. Then it's time to start saying hey credit markets are showing some distress. Yeah but a twitter post said a guy who knows a guy who use to work at a car dealership told him it's possibly the worst bloodbath they have ever seen. Lower sales than prior to the model T.


Twitter Guy @IknowfinanceYo
BREAKING: FORD dealership of Beavercreek OH forced to lay off Salesman Tim as inventories overflow!
#Marketcrash


Not a knock on you Creslin twitter is overflowing with this shit, it just gets so tiresome. Wish financial twitter would spend more time on data and less on the feels but like everything else it's just engagement farming. LEADLAGREPORT! Few... everyone is fucked.
 
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Rangoth

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For what’s it’s worth, HYG is one of the tickers I watch and sometimes play. It has a massively bearish C:p ratio and it’s been getting stronger recently. Not saying that means 100% recession, but i do think it’s a sign people believe one is looming and are putting themselves in a position to profit from that.
 
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Blazin

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Rangoth said:
For what’s it’s worth, HYG is one of the tickers I watch and sometimes play. It has a massively bearish C:p ratio and it’s been getting stronger recently. Not saying that means 100% recession, but i do think it’s a sign people believe one is looming and are putting themselves in a position to profit from that.
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Yeah man I watch it everyday, and I'm not arguing that it can't turn bearish. I'm pointing out that so far "it hasn't" and there is no reason to front run it. Look at every recent economic downturn and look at HYG leading into it. When it turns we will know it and it shouldn't be ignored. Even the downturn I posted was just the fear of a recession not an actual one. If bond holders start fearing getting paid back things move fast.
 
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Gravel

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Blazin said:
RECESSION IS UPON US ! COLLAPSING I mean just look at CREDIT MARKETS!
View attachment 545458

Oh my bad, I fell into twitter confirmation bias cesspool there for a second. For those playing along at home this is what a chart of the HYG looks like when we are fearing a recession:
View attachment 545459

I really don't get people, could we be heading into a recession? Sure then watch for the price action that confirms that, WTF is the point of doom and glooming this shit for 3 years. When the first chart starts turning and looking like the second. Then it's time to start saying hey credit markets are showing some distress. Yeah but a twitter post said a guy who knows a guy who use to work at a car dealership told him it's possibly the worst bloodbath they have ever seen. Lower sales than prior to the model T.


Twitter Guy @IknowfinanceYo
BREAKING: FORD dealership of Beavercreek OH forced to lay off Salesman Tim as inventories overflow!
#Marketcrash


Not a knock on you Creslin twitter is overflowing with this shit, it just gets so tiresome. Wish financial twitter would spend more time on data and less on the feels but like everything else it's just engagement farming. LEADLAGREPORT! Few... everyone is fucked.
Click to expand...
That doesn't get the views though.

It's why buy and hold an index fund is so hard for most people. Because it's literally too easy. Surely you need someone with credentials you don't understand to invest your money for you, or explain what the markets are going to do. And doom and gloom sells. Someone coming out with a single video saying "the market averages 10% a year, so it's going to go up pretty much 75% of the time" is boring and basically makes for a one off content video that no one will ever engage with, despite it being the truth.

Or, if they wanted to be even more honest, "I have no fucking clue what the market is going to do, because if I did, I'd be insanely rich and I'd never tell you shit because you'd ruin it."
 
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Creslin

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Blazin said:
RECESSION IS UPON US ! COLLAPSING I mean just look at CREDIT MARKETS!
View attachment 545458

Oh my bad, I fell into twitter confirmation bias cesspool there for a second. For those playing along at home this is what a chart of the HYG looks like when we are fearing a recession:
View attachment 545459

I really don't get people, could we be heading into a recession? Sure then watch for the price action that confirms that, WTF is the point of doom and glooming this shit for 3 years. When the first chart starts turning and looking like the second. Then it's time to start saying hey credit markets are showing some distress. Yeah but a twitter post said a guy who knows a guy who use to work at a car dealership told him it's possibly the worst bloodbath they have ever seen. Lower sales than prior to the model T.


Twitter Guy @IknowfinanceYo
BREAKING: FORD dealership of Beavercreek OH forced to lay off Salesman Tim as inventories overflow!
#Marketcrash


Not a knock on you Creslin twitter is overflowing with this shit, it just gets so tiresome. Wish financial twitter would spend more time on data and less on the feels but like everything else it's just engagement farming. LEADLAGREPORT! Few... everyone is fucked.
Click to expand...
Well if you want to try to time a recession you really do need to be reading the tea leaves. By the time the charts start to actually become clear the markets are bottoming.

I should add that my personal portfolio is still 80% long equities with heavy tech so I am not personally super bearish yet but the signs are mounting imo.
 
Blazin

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Creslin said:
By the time the charts start to actually become clear the markets are bottoming.
Click to expand...
That is 100% false, unequivocally false. You could change that from "charts" to "lagging economic data" and at least would be something closer to the mark.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Blazin said:
Twitter Guy @IknowfinanceYo
BREAKING: FORD dealership of Beavercreek OH forced to lay off Salesman Tim as inventories overflow!
#Marketcrash


Not a knock on you Creslin twitter is overflowing with this shit, it just gets so tiresome. Wish financial twitter would spend more time on data and less on the feels but like everything else it's just engagement farming. LEADLAGREPORT! Few... everyone is fucked.
Click to expand...

Monetization of social media accounts drives a lot of this. Its a cancer. Gotta get clicks and eyeballs for those Muskbucks.
 
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Creslin

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Blazin said:
That is 100% false, unequivocally false. You could change that from "charts" to "lagging economic data" and at least would be something closer to the mark.
Click to expand...
Ya you are right the chart you linked would just provide a more clear leading indicator if it flipped, it wouldn’t 100% confirm anything so there would still be time to react since the outcome would still be uncertain.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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So CPI numbers show me nothing to justify a 50 basis point raise so I expect markets to piss off today in a corner.
 
Blazin

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It's being able to discern the difference between this chart and the one following it, when trends wane there is evidence. They tell us when to pay more attention, they tell us when things have changed.
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There are times its cloudy, Feb 2016 is a good example of extreme fuckery. There was so much flashing "trouble" , and there is nothing wrong with sometimes just say I read that wrong I need to get back in the market has shown it backed away from a cliff. If we are too quick to see doom then you end fearing simple pullbacks. Simple pullbacks on charts have different character than pullbacks to be feared. Just watch what price is telling you.

I'm 100% in cash so this is a bear talking to a bull right now. It doesn't matter what side you are on. I'm in cash because it currently suits me, not because everything is flashing sell. SOME things are , LOTS aren't. I don't need to predict the future, I just need to discern the most probable outcome given the evidence in hand. Right now we are in a bullish configuration, the fact we didn't set a new high is a notch on the bear belt, maybe we'll even add a few more notches this week but I'm not trying to be a dick just I know it will help people immensely if they learn to look at the evidence in total of what is and be flexible to change in both directions when that evidence changes, be it today tomorrow next week or next year.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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I have had UPS on my radar for a while now. Finally had an interest in it and decided to spend the time on a deep dive of its financials. They aren't "good". They aren't INTC bad. They aren't bleeding money or anything. But they also aren't healthy. It looks like the entirety of the Covid boom has evaporated. 2023 revenue looks to be perfectly in line with 19 and 20. A continuous progression if 21 and 22 never existed. However, COGS increase doubled compared to that same sales progression. So they gain the standard $6b in sales but instead of it costing $5b in COGS that $6b in sales cost them $10b in COGS.

Covid cost increases, inflation, whatever the fuck you want to call it. Companies experienced large rapid increases in COGS during 21/22. And like baby weight, its hard for them to lose it as their sales get back to a more normal growth rate. Doing so in 2024 and beyond is going to take C-suite decisions to actively address and correct the cost structures. Things like companies dumping real estate if they shifted to more WFH, not like cutting back on cheap coffee and counting paperclips.

Macro views of the indexes are important, but I also like to dig into the financials of the big and influential companies that make up the indexes. They also have a story to tell us.
 
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Creslin

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Sanrith Descartes said:
I have had UPS on my radar for a while now. Finally had an interest in it and decided to spend the time on a deep dive of its financials. They aren't "good". They aren't INTC bad. They aren't bleeding money or anything. But they also aren't healthy. It looks like the entirety of the Covid boom has evaporated. 2023 revenue looks to be perfectly in line with 19 and 20. A continuous progression if 21 and 22 never existed. However, COGS increase doubled compared to that same sales progression. So they gain the standard $6b in sales but instead of it costing $5b in COGS that $6b in sales cost them $10b in COGS.

Covid cost increases, inflation, whatever the fuck you want to call it. Companies experienced large rapid increases in COGS during 21/22. And like baby weight, its hard for them to lose it as their sales get back to a more normal growth rate. Doing so in 2024 and beyond is going to take C-suite decisions to actively address and correct the cost structures. Things like companies dumping real estate if they shifted to more WFH, not like cutting back on cheap coffee and counting paperclips.

Macro views of the indexes are important, but I also like to dig into the financials of the big and influential companies that make up the indexes. They also have a story to tell us.
Click to expand...
this is true of so many companies. Earnings growth in Covid was just not sustainable and even if we don’t enter a down turn we may be entering a period where lots of companies just chop flat on growth but slower than expected growth and the p/es need to price that in.

That’s my current odds on take on this market tbh and the reason I like tech because I think tech has the best chance to still grow earnings at the expected pace.
 
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