Sanrith Descartes
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So what are we going to look like with fund rebalancing for the end of the year? We gonna get a sale of equities to push money into bonds?
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Blazin
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No sir I just checked in with Financial Twitter and wall st we are only ever going up.
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fris
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I'm probably one of the most green investors in this group, so keep this in mind when I ask these questions
I know typically at the end of the year, people sell stocks that they've lost $$ on, "loss harvesting". so stocks that are down will drop more towards the end of the year. so any rebalancing should encourage losers to drop more. given how much things are up right now, will we see much of this this year?
(in joe biden voice), that's my 1st question. #2,
with the talk of reducing regulation and more interest rate cuts on the horizon, why shouldn't we expect stonks to keep going up? I'm thinking that I should be as aggressively invested as possible right now.
I know typically at the end of the year, people sell stocks that they've lost $$ on, "loss harvesting". so stocks that are down will drop more towards the end of the year. so any rebalancing should encourage losers to drop more. given how much things are up right now, will we see much of this this year?
(in joe biden voice), that's my 1st question. #2,
with the talk of reducing regulation and more interest rate cuts on the horizon, why shouldn't we expect stonks to keep going up? I'm thinking that I should be as aggressively invested as possible right now.
Blazin
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i don't believe tax shifting has any significant effect on markets at year end.
Animals spirits are high right now and they can stay high. I don't think this bull run is going to end in the next 12 months, that doesn't mean we don't get pullbacks. In this kind of environment people will treat completely minor pullbacks of 3-7% as being the end of the world.
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tugofpeace
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Blazin
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Is that true historically? ATHs forward returns are better than average. We have about 60 ATHs this year. Which one was ripe for a rug pull? Just this one?
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tugofpeace
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Look at the volatility in the markets the past few years; there seems to be quite a bit more activity than before. Too much scared money floating around, earnings sending stocks up 50% within days, these types of things invite more chaos in my opinion.
I still have PTSD from the past few years notably when interest rate hikes happened. Have never been trusting of the markets since
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Blazin
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This is a feeling not supported by the facts. Our feelings tend to lie to us so its important we balance them with data. You even mention PTSD and it makes the point. Declines scar us, I'm just saying be careful you don't let those feelings be your basis for decision making.
You're correct FOMO and chasing euphoria can result in pain when it fades. People tend to get drawn into investing for the shiny lights "We're all going to be rich!" .
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tugofpeace
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Huh. You don't think the massive money printing we've had since the pandemic has affected market volatility?
That 12 year olds on robinhood are making massive amounts of money isn't indicative of irrational exuberance?
Was it this easy to be profitable in 2018?
I DCA and play it safe generally so I'm not concerned about a crash but it would not surprise me one bit.
Blazin
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Yes I think it has suppressed it some. Volatility has been very low and trending lower. You seem to think it's higher.
I think we are in a state of "Euphoria"
2018 was a tougher year, for me highly profitable because it had more ups and downs. 2017 was like now, 2021 was like now
I don't worry about crashes when we are above an upward sloping long term moving average, if the data changes I'll adjust accordingly. If the market struggles to make a new high , moving averages start to roll over. Credit spreads begin to widen then we talk about crashes. I expect us to have a pullback and that pullback may be quite shallow but could feel horrible for some depending on their positioning.
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Sanrith Descartes
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I had a hunch to play the South Korea drama but missed the bottom on EWY. If it reverses back lower by end of the ay I might grab some for a small gamble.
Sanrith Descartes
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Sanrith Descartes
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This is after Don jr. joined the board of directors today. Imagine what would happen if he joined the board of PLTR.
If you're wondering why PLTR is ripping this morning was I was getting bored and sold some weekly OTM covered calls yesterday.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Kind of like the /pol thread, the sub-threads really didn't take off so everyone just kind of posts investing shit here. The options thread is good for pointing to page one for a primer.
Rod-138
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Just a friendly reminder not to try and outsmart the market. My after tax account I barely touched, as I didn’t want to create gains etc. my SEP I pulled into cash twice this year, trying to avoid big losses and buying the dip. There’s a little more to it than that, but that’s the biggest difference.
After tax @ 50% YTD
SEP @ 14.4% YTD
After tax @ 50% YTD
SEP @ 14.4% YTD
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Blazin
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I tend to post a small write up each month when I'm selling covered calls, handling rolling them etc.
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