Investing General Discussion

  • Guest, it's time once again for the massively important and exciting FoH Asshat Tournament!



    Go here and give us your nominations!
    Who's been the biggest Asshat in the last year? Give us your worst ones!
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
<Aristocrat╭ರ_•́>
44,452
120,409
The issue you have facing you is one of opportunity cost. The money in your energy position is not being used to make you money in another position. So if you sell and realize the loss, reinvest the capital in something moving up, how long before you cover the loss and make profits again. Or you sit it where it is, as dead money, take some dividends and not make anything real.
Energy/oil has a grim outlook long term. I do expect a short term bump once Corona gets resolved.

Disclaimer- I currently am holding some XOM.
 
  • 1Like
Reactions: 1 user
ShakyJake

ShakyJake

<Donor>
7,911
19,955
Sanrith Descartes said:
The issue you have facing you is one of opportunity cost. The money in your energy position is not being used to make you money in another position. So if you sell and realize the loss, reinvest the capital in something moving up, how long before you cover the loss and make profits again. Or you sit it where it is, as dead money, take some dividends and not make anything real.
Energy/oil has a grim outlook long term. I do expect a short term bump once Corona gets resolved.

Disclaimer- I currently am holding some XOM.
Click to expand...
Story of my life: if I were to sell it and move it to somewhere else, then THAT would begin to drop. That's why I haven't bothered to sell because from past experience I'm screwed either way.

I could move it to the VTI (Total Stock Market) fund but hate to jinx that!
 
OU Ariakas

OU Ariakas

Diet Dr. Pepper Enjoyer
<Silver Donator>
7,277
20,321
ShakyJake said:
Story of my life: if I were to sell it and move it to somewhere else, then THAT would begin to drop. That's why I haven't bothered to sell because from past experience I'm screwed either way.

I could move it to the VTI (Total Stock Market) fund but hate to jinx that!
Click to expand...

Don't bring your juju into my VTI!
 
  • 2Worf
  • 1Solidarity
  • 1Like
Reactions: 3 users
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
<Aristocrat╭ರ_•́>
44,452
120,409
ShakyJake said:
Story of my life: if I were to sell it and move it to somewhere else, then THAT would begin to drop. That's why I haven't bothered to sell because from past experience I'm screwed either way.

I could move it to the VTI (Total Stock Market) fund but hate to jinx that!
Click to expand...
The market is up like 20 or 30% the last 12 months. If it is a long term investment you arent going to "jinx" anything. Just move to a non-dog investment and let it do its thing.

My cost basis isnt bad in my XOM, I bought on it's way down in the previous big oil dip. Combined with 5% dividends I'm only down about 8%. I can still see the surface of the water. My personal opinion is you are too deep to breath air anytime in the foreseeable future. I would cut bait in your position, but it's up to you.
 
  • 2Like
Reactions: 1 users
OU Ariakas

OU Ariakas

Diet Dr. Pepper Enjoyer
<Silver Donator>
7,277
20,321
Sanrith Descartes said:
The market is up like 20 or 30% the last 12 months. If it is a long term investment you arent going to "jinx" anything. Just move to a non-dog investment and let it do its thing.

My cost basis isnt bad in my XOM, I bought on it's way down in the previous big oil dip. Combined with 5% dividends I'm only down about 8%. I can still see the surface of the water. My personal opinion is you are too deep to breath air anytime in the foreseeable future. I would cut bait in your position, but it's up to you.
Click to expand...

I am in the same boat with ET, but get this shit. I bought 20k into Sunoco Logistics (SXL) about 5 years ago at around $23 a share because it was my wife's company and it was coming out of a nadir on top having an 8% dividend. Well, SXL is owned by Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) which owned the Dakota Access Pipeline. That pipeline is the one that was in the news a few years ago because of all the native protests and Obama court blockages. Well that fucking pipe construction fell a year behind and tanked ETP's numbers; so to stabilize the parent company the bout SXL out at a 'premium'. It fucking tanked the stock but we held on because now the dividend was like 13% and by that time the pipeline was cleared and going to start producing. Plus we had nothing better to do with the money. Well, 2 years ago Energy Transfer (ET) decided that it was time to end the partnership part of the business because Trump's regulations made the tax benefits better if the company was bigger so they subsumed my ETP and now I own ET. Once again the price dropped and this fucking dog is at around $12.50 a share with about a 10% dividend which makes it worse than what I bought all those years ago. Ironically, with all the dividends I am even at $13 so I am leaving it in to collect the dividend and take it out later this year to put towards something worthwhile.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
<Aristocrat╭ರ_•́>
44,452
120,409
OU Ariakas said:
I am in the same boat with ET, but get this shit. I bought 20k into Sunoco Logistics (SXL) about 5 years ago at around $23 a share because it was my wife's company and it was coming out of a nadir on top having an 8% dividend. Well, SXL is owned by Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) which owned the Dakota Access Pipeline. That pipeline is the one that was in the news a few years ago because of all the native protests and Obama court blockages. Well that fucking pipe construction fell a year behind and tanked ETP's numbers; so to stabilize the parent company the bout SXL out at a 'premium'. It fucking tanked the stock but we held on because now the dividend was like 13% and by that time the pipeline was cleared and going to start producing. Plus we had nothing better to do with the money. Well, 2 years ago Energy Transfer (ET) decided that it was time to end the partnership part of the business because Trump's regulations made the tax benefits better if the company was bigger so they subsumed my ETP and now I own ET. Once again the price dropped and this fucking dog is at around $12.50 a share with about a 10% dividend which makes it worse than what I bought all those years ago. Ironically, with all the dividends I am even at $13 so I am leaving it in to collect the dividend and take it out later this year to put towards something worthwhile.
Click to expand...
That blows. One the realities I faced as an individual investor is that there are so many moving parts to an investment you will probably never calculate for them all. I can scour balance sheets and income statements but the truth is there is always an element of assymentrical information that no matter how much the SEC tries to eliminate, it will always be there.

I would ask if you have checked out the company's cash flows. Is the dividend safe in terms of the company being able to sustain it with ample cash left over? If not are they taking on debt to fund it?
 
  • 1Like
Reactions: 1 user
OU Ariakas

OU Ariakas

Diet Dr. Pepper Enjoyer
<Silver Donator>
7,277
20,321
Sanrith Descartes said:
That blows. One the realities I faced as an individual investor is that there are so many moving parts to an investment you will probably never calculate for them all. I can scour balance sheets and income statements but the truth is there is always an element of assymentrical information that no matter how much the SEC tries to eliminate, it will always be there.

I would ask if you have checked out the company's cash flows. Is the dividend safe in terms of the company being able to sustain it with ample cash left over? If not are they taking on debt to fund it?
Click to expand...

Their cash flow covers it enough that they could raise the distribution and still have extra cash flow; but they are still taking in debt to find long term projects. It is maddening.
 
  • 1Like
Reactions: 1 user
Blazin

Blazin

Creative Title
<Nazi Janitors>
6,936
36,085
Sanrith Descartes said:
Disclaimer- I currently am holding some XOM.
Click to expand...

I took a loss on the spike to $63. Ended up being a $1k loss, which is not that big of a deal, the real frustration for XOM investors, like you mentioned is the lost opportunity. Pretty rare for me to sell during a weak period but always try to make a point to post here and mention when I do lose money. Energy sector is probably going to be a no go for me until it can turn long term averages up. That means not going to get the bottom but we have years of slip that needs to prove to me it's over before I bite again.

Losing Trades over last year:
MMM
SPG
DOW
EEM
XOM


Both MMM and SPG I don't regret selling when I did as both materially worsened post sale. DOW I'm still torn on post company break up. I think it's a great company and a long future but there are market headwinds it just can't seem to move past.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
<Aristocrat╭ರ_•́>
44,452
120,409
I need about $65 to breathe clean air and I believe a combination of a period of good coronavirus news and OPEC cutting supply at the meeting next month can spike it up there. Meantime I am selling weekly ootm covered calls for tiny bits of extra cash. It just went ex-div so that was another 87 cents in the win column.

If it was a smaller or less stable company I would have cut bait, but at this point my biggest challenge is the opportunity cost of the cash invested so I am willing to ride it until the OPEC meeting. I believe it hit it's near term bottom so I am not overly concerned about another serious plunge (said every investor ever 😂).
 
ShakyJake

ShakyJake

<Donor>
7,911
19,955
So what's a good sector for one to dump their money in? Not looking for short term gains but not necessarily very long term either.

Essentially what I'm doing is, instead of keeping a large sum of money in a bank savings account, I'm placing it in an ETF. So it needs to be something I can liquidate quickly if I'm finding myself in need of the cash.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
<Aristocrat╭ರ_•́>
44,452
120,409
ShakyJake said:
So what's a good sector for one to dump their money in? Not looking for short term gains but not necessarily very long term either.

Essentially what I'm doing is, instead of keeping a large sum of money in a bank savings account, I'm placing it in an ETF. So it needs to be something I can liquidate quickly if I'm finding myself in need of the cash.
Click to expand...
An investment vehicle isnt really the place I would recommend for cash that you might need all of a sudden. If I dont read your post correctly and you just mean an ETF with lots of liquidity that wont bone you with big bid/ask spreads then SPY, QQQ are probably decent choices (sp500 and tech respectively)
 
Locnar

Locnar

<Bronze Donator>
2,819
3,132
I've been looking for a tech heavy ETF since tech has been doing better than the S&P. The QQQ you mentioned has a .2 expense ratio. Can you recommend other tech heavy ETFs with a more vangaurd/ishares super low expense ratio?
 
Frenzied Wombat

Frenzied Wombat

Potato del Grande
14,730
31,803
Locnar said:
I've been looking for a tech heavy ETF since tech has been doing better than the S&P. The QQQ you mentioned has a .2 expense ratio. Can you recommend other tech heavy ETFs with a more vangaurd/ishares super low expense ratio?
Click to expand...

FDN has done great for me

Capture.PNG
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
<Aristocrat╭ರ_•́>
44,452
120,409
Locnar said:
I've been looking for a tech heavy ETF since tech has been doing better than the S&P. The QQQ you mentioned has a .2 expense ratio. Can you recommend other tech heavy ETFs with a more vangaurd/ishares super low expense ratio?
Click to expand...
I'm the biggest fan of grinding net expense to 0, but at some point the difference of 10 or 12 basis points starts becoming less of a thing. Especially since most brokerages eliminated trade fees. Even more so if you are trading less than 100k. 20$ per 10k vs 8$ per 10k. So $120 a year on a 100k investment. Again I'm not saying it's not a cost difference but, things like liquidity, bid/ask spreads, turnover %, actual company make-up of the ETFs at some point outweigh a handful of basis points in net fees.

Again, just my amateur opinion.
 
sleevedraw

sleevedraw

Revolver Ocelot
<Bronze Donator>
1,974
5,549
Locnar said:
I've been looking for a tech heavy ETF since tech has been doing better than the S&P. The QQQ you mentioned has a .2 expense ratio. Can you recommend other tech heavy ETFs with a more vangaurd/ishares super low expense ratio?
Click to expand...

FTEC is 0.08. XLK is 0.13. VGT is 0.1.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

You have insufficient privileges to reply here.
<Aristocrat╭ರ_•́>
44,452
120,409
Equities near making all-time highs in all 3 major indexes. TLT (long dated Treasuries 20+ years) near 52-week high. Gold near 52-week high. Even bitcoin back at/over 10k.

Strange times.

Except for energy stocks of course. They still suck.

If everyone is buying stocks, then why is everyone buying long dated treasuries and Gold (traditional safe havens).

And oil is the coronavirus of commodities.
 
Blazin

Blazin

Creative Title
<Nazi Janitors>
6,936
36,085
Simple answer that you know, the world is awash in liquidity it’s the everything bubble and since the inflation stays hidden from CPI the cb’s will just keep pumping, talking about being below their inflation goals.

the only way this comes to an end is an inflation spike that makes them shit their pants. Because technology has been so disinflationary and their qe is primarily absorbed by the wealthy this dynamic can persist.
 
  • 1Like
Reactions: 1 user
Gurgeh

Gurgeh

Silver Baronet of the Realm
4,653
12,604
I think the biggest risk right now is holding cash, it could become worthless overnight, there's just too much of it. As expensive everything might seem (housing, stocks, gold,...) Everyone is using their monopoly money to get a hold everything, anything they can. That's why, imo, anything that doesn't seem uterly worthless is rising so much, a lot of people are anticipating a lot of inflation at some point in the next decade.
 
Khane

Khane

Got something right about marriage
20,336
13,999
That's an interesting take. The idea of the USD becoming worthless has ramifications far greater and much worse than just having unrealized gains or losses in the various markets.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.