Asshat Foler
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Investing General Discussion
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Jysin
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I feel like the "buy gold" story TODAY is the equivalent of the idea of starting to buy SPY / QQQ puts at the lows -20% from the highs.
If you really wanted to hedge, the time to do it is in times of stability / markets at highs when gold is suppressed.
We are still quite far from all of these doomsday YouTuber predictions.
If you really wanted to hedge, the time to do it is in times of stability / markets at highs when gold is suppressed.
We are still quite far from all of these doomsday YouTuber predictions.
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Flobee
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Totally agree in most circumstances. However if we are going to see a monetary realignment then I would argue we've got a long way to go from here. Its worth mentioning that this isn't the sort of thing that one can accurately predict with certainty. Even if this is the current administrations goals (I tend to believe it is as Bessent has been open about it in the past, but its certainly arguable) there is no guarantee that they actually pull it off, and there are countless confounding factors that could affect things.
My main point is I don't think 99% of investors even have this on their radar. If you're all-in on a QQQ dip and no position whatsoever for this distinctly possible outcome, I would argue you're making a mistake.
If we really are shifting to a "multi-polar" world, then it would make sense that assets that don't require trust (can't be sanctioned or stolen) would truly become the reserve assets for global trade. That's Gold and Bitcoin. I'll leave my pitch for why Bitcoin wins in that circumstance for another thread, but if you're holding 0 of these assets its a risk that I believe you should be aware of.
Jysin
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SouthWest Airlines CEO:
09:43 LUV CEO: Seeing a lot of economic weakness primarily on consumer side; Demand has fallen off the fastest we have seen since Covid - CNBC - Source TradeTheNews.com
09:43 LUV CEO: Seeing a lot of economic weakness primarily on consumer side; Demand has fallen off the fastest we have seen since Covid - CNBC - Source TradeTheNews.com
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Asshat Foler
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Going into summer too. Think consumers wallets are too tight to budget vacation? I wonder what percentage of flights are business purposes versus vacation/fun
Sanrith Descartes
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Hindsight is always 20/20. The money makers are the ones who bought gold early last year. Not the ones buying it today at all-time highs.
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Blazin
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General agreement, we have decades long issue that we are now viewing day to day. Nothing can be resolved quickly besides going back to status quo and that is untenable.Blazin what are your thoughts on this?
Current messaging is too chaotic, we need an invisible hand that is steadily and persistently moving things in a new direction, just like it did for decades the other way to get us into this mess.
I would have done tariffs that are incremental and increase on a schedule for years. The funds collected would be spent on onshoring key manufacturing back in the US. I would have presented this as a bill through congress , I would have coupled it with the tax bill.
I'm sure Retardo would counter me saying it's too urgent for that, I would counter Retardo that trigger a deep recession will be counterproductive to the goals. Strong capital investment and recessions don't mix.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Except the idea you are pondering doesn't go far enough. It seems to predict a multi-polar world with an effective crash of the US economy and dollar. If indeed correct, then it doesn't account for the possibility of societal collapse or a large scale (and possibly global) military conflict involving the US after its economy and society are cratering. If it goes that route then most likely gold and BTC are not the things you want to be owning. That would be ammo.
Tldr: your hypothesis seems structured to only account for certain factors to support a gold/BTC based currency future. In your scenario I predict a possibility and probability of severe societal upheaval to go with it.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Could just be fear of getting on any product built by BA and flown by DEI pilots.
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Flobee
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Sure, thats a possibility. Removal of foreign capital from domestic markets would, IMO, be compensated with money printing (in one of its many possible forms) for essentially yield curve control. This could be coordinated globally via a deal (Bretton woods 2.0 etc) peacefully which is my base case, or via conflict and printing is to "pay for the War" ala WW1 and WW2. Its all about probabilities, and being positioned all in on QQQ/SPX in the current environment is not accounting for these probabilities which is my entire point. Stated another way treating the current environment as exactly the same as similar events in the recent past that caused liquidity issues is perhaps unwise, maybe even foolish given the full context of the day.
I'm not saying the world is going to end, buy Gold. I'm saying that the leadership of the world is clearly stating that a restructuring of the global monetary order is underway and Gold/Bitcoin are likely to be central to that reordering. See Bessent's statements on the All-In podcast for example. If we take that at face value then it would make sense to allocate a % of one's portfolio that is equivalent with the % you think that has of happening in a way that reflects the possibility. Thats going to be different for everyone but zero is probably not a good move IMO.
Due to a number of factors that are outside of the scope of this thread I would argue we have a MUCH higher chance of a peaceable agreement being reached by the leading powers than we have at any other time in the past when the restructurings have occurred. Handwaving the entire thesis off with "Buy lead futures" has some merit but is ultimately counterproductive in the context of investing discussions.
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Sanrith Descartes
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I dont see it as counter-productive. It was used as an example of showing that I think your hypothesis stopped at the point where it maximized support for your Gold/BTC acquisition and if taken to a longer conclusion other asset classes might make better choices.
That being said, calling for purchases of gold with it at all time highs seems a horse has already left the barn idea. I'm not saying you are wrong, because we can't know the future. I'm saying that from a probability perspective, owning the US economy presents a better outcome for future gains than dropping all one's investments into Gold/BTC for the vast majority of investors. This is my view.
Only time will tell which of us is correct.
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Flobee
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I don't disagree entirely, its just a matter of time horizon. Long term, IMO, this may be a local top, but its not the top. I'm by no means saying to dump equities and ape into Gold/Bitcoin today, simply saying if your long term portfolio doesn't have exposure then you should perhaps re-evaluate that moving forward. Charts of QQQ/SPX priced in Gold or Bitcoin can be instructive on this.
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Kithani
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In the past 6 months Southwest has announced they are going to stop their open seating and free checked bag policies, essentially making them a crappier version of the traditional big 3 legacy airlines… not sure I am shocked they are seeing a drop off
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Arden
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Agree with this logic. Of course the *best* time to buy btc/gold was last year (or even better, 10 years ago), but it doesn't mean it's a *bad* time to buy now- especially if you are looking medium/long term.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Gravel
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Oof, so much for those "no recession coming." There's no way this quarter is going to be better than Q1.
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Jysin
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Someone's lying:
12:29 (CN) US Pres Trump: Had meeting with China this morning; We've been meeting with China
- Responding to media question about who "they" (China representatives) are, responded it doesn't matter who "they" are
**Earlier: (CN) CHINA FOREIGN MINISTRY: CHINA AND US NOT YET IN TALKS OVER TARIFFS; WILL FIGHT TARIFF WAR IF WE HAVE TO; “To my knowledge, China and the U.S. have not engaged in any consultations or negotiations on tariff issues, let alone reached any agreement" - Source TradeTheNews.com
12:29 (CN) US Pres Trump: Had meeting with China this morning; We've been meeting with China
- Responding to media question about who "they" (China representatives) are, responded it doesn't matter who "they" are
**Earlier: (CN) CHINA FOREIGN MINISTRY: CHINA AND US NOT YET IN TALKS OVER TARIFFS; WILL FIGHT TARIFF WAR IF WE HAVE TO; “To my knowledge, China and the U.S. have not engaged in any consultations or negotiations on tariff issues, let alone reached any agreement" - Source TradeTheNews.com
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