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tugofpeace

tugofpeace

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What is a decent allocation of one's portfolio to gold/btc? Right now I add $2k/month to taxable brokerage, thinking to add maybe $500/month each to gold/btc.
 
Tredge

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I Was Wrong About Bitcoin.
I bought Bitcoin when it was in the single-dollar digits, back when wallets lived on clunky hard drives. Technically, I still own it, but good luck finding that wallet file—pre-online exchange days were a mess. I rode the early hype, but even then I felt it had long term risks that I feel stand today:
  • Cryptography Obsolescence: Quantum computing or other breakthroughs could crack Bitcoin’s encryption. This isn’t imminent, but 10-20 years out, it’s a real risk if quantum tech scales.
  • Regulatory Crackdowns: Governments are friendlier now—US ETF approvals and pro-crypto politicians helped—but the tide could turn. A coordinated global ban or heavy restrictions could gut demand, like China’s 2021 mining crackdown that slashed prices ~50%.
  • Competition: Bitcoin’s tech is dated. Its transaction speed (7 per second) lags behind newer chains like Ethereum or Solana, which process thousands. If a better crypto overtakes Bitcoin’s network effect, it could fade.
  • Market Dynamics: Institutional players like BlackRock, with their Bitcoin ETFs, prop up prices but also add fragility. Mass ETF outflows or a macro shock (recession, debt crisis) could trigger a cascade.
I see a 30-40% chance of a dramatic drop (50% or more) in the next 2-3 years.

Bitcoin’s survived 70-80% crashes before—2011, 2017, 2022’s $69K-to-$16K plunge—so it’s not new. But its resilience, HODL culture, and halving-driven supply cuts keep it buoyant.
70% of Bitcoin hasn’t moved in over a year.

Maybe I’m wrong again. Bitcoin’s defied naysayers for 16 years. But the risks feel heavier than the hype.
 
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Flobee

Flobee

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tugofpeace said:
What is a decent allocation of one's portfolio to gold/btc? Right now I add $2k/month to taxable brokerage, thinking to add maybe $500/month each to gold/btc.
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Thats a purely personal decision which would depend on your confidence/probability for different outcomes. Gold is fairly safe, its a valuable rock so its not risky. Bitcoin is different, its incredibly volatile and you'll likely need to have an understanding of what you're buying or you'll probably panic sell on a big dip
 
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Flobee

Flobee

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Tredge said:
I Was Wrong About Bitcoin.
I bought Bitcoin when it was in the single-dollar digits, back when wallets lived on clunky hard drives. Technically, I still own it, but good luck finding that wallet file—pre-online exchange days were a mess. I rode the early hype, but even then I felt it had long term risks that I feel stand today:
  • Cryptography Obsolescence: Quantum computing or other breakthroughs could crack Bitcoin’s encryption. This isn’t imminent, but 10-20 years out, it’s a real risk if quantum tech scales.
  • Regulatory Crackdowns: Governments are friendlier now—US ETF approvals and pro-crypto politicians helped—but the tide could turn. A coordinated global ban or heavy restrictions could gut demand, like China’s 2021 mining crackdown that slashed prices ~50%.
  • Competition: Bitcoin’s tech is dated. Its transaction speed (7 per second) lags behind newer chains like Ethereum or Solana, which process thousands. If a better crypto overtakes Bitcoin’s network effect, it could fade.
  • Market Dynamics: Institutional players like BlackRock, with their Bitcoin ETFs, prop up prices but also add fragility. Mass ETF outflows or a macro shock (recession, debt crisis) could trigger a cascade.
I see a 30-40% chance of a dramatic drop (50% or more) in the next 2-3 years.

Bitcoin’s survived 70-80% crashes before—2011, 2017, 2022’s $69K-to-$16K plunge—so it’s not new. But its resilience, HODL culture, and halving-driven supply cuts keep it buoyant.
70% of Bitcoin hasn’t moved in over a year.

Maybe I’m wrong again. Bitcoin’s defied naysayers for 16 years. But the risks feel heavier than the hype.
Click to expand...
I have hundreds of posts in the Bitcoin thread addressing each of these points. They're all weak arguments. Specifically "Competition" and "Market Dynamics" show a glaring lack of understanding of the underlying. Quantum will break ALL cryptography so the entire internet will crack under that and a number of resolutions have already been figured out for Bitcoin if that were to happen.

I won't go any further in this thread as its off topic and these are simply your opinions. If my viewpoint is the correct one on Bitcoin, everyone will buy at whatever price makes them comfortable that its here to stay.
 
Haus

Haus

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Foler said:
Going into summer too. Think consumers wallets are too tight to budget vacation? I wonder what percentage of flights are business purposes versus vacation/fun
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I can attest that at least in my industry there's a corporate level push seemingly across every company I have buddies at to only travel when absolutely necessary to close a deal, and otherwise do more on zoom now. Whereas it used to be that they'd open encourage sales people and SEs to be face to face with customers as much as possible. (I remember once I had a trip from Dallas to Arkansas and back in a single day for a 2 hour in person meeting)
 
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Cad

Cad

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Haus said:
I can attest that at least in my industry there's a corporate level push seemingly across every company I have buddies at to only travel when absolutely necessary to close a deal, and otherwise do more on zoom now. Whereas it used to be that they'd open encourage sales people and SEs to be face to face with customers as much as possible. (I remember once I had a trip from Dallas to Arkansas and back in a single day for a 2 hour in person meeting)
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I barely travel for work anymore, used to fly 1-2 times a week. Now it's 1-2 times every 6 months, if that. Everything is by zoom, hearings, depositions, meetings with clients. Do it by zoom and pay $1500 for a mediation or in-person and pay $5k (2-3 people's travel, lodging, meals, etc)...

It's a no-brainer.
 
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Haus

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tugofpeace said:
What is a decent allocation of one's portfolio to gold/btc? Right now I add $2k/month to taxable brokerage, thinking to add maybe $500/month each to gold/btc.
Click to expand...
I'll second what Flobee Flobee said...

Myself, right now outside retirement accounts in the money I "play" with investing I'm at roughly....
  1. 25% in stable interest earning vehicles (making around 4% at the moment. listed below as "savings")
  2. 23% in crypto, with that being a 3:1 ratio of BTC to ETH for the most part
  3. 37% in the stock market (not day trading, more buy and hold ETFs for the most part)
  4. 14% in cash/equivalents (Liquid as listed below)
  5. 1% in precious metals (silver currently)
1745517066361.png


I'm debating taking a good bit from numbers 1 and 4 and putting into 2 and 3 with where the markets are. But also I don't feel like the stock market has really set it's floor yet. I could be wrong, but I still feel like we have at least one more bout of "Trump makes everybody panic" left in us.

I might "invest" a little in more metals, but that's mostly because my relaxing metal-casting hobby has now evolved into me casting things in silver. I have a cache of actual .999 silver rounds as assets, but lately it's been "fun silver" I've been accumulating. I buy lots of .800 range purity silver (jeweler silver, most in scrap lots from eBay) and cast it. Might make myself a new FoH belt buckle in silver next. So essentially indulging my inner mountain dwarf...
1745517653418.png
 
Jysin

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Pretty wild call gamma (SPY 550) today. Especially given there is zero clarity on any trade deals whatsoever.

1745519864621.png
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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Baring something crazy (but always possible), SPY will log its 4th green candle in 5 sessions today. Slow and steady is how we get back on track. Not with giant 10% moves upwards.

And this.

 
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Jysin

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I would argue the last few days has been anything but slow and steady. Hell we were -0.7% on SPY premarket and touched +2% intraday.

Since Monday, we are up 7.5% on S&P 500


I still find his highly dangerous, given no trade deals have been announced and the fallout of the China shipment cliff has a couple weeks to be felt. (No inventory inbound)
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Jysin said:
I would argue the last few days has been anything but slow and steady. Hell we were -0.7% on SPY premarket and touched +2% intraday.

Since Monday, we are up 7.5% on S&P 500


I still find his highly dangerous, given no trade deals have been announced and the fallout of the China shipment cliff has a couple weeks to be felt. (No inventory inbound)
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Its all about perspective. Compared to the +10% candle a little while back this is slow and steady :)

Also there is this. Are they talking or aren't they?

 
Sanrith Descartes

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Look at those candles

1745524188472.png


edit: Damn. 3 straight 300k candles on the QQQ. Volume exploding.

edit 2: Looks like bears tried selling down the ramp into the close and got slapped down hard.

edit 3: Christ the volume on that close. 1.7m shares traded the last minute.

1745524857540.png
 
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TJT

TJT

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Blazin said:
I would have done tariffs that are incremental and increase on a schedule for years. The funds collected would be spent on onshoring key manufacturing back in the US. I would have presented this as a bill through congress , I would have coupled it with the tax bill.
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This realistically cannot survive American politics though. An incremental logical and easy touch is the easiest thing to derail. Hence why the strategy is to simply irreversibly change as much as possible otherwise the above happens.
 
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