Investing General Discussion

Sanrith Descartes · Dec 27, 2019

Blazin said:
Can you explain your plan for if you’re wrong? Say blazin is right and we are in a strong secular trend and it runs another decade plus without the bear marker you fear? What then?

Then I am wrong. Let's flip the scenario. We have a 50% crash and it takes a decade to recover. Where are you? For every buyer who believes things are going up there is a seller who believes the opposite. This is the beauty of the market. One of us will be proven right and one wrong.

Blazin · Dec 27, 2019

Sanrith Descartes said:
Then I am wrong. Let's flip the scenario. We have a 50% crash and it takes a decade to recover. Where are you? For every buyer who believes things are going up there is a seller who believes the opposite. This is the beauty of the market. One of us will be proven right and one wrong.

I will be fully prepared for that, look man I wish I could help you but this a message board is no place for it. You and I 4 hours in an afternoon and I'd be Alladin showing you around on a carpet. The long term trend will change someday and you must learn to wait for it not predict it. They don't come out of no where, there are all sorts of technical and economic data that tells you when to perk your ears up. Stay here long enough and you'll see exactly how I deal with an end of a secular trend.

Step away from zero hedge and realize you must look at the weight of the evidence. ALL OF IT not just cherry picked things that support a preconceived notion.

Cad · Dec 27, 2019

Blazin said:
DON"T FIGHT THE TREND

Blazin · Dec 27, 2019

Sanrith Descartes said:
Then I am wrong. Let's flip the scenario. We have a 50% crash and it takes a decade to recover. Where are you? For every buyer who believes things are going up there is a seller who believes the opposite. This is the beauty of the market. One of us will be proven right and one wrong.

Anyone who misses a secular bull isn't proven right by the subsequent bear. We don't ever go back, bullish expansions can be thousands of percent. You are being driven by fear, I get it been there done that. You are making a mistake. Your human nature is telling you to be smart be safe, and human nature is oft the exact wrong thing to do, this is the challenge of being investor overcoming instinct. I won't waste the time unless you want to be helped, I know exactly how you are thinking I've been there. The market is not for everyone and if the risk is too much for you then stay away, but a bull market changes lives for those willing to stomach it, they are never easy.

In the late 80s the market had climbed out of the previous bear market for a decade, people believed it couldn't go on they would wait, they would be prudent. Well it went on for another 12-13yrs more. And the skeptic wasn't proven right by the 2000 decline. They missed life changing wealth creation.

Blazin · Dec 27, 2019

It can't Possibly go on! Look at the PE RATIOS! CAPE!! DEFICITS!

oh rly

Gravel · Dec 27, 2019

Sanrith Descartes said:
Then I am wrong. Let's flip the scenario. We have a 50% crash and it takes a decade to recover. Where are you? For every buyer who believes things are going up there is a seller who believes the opposite. This is the beauty of the market. One of us will be proven right and one wrong.

So I should sit out the market completely for the chance a black swan event happens, worse than just about any event in our history?

sleevedraw · Dec 27, 2019

TJT said:
You also lose the primary income tax benefit of Roth if you make over some amount. I think it's 75k.

You are thinking of the income cap for being able to deduct on a traditional IRA.

fris said:
Pretty sure the Roth cap is $150k solo, $200k married

Phaseout starts at $122,000 MAGI for single filers / $193,000 for MFJ, phaseout is complete at $137,000 single / $206,000 MFJ (for 2019; it's a couple thousand higher in 2020.)

Next year is going to be really bad tax wise for me and the fiance; we are going to need to deduct like fiends in traditional 401s to make sure we can stay under the Roth limits.

Khane · Dec 27, 2019

Falxy-US said:
It literally takes like five minutes of work. You open an IRA and then transfer the money in. Come back like 2-3 days later then convert to the Roth IRA. Now you have money that will grow tax free. You can hold assets in there that would normally be very tax inefficient, such as bond funds, total stock market index funds, etc, allowing you to grow more wealth. Or you can move it from there to a self directed IRA and then get involved in whatever other types of investing you want, and save on taxes the whole time.

That's completely disingenuous. It's another account to setup, fund and convert and more paperwork to file and process during tax season. And you have to remember to do it every single year. Even a minor headache is still a headache and it's easier for someone like me to just work 40 extra hours a year than do something like this because I have to be diligent about what I did the calendar year before so I don't accidentally misappropriate those tax advantages each year by forgetting to claim and file correctly, which could lead to big penalties.

Don't act like it's a mere 5 minutes of brainless work...

Gurgeh · Dec 27, 2019

Blazin said:
Are you freaking kidding me? You could have said that same thing in 2011, 2013, 2016, and on on . Let me guess it's also propped up by backbacks! Step away from zero hedge man and start actually educating yourself.

Kinda agree with you, there's a storm coming, but... It could very well be in 20 years from now, look at Japan; 200% debt, low interests rates for decades, there's absolutely no telling when that madness will end.

Cad · Dec 27, 2019

Khane said:
That's completely disingenuous. It's another account to setup, fund and convert and more paperwork to file and process during tax season. And you have to remember to do it every single year. Even a minor headache is still a headache and it's easier for someone like me to just work 40 extra hours a year than do something like this because I have to be diligent about what I did the calendar year before so I don't accidentally misappropriate those tax advantages each year by forgetting to claim and file correctly, which could lead to big penalties.

Don't act like it's a mere 5 minutes of brainless work...

It’s also just not that big of a deal, and I’m going to try not to “Vinen” myself here but lets say you work 40 years, and contribute the max every year. Thats $200k or so. So your 200k quadruples over those 40 years to $800k, for $600k in gains. You pay 15-20% on your $600k in gains so we’re talking $90k.

Here’s where I Vinen myself but $90k will make no difference to me one way or the other, and I doubt anybody responsible enough to be doing a fucking Roth every year for 40 years would be in that situation either.

It’s good, yes. Is it the difference between a solvent retirement and not? Fuck no.

Khane · Dec 27, 2019

Well I already Vinend myself when I talked about working an extra 40 hours a year with traditional investment vehicles. I think we are both in agreement, the extra money can be meaningful over a lifetime for a lot of people but is essentially inconsequential for anyone who makes enough to have to backdoor just so they can take advantage of a Roth in the first place

wormie · Dec 27, 2019

90k is still 90k though. Why leave money on the table?

Gurgeh · Dec 27, 2019

wormie said:
90k is still 90k though. Why leave money on the table?

Especialy if it's taxes !

Khane · Dec 27, 2019

wormie said:
90k is still 90k though. Why leave money on the table?

Because its something I have to remember to do year after year and will make no difference to me in the end. I'm not saying it's not worthwhile or that nobody should do it. I just personally can't be bothered after thinking about it.

That's all.

Cad · Dec 27, 2019

Khane said:
Because its something I have to remember to do year after year and will make no difference to me in the end. I'm not saying it's not worthwhile or that nobody should do it. I just personally can't be bothered after thinking about it.

That's all.

I’m not gonna say I can’t be bothered. I’ll do it.

I’m not going to shit myself if I forget. I’ll phrase it that way.

Gravel · Dec 27, 2019

wormie said:
90k is still 90k though. Why leave money on the table?

Life is finite.

If you're one of those people who has a passion for a job, congratulations. If you're the other 90% of people, well, is it really worth trading precious hours of your life for money to buy shit you may not actually want or need?

wormie · Dec 27, 2019

Gravel said:
Life is finite.

If you're one of those people who has a passion for a job, congratulations. If you're the other 90% of people, well, is it really worth trading precious hours of your life for money to buy shit you may not actually want or need?

I hate my job so I wont spend 20 hours over 30-40 years to save 50-60k! Personally, I make fairly decent money per hour of my time but its rarely 2-3k per so to me this seems like an alright deal.

Gravel · Dec 27, 2019

Except he said 40 hours, and not just one year, every year. Over the course of 40 years, that's almost an entire year of "extra" work.

I get it, the allure of extra cushion is appealing. The difficult decision to make is calling enough, enough.

I won't chastise you for making that decision. It's a personal one.

wormie · Dec 27, 2019

Gravel said:
Except he said 40 hours, and not just one year, every year. Over the course of 40 years, that's almost an entire year of "extra" work.

I get it, the allure of extra cushion is appealing. The difficult decision to make is calling enough, enough.

I won't chastise you for making that decision. It's a personal one.

Except he said 5 minutes per year, I was being overly conservative. It’s 40 hours for 40 years total and that is if 40 is your IQ.

Sanrith Descartes · Dec 27, 2019

To clear a few misconceptions. I read a lot of things. You mentioned Zero Hedge a few times. Also Shiller. The cape isnt right? We will see. I dont easily discount Nobel winners. Shiller is a pretty smart guy. Keynes was smart too. We didnt throw Keynesian economic theory in the garbage when it was proven wrong (Stagflation couldn't exist according to Keynes).

I dont trade in fear. I make my decisions (both long and short) on my analysis. Balancing risk isnt fear.

I dont post here looking for the politics version of an investment thread. If you dont get that reference go poke your head in the politics thread (or the impeachment threads). We have differing opinions. As do tens of millions of buyers and sellers every trading day. There isnt a reason we cant discuss our opinions without derision or condescension. At least that is my view. I guess your mileage may vary.

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